Arctic Ice Discussion - 2010 Freeze Up

[oldsnowywizard]

This is from the Alaska NWS..

...OCTOBER 2010 YEAR GROUP AND EARLY WINTER OUTLOOK...

FOUR PREVIOUS YEARS IN OUR RECORDS HAD ICE SIMILAR TO THE 1 OCTOBER

2010 ICE ANALYSIS. THESE YEARS WERE 1995...1998...1999 AND 2005. BY

USING WEATHER PATTERN COMPARISONS FROM THESE YEARS AND COMPARING TO

RECENT WEATHER PATTERS IN 2010 THE YEAR GROUP YEAR IS DETERMINED TO

BE 1995. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LA NINA DEVELOPMENT A COMBINATION OF

1995 AND 1998 WAS USED FOR THE EARLY WINTER OUTLOOK.

2010-2011 EARLY WINTER OUTLOOK

EVENT 2010-2010 OUTLOOK

KIVALINA FIRST ICE 11 OCTOBER

POINT BARROW ICE GREATER THAN 6/10 20 OCTOBER

KIVALINA ICE GREATER THAN 6/10 25 OCTOBER

KOTZEBUE SOUND ICE GREATER THAN 6/10 28 OCTOBER

NORTON SOUND FIRST ICE 20 OCTOBER

NORTON SOUND ICE GREATER THAN 6/10 10 NOVEMBER

KUSKOKWIM BAY FIRST ICE 1 NOVEMBER

BRISTOL BAY FIRST ICE 4 NOVEMBER

COOK INLET FIRST ICE 1 NOVEMBER

COOK INLET FIRST ICE AT NIKISKI 15 NOVEMBER

ICE CONDITIONS FOR COOK INLET SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST

SEASON. ICE CONDITIONS IN THE BERING SEA SHOULD BE MILDER THAN LAST

SEASON IN EXTENT BUT 1 TO 2 WEEKS EARLIER IN DEVELOPMENT.

some much colder conditions are set over the basin which is nice to see... there is indeed a stubborn area of warmer SSTs.. around 6 degrees still, although this area is getting colder and colder... The ice is on the rampage so by Nov this are should be iced up

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.woksat.info/etcsj11/sj11-1224-h-grn-n.html

http://www.woksat.info/etcsj11/sj11-1404-c-grn-w.html

Nice images of Nares (into Baffin) showing that the ice fragmenting into the straight is still able to melt out before exiting into Baffin. We must remember that ,as the image shows, it is our oldest ice that is being flushed away in this process. The same is true of the ice flowing along the North Greenland coast into Fram (and Barrents which is still 'melting ice' at present).

It's good to see such excitment around the growth of F.Y. ice but , in many ways, I'd rather have the older stuff maintain (though leaving less area for F.Y. ice to grow in).

[Yorkshiresnows]

<br />That's from last week YS!<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Apologies,

Watched the latest and posted last weeks in error. I cannot access the link at work, but you can see the latest under Joe B expert blog (under video blog).

Cheers

Y.S

[BornFromTheVoid]

<br /><br /><br />

Apologies,

Watched the latest and posted last weeks in error. I cannot access the link at work, but you can see the latest under Joe B expert blog (under video blog).

Cheers

Y.S

No worries! Will check it out in a bit...

Had a look back at some of the biggest daily sea ice gains for the N.H. on the IJIS stats.

2002 - 226,875km2

2003 - 187,031km2

2004 - 151,406km2

2005 - 218,437km2

2006 - 217,969km2

2007 - 259,844km2

2008 - 205,782km2

2009 - 183,125km2

2010 - 145,469km2 (so far)

Going by the above, it seems we're still due some rather large daily increases yet! The IJIS update just a short while ago gave yesterday the biggest gain so far this month and put us at just under 6,6000,000km2. This leaves us in 4th place out of a possible 9, but with a good chance of catching 2006 in the next 2 weeks (+63,000km2 to the 11th), a small chance of catching 2003 (+371,000km2), but very little chance of catching 2004 (+780,000km2) or 2002 (+1,045,000km2).

[stewfox]

No worries! Will check it out in a bit...

Going by the above, it seems we're still due some rather large daily increases yet! The IJIS update just a short while ago gave yesterday the biggest gain so far this month and put us at just under 6,6000,000km2. This leaves us in 4th place out of a possible 9, but with a good chance of catching 2006 in the next 2 weeks (+63,000km2 to the 11th), a small chance of catching 2003 (+371,000km2), but very little chance of catching 2004 (+780,000km2) or 2002 (+1,045,000km2).

Phenomenal recovery by anyone’s standards.

I see 2007 saw an actual fall of 11,000 for October 11^{th .}

1,335,625 above that figure to date.

What effect with the forecasted temperature abnormalities over the Greenland side have? Perhaps the displaced colder air will encourage ice growth on the Russian side.

200k + tomorrow ? , 7m by weekend ??

Edited October 12, 2010 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

A modest icrease today of 65,000km2, below average but well within normal variability.

In the IJIS concentration images we can see some good growth in the Kara and Laptev sea, where I'd expect the biggest gains over the coming days.

At the same time though, it seems we lost some ice in the C.A.

Edited October 13, 2010 by NaDamantaSam

[Gray-Wolf]

I know I'm a newbie but aren't the figures supposed to go the other way in a recovery??

Edited October 14, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

I guess we should really wait for the update later before making any premature judgments, but looking at the images and the large loss near the Bering strait, there's a chance we may loose even more later!

With the start of a seemingly long -ve AO and NAO period coming up and strong winds carrying lots of ice towards Fram, could we get similar effects to September 2005?

[Gray-Wolf]

I guess we should really wait for the update later before making any premature judgements, but looking at the images and the large loss near the Bering strait, there's a chance we may loose even more later!

With the start of a seemingly long -ve AO and NAO period coming up and strong winds carrying lots of ice towards Fram, could we get similar effects to September 2005?

http://www.woksat.in...03-g-grn-n.html

Let's not forget Nares (and C.A.???) The 'indentation' into the Lincoln Sea appears to be growing and the 'fragmentation' appears to suit fast transport through the strait (lozenge/boat shaped).

Were this a collapse in a cavern/tunnel the 'disturbance' would radiate 7 times the height of the 'cave in', I can think of no other instance to give me guidance as to how much of the Lincoln Sea will be impacted by this 'void space'? If we are to see increased movement in the pack (across the N. of Greenland) then this will surely have some impact to the ice as it flows towards Fram?

EDIT:

I agree we need to wait for the 'update' but with small losses yesterday and the years so close together and 'sideways movements will quicklt drop this years 'recovery' to second lowest on the JAXA graph?

Edited October 14, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[cooling climate]

As stewfox said in a earlier post it is excellent to see the rapid re-growth this

autumn.No telling how thick the ice will be come the end of March, April next year.

Great stuff.

[Methuselah]

Please folks, can we all try and cut out the sarky comments???

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I know I'm a newbie but aren't the figures supposed to go the other way in a recovery??

Apart from the sarcastic comment, it would be nice if, when something unusual happened, like that decrease, you actually posted the figure so those of us that either don't have the URL or the time to look at the raw data.

Is the revision out yet?

[stewfox]

Apart from the sarcastic comment, it would be nice if, when something unusual happened, like that decrease, you actually posted the figure so those of us that either don't have the URL or the time to look at the raw data.

Is the revision out yet?

The map here

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

The 24,687 loss of ice shown here

http://www.ijis.iarc...extent/plot.csv

I would expect when we get the 2nd update a figure close to 0 no gain/loss for yesterday

This really isn't unusual and you can see from a glance at the graph where its happen before at this time or even later in the year

Large gains at this time are not unusual either.

The real interest for me is where we are mid November when the data sets start to cluster .

[BornFromTheVoid]

The map here

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

The 24,687 loss of ice shown here

http://www.ijis.iarc...extent/plot.csv

I would expect when we get the 2nd update a figure close to 0 no gain/loss for yesterday

This really isn't unusual and you can see from a glance at the graph where its happen before at this time or even later in the year

Large gains at this time are not unusual either.

The real interest for me is where we are mid November when the data sets start to cluster .

I might be wrong, but I think the update is out. Wasn't it just 5,000km2 drop this morning? Perhaps it updated a few times...

At a quick glance it looks like the 2nd biggest October drop on the IJIS records.

EDIT: Just updated, gain of 23,000km2! http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

Edited October 14, 2010 by NaDamantaSam

[Gray-Wolf]

I might be wrong, but I think the update is out. Wasn't it just 5,000km2 drop this morning? Perhaps it updated a few times...

At a quick glance it looks like the 2nd biggest October drop on the IJIS records.

Well I've looked through the JAXA data and I'm tending to agree? (I'm gonna re-check though!). With yesterdays 'slowdown' and the upcoming synoptics the next week will be interesting. As I've said the 'JAXA Pack' is all pretty close right now and so a steady slow down will drag this year back into 2nd lowest? Time alone will tell all......

p.s. NDS ,was the bigger loss last year (24th/25th)?

Edited October 14, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well I've looked through the JAXA data and I'm tending to agree? (I'm gonna re-check though!). With yesterdays 'slowdown' and the upcoming synoptics the next week will be interesting. As I've said the 'JAXA Pack' is all pretty close right now and so a steady slow down will drag this year back into 2nd lowest? Time alone will tell all......

p.s. NDS ,was the bigger loss last year (24th/25th)?

Doesn't really matter now but yeah, I think last years was the biggest.

Now back to 3rd lowest extent at the moment. I agree that the next week will be interesting, a case of how much quicker the Arctic can continue growing new ice compared it being lost through Fram. Hopefully today was just a small glitch and we'll be back to the 6 figure growth days soon!

[songster]

I'm interested by Nov 2006 - ice growth levelled right off for almost a whole month. Does anyone know what was going on with wind / currents then? The stall might have helped precondition the pack for the record 2007 losses.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm interested by Nov 2006 - ice growth levelled right off for almost a whole month. Does anyone know what was going on with wind / currents then? The stall might have helped precondition the pack for the record 2007 losses.

Same thing as September 2005 played a big part it seems. General pattern of high pressure over Greenland and the central and Canadian side of the Arctic, low pressure across Barents Sea and the Russian side of the Arctic leading to predominantly strong northerly winds through Fram driving huge volumes of ice into the N. Atlantic.

You can get all the maps here http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkhavnar.htm

An ice animation for Nov 06 here http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Ice displacement plots here http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Displacement&year=2006&month=11&day=14

[oldsnowywizard]

Same thing as September 2005 played a big part it seems. General pattern of high pressure over Greenland and the central and Canadian side of the Arctic, low pressure across Barents Sea and the Russian side of the Arctic leading to predominantly strong northerly winds through Fram driving huge volumes of ice into the N. Atlantic.

You can get all the maps here http://www.wetterzen...en/tkhavnar.htm

An ice animation for Nov 06 here http://www.ijis.iarc...itor.cgi?lang=e

Ice displacement plots here http://www7320.nrlss...month=11&day=14

Ice movement thru the fram normally happens ! It all depends on wind direction , if the ice is s

One big lump or multiple pieces and is going to be affected by ocean movements and wind... Lets wait and see what happens and not assume the worst

Edited October 14, 2010 by jethro
Make your point without the personal comments.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm not happy ... Gw comments like the above are quite frankly pathetic .ice growth and loss will vary considerably as per usual you post an antagonising comment which just riles people .

Ice movement thru the fram normally happens ! It all depends on wind direction , if the ice is s

One big lump or multiple pieces and is going to be affected by ocean movements and wind... Lets wait and see what happens and not assume the worst

Sorry, you're post seems quite jumbled. Are you trying saying my posts are pathetic, just to rile people up and are somehow based on global warming?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ice movement thru the fram normally happens ! It all depends on wind direction , if the ice is s

One big lump or multiple pieces and is going to be affected by ocean movements and wind... Lets wait and see what happens and not assume the worst

Ok, what is the point you're trying to make exactly?

Songster asked what was going on with the wind/currents in November 06 and I offerred a possible explaination and some links to show why I thought so. Did I somehow get it wrong?

As far as I can tell when we have a strong dipole set up, i.e. Summer 2007, November 2006, September 2005, we seem to get lots of ice moving through Fram and generally abnormally large sea ice losses or slow growth rates. Have you got another explaination for these occurrences? I'm more than open to hearing them!

[oldsnowywizard]

Ok, what is the point you're trying to make exactly?

Songster asked what was going on with the wind/currents in November 06 and I offerred a possible explaination and some links to show why I thought so. Did I somehow get it wrong?

As far as I can tell when we have a strong dipole set up, i.e. Summer 2007, November 2006, September 2005, we seem to get lots of ice moving through Fram and generally abnormally large sea ice losses or slow growth rates. Have you got another explaination for these occurrences? I'm more than open to hearing them!

im just not convinced that the setup forcecast automatically means the fram express will happen..not debating the past occurences and know that wind can be am abolsute killer for the ice, i just wonder if at this time of year ice will flow through.. i was more angry at a certain post that has now been deleted thankfully.

[Gray-Wolf]

Just a little 'heads up ' for folk new to this. The 'Fram Express' exports ice out of the Arctic basin but generally not from directly due North of the Strait. The Beaufort Gyre and Trans Polar Drift conspire to circulate the ice to the North of Greenland/Canadian Archipelago and it is this ice that is fed into Fram. Sadly this region is the traditional 'home' of the perennial ice so when the 'Fram Express' is running it is our oldest ice that we lose.

The loss of our perennial through the noughties was the final phase in this process with the 70's/80's/90's allowing the majority of the very old ice to leave through Fram. We are now at a point where we have very little ice beyond 5 years old in the Basin (well, we have a 3,000yr+ old chunk of Ward Hunt floating in amongst the perennial?) and this is very thin compared to the ice that used to live here. The process that flushes the ice out of the basin can also pile the ice up on top of itself along the coastlines here making for some very thick ice in the past. This year (so far) the thin ice has not been able to do this and has just spread out when easterlies have pushed it against the coast (I think we have one small area of 5m+ ice along the coast of Greenland but this may be the 'Ward Hunt' berg).

The ice free Nares is also helping to 'offload' the pressures of compression and at present appears 'ahead of the game' as ice drains and leaves an area of mobile ice and void spaces

.Also, for the first time to my knowledge, some of the channels into the NW Passage (by Melville island?) are also taking ice from the basin into the passage. I am quite interested to see whether this motion allows for a 'free channel' in the passage to feed ice through to Baffin and out of the basin. This would not be good, were it to continue, as these passages are over 4 times as wide as Nares and Nares accounted for 10% of the losses in 07'. Another Drain (summer or winter or both) means a potentially faster exodus of the old ice out of the basin but on the 'easterly wind' that used to compress the ice into thick perennial.

[BornFromTheVoid]

im just not convinced that the setup forcecast automatically means the fram express will happen..not debating the past occurences and know that wind can be am abolsute killer for the ice, i just wonder if at this time of year ice will flow through.. i was more angry at a certain post that has now been deleted thankfully.

To me at least, the ice seems very mobile. For the last 2 days the ice nearing the Bering strait had gotten pushed back to the north pole and across the East Siberian Sea, while there has been just weak winds pushing it in that direction.

Ice has been slowly spreading down the east Greenland coast for quite a while now without a whole lot of push, so this causes me to think that when the push comes, things could really pick up speed!

At this time of the year it's very unlikely that in a worst case scenario with the "Fram exrpress" at full tilt, that we would see a reduction in ice extent. Much more likely to just slow growth considerably.

Of course I and the models may turn out wrong, but even if it does occur it's unlikely to last for more than a week. The results should be interesting one way or the other.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi NDS!

My concern is the 'massing ' of the ice straight across the channel (from Frans Joseph to Svalbard). Any sudden imputus from the pole towards Fram puts a lot of ice into the Fram Straight/North Atlantic.

All of this ice endured the summer so it would be a shame to swap it for 'F.Y. ice'.