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New Iceage? Much Evidence? - Global Cooling


Cymro

Do you believe the world is Cooling or Heating up?  

290 members have voted

  1. 1. In your opinion, is the world's surface tempreature increasing o'r decreasing?

    • Definetly Increasing
    • Seems to be increasing
    • Staying the same
    • Seems to be decreasing
    • Definetly decreasing


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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

I have just finished reading 'Not by Fire but by Ice' The author cites magnetic reversal as being the trigger. In his opinion, all reversals correlate very well with ice ages and extinctions.

According to the book, every period of warmth, every interglacial, lasted almost exactly 11,500 years followed by an ice age and has returned like clockwork for millions of years.

He is also of the opinion that all previous magnetic reversals were preceded by declining geomagnetic field intensity as it is today and may be a precursor to a new reversal attempt.

Magnetic reversals cause extinctions. Magnetic reversals trigger earthquakes and volcanoes. Magnetic reversals drive mountains into the sky. Magnetic reversals shoot electricity through the soil and magnetic reversals cause rising and falling seas. Magnetic reversals cause ice ages and the book basically explains how it is done with underwater volcanism being the main player. Something else to add to the mix I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Not a shread of evidence to say it's decreasing but still a fair few votes for it....You've got to laugh...

Ignorance is bliss to the snow brigade!

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Posted
  • Location: Vale of York: 14m above mean sea level
  • Location: Vale of York: 14m above mean sea level

Ignorance is bliss to the snow brigade!

Some people believe the global warming of the last few decades peaked in 2007 and we are at the start of a cooling trend which could last for another 5 - 20 years or so... or even longer if you believe the sun is the main driver. Its too early to tell but this is not Ignorance its based on theory's of solar cycles and/or shifts in sea surface temperature ... Warming or cooling its just a question of what time range you are looking at.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Some people believe the global warming of the last few decades peaked in 2007 and we are at the start of a cooling trend which could last for another 5 - 20 years or so... or even longer if you believe the sun is the main driver. Its too early to tell but this is not Ignorance its based on theory's of solar cycles and/or shifts in sea surface temperature ... Warming or cooling its just a question of what time range you are looking at.

Indeed, and as we measure global temperature as a deviation from a normal mean (1961-1990, see here,PDF) and that the normal period is 30 years, how can it make sense to view a trend in anything less than a multiple of 30 years? To put it another way, I would say, from the first moment since the excessive high ENSO peak in 1998, you will have to wait at least 30 years before the signal in the trend is not only apparent, but it is statistically valid - and in all probability you will need to wait longer than our life-times.

Everything else, I'm afraid, is arbitrary. Not to say that we are not at the start of cooling period, but using the measures that we use, it is impossible to tell with any degree of certainty, and any claims for this or that regarding a reversal of a multi-decadel trend must be treated as speculation.

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Indeed, and as we measure global temperature as a deviation from a normal mean (1961-1990, see here,PDF) and that the normal period is 30 years, how can it make sense to view a trend in anything less than a multiple of 30 years? To put it another way, I would say, from the first moment since the excessive high ENSO peak in 1998, you will have to wait at least 30 years before the signal in the trend is not only apparent, but it is statistically valid - and in all probability you will need to wait longer than our life-times.

This whole 30 year thing is a bit silly aswell, why not take the average over a longer period? 30 years is but a speck of sand in the ocean, we don't take that one grain of sand and say all are the same. We could easily take averages over 50 years with the information we now have. I'm not sure how far records go back, but do they go back far enough to get a 100 year average? The way people are talking it would seem the longer we can take records back the colder the average will become, but I don't think thats true because we've seen warmer trends throughout history that time has just seemed to forget....for reasons unbeknownst to the general public.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

we're currently experiencing one of the warmest years on record with many places experiencing exceptonal summer heatwaves and nowhere in the S Hemisphere having an especially cold winter overall.

So when exactly is it all meant to start?

Those that live in the Southern Hemisphere have recorded in various locations an exceptionally cold winter

http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_c726921d-9305-5216-b4be-4e1331ea62f7.html

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

I have just finished reading 'Not by Fire but by Ice'

Great book isn't it :) But to climate what Von Daniken is to history.

I loved the bit about the dinosuars dying out because of a sudden massive storm burying them all under hundreds of feet of snow!

Those that live in the Southern Hemisphere have recorded in various locations an exceptionally cold winter

http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_c726921d-9305-5216-b4be-4e1331ea62f7.html

They've had some cold spells. But overall not an especially cold winter. Australia had a lot less snow than usual (hence the delight from skiers when they finally got some heavy falls in late August) and Darwin, for example, recorded it's mildest July night on record.

The Jun-Aug temp anomalies show many parts of the S Hemisphere having had a rather warm summer

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/images/map-blended-mntp-201006-201008.gif

Though parts of S America were cold, that is not IMO a sign of a cooling world.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Great book isn't it :D But to climate what Von Daniken is to history.

I loved the bit about the dinosuars dying out because of a sudden massive storm burying them all under hundreds of feet of snow!

Do you give any credence to his theory supporting magnetic reversal Essan? Just wondered.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

This whole 30 year thing is a bit silly aswell, why not take the average over a longer period? 30 years is but a speck of sand in the ocean, we don't take that one grain of sand and say all are the same. We could easily take averages over 50 years with the information we now have. I'm not sure how far records go back, but do they go back far enough to get a 100 year average? The way people are talking it would seem the longer we can take records back the colder the average will become, but I don't think thats true because we've seen warmer trends throughout history that time has just seemed to forget....for reasons unbeknownst to the general public.

Well, what number? Certainly not the last ten years, that's for sure ....

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

Do you give any credence to his theory supporting magnetic reversal Essan? Just wondered.

I think it's possible that geomagnetic reversal or excursion occurring when orbital cycles are already promoting a glacial epoch may result in an intensification of the glacial epoch. Though we really don't understand the cause and effects of such things - so this is purely speculation.

However, the last full reversal was 780,000 years ago. Which I don't think coincided with any unusually severe ice age or extinction event? And I'm not aware of any serious mainstream research (bearing in mind that this would be major award winning stuff if you could prove it) that shows that the colder phases of the last glacial coincided with magnetic excursions? In any case, such excursions occuring during a glacial would have very different consequences to one occuring today when there are few pre-existing ice caps to advance. So if such a event happened in the near future we woud not see an ice age.

Edit: I should say it's a few years since I last read Felix's book. Maybe I should dig it out from the 'black library'?

Edited by Essan
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

They've had some cold spells. But overall not an especially cold winter. Australia had a lot less snow than usual (hence the delight from skiers when they finally got some heavy falls in late August) and Darwin, for example, recorded it's mildest July night on record.

The Jun-Aug temp anomalies show many parts of the S Hemisphere having had a rather warm summer

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/images/map-blended-mntp-201006-201008.gif

Though parts of S America were cold, that is not IMO a sign of a cooling world.

Definitely not a sign of cooling, but plenty of the southern hemisphere did have a cold winter.

post-6901-011510000 1285510277_thumb.gif

That being said, it still looks above average overall to me.

Personally, I see no sign of any global cooling. There are some factors such as the low solar activity and the PDO switching to a predominantly negative state which may cause some levelling out or perhaps slight cooling over time, but it isn't doing it currently and there's no guarantee that it will...

Edit: Post number 1000 :D

Edited by NaDamantaSam
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

An appeal to all those lurkers......

So far, there have been 69 votes cast in this poll, the number of regular posters in this part of the forum is far less than that; it would be a far more interesting place if you all joined in.

Please, please do more than just vote, become a regular contributor.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Some overreaction in this thread i have to say..

Firstly, i have not seen anybody saying that we have been in a solar minima, the solar cycle is widely acknowleged and we achieved the solar minimum in November 2008, solar activity is actually increasing again.

Secondly, in regards to the Maunder Minimum, it is true that over the next century solar activity will be quite low which may have an effect on global temperatures, however you can not claim it has started on the basis of solar activity increasing later than expected and probably not to the same level as forecast, though from 2015, we are likely to see prolonged minima.

Lastly, right now global temperatures are increasing, primarily lead by thermal ocean expansion, nobody can deny this.

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Some overreaction in this thread i have to say..

Firstly, i have not seen anybody saying that we have been in a solar minima, the solar cycle is widely acknowleged and we achieved the solar minimum in November 2008, solar activity is actually increasing again.

Secondly, in regards to the Maunder Minimum, it is true that over the next century solar activity will be quite low which may have an effect on global temperatures, however you can not claim it has started on the basis of solar activity increasing later than expected and probably not to the same level as forecast, though from 2015, we are likely to see prolonged minima.

Lastly, right now global temperatures are increasing, primarily lead by thermal ocean expansion, nobody can deny this.

the gulf stream is weaker then it should be and has been for 4 months now

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

Some overreaction in this thread i have to say..

Firstly, i have not seen anybody saying that we have been in a solar minima, the solar cycle is widely acknowleged and we achieved the solar minimum in November 2008, solar activity is actually increasing again.

Secondly, in regards to the Maunder Minimum, it is true that over the next century solar activity will be quite low which may have an effect on global temperatures, however you can not claim it has started on the basis of solar activity increasing later than expected and probably not to the same level as forecast, though from 2015, we are likely to see prolonged minima.

Lastly, right now global temperatures are increasing, primarily lead by thermal ocean expansion, nobody can deny this.

You make for good points I must admit. However although there are anomalies in the earth's climate we cannot proclaim this all to be "warming either" both arguments will always contradict and there will never be agreement only time can tell.

However to the posts aking why do we only look back 30 years or so on sea ice and tempreature, basically because only since the 70s have creditable and accurate readings and measurements been kept which we can compare to. What I don't agree with however is how people abuse these figures to try and call armageddon. Nature has a wonderful way of balancing thing's out as such some proclaim the gulf stream will weaken creating a cooler climate in the north allowing ice sheets to expand again thus balancing out the over all increase in tempreatures seen in the central belt of the World, Africa comes to mind. Others will argue that this phenomenon isn't happening. But for one reaction to take place i.e global warming another one is inevitable triggerd and that is melting of ice caps cooler and fresher water wich is lighter, this will then slow down prolific currents in the ocean which causes alot ot the earth warming i.e Gulf stream. Both arguments have good reasoning and good cause for backing, which ever you believe is your choice, however nobody has the right to proclaim their evidence is stronger than others and cause silly little arguments like have happened on this thread so far. Why not try and listen to eachothers views and have a sensible debate?

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Why not try and listen to eachothers views and have a sensible debate?

The problem is views not based on (potentially) misconstrued quantitative fact. Of course, science is not a collection of facts, but rather the process of interpretation of those facts. That the world is warming, and that the artic is melting are both facts. What that means, qualitatively, is something else entirely.

I could have a view that the world is flat and is held up by turtles. Regardless of the qualitative nature of that view, it is (completely) unsupported by any quantitative facts (or evidence, or data, if you prefer) And, therefore, I wouldn't expect people to pay for much purchase to such a view - and it is certainly no grounds for a 'sensible debate'

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

The problem is views not based on (potentially) misconstrued quantitative fact. Of course, science is not a collection of facts, but rather the process of interpretation of those facts. That the world is warming, and that the artic is melting are both facts. What that means, qualitatively, is something else entirely.

I could have a view that the world is flat and is held up by turtles. Regardless of the qualitative nature of that view, it is (completely) unsupported by any quantitative facts (or evidence, or data, if you prefer) And, therefore, I wouldn't expect people to pay for much purchase to such a view - and it is certainly no grounds for a 'sensible debate'

So your saying that the weakening of the Gulf stream and the low sunspots are not fact backed up by good evidence which they are? That's kind of a slippery slope

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Some overreaction in this thread i have to say..

Firstly, i have not seen anybody saying that we have been in a solar minima, the solar cycle is widely acknowleged and we achieved the solar minimum in November 2008, solar activity is actually increasing again.

Secondly, in regards to the Maunder Minimum, it is true that over the next century solar activity will be quite low which may have an effect on global temperatures, however you can not claim it has started on the basis of solar activity increasing later than expected and probably not to the same level as forecast, though from 2015, we are likely to see prolonged minima.

Lastly, right now global temperatures are increasing, primarily lead by thermal ocean expansion, nobody can deny this.

we are in a solar minimum and will continue this way into the next cycle as most solar scientist expect this to be the case.

although activity has increased its way way down on recent cycles this i feel will have an effect on global temps over time along with rise in volcanic activity which has also seemed to be more active now solar output is lower,plus the jet streams behavour has changed add pdo amo i can only see a decline for awhile.

but all this said alot of people talk of rising of global temps but this is only over a 30 year average,

but this has been the subject of debate because of the medievil warm period which is said to be warmer than today if this is the case then maybe we have more warming to come before the earth cools,

but in my opion the warm stretch is coming to an end.

but i think alot of people dont understand that an ice age is not like the day after tomorrow movie its a slow process,

and im very much into the solar particals theory aswell.

but over all nobody really knows the future they can only guess wat will happen from past events.

and no matter what anyone says there is evidence on both sides which leads me to my point its all to soon to really know the answers.

Edited by badboy657
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

What weakening of the Gulf Stream?

Mind, even if it switched off altogether we'd struggle to be as cold as we were in Britain in the 1970s .... :)

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

So your saying that the weakening of the Gulf stream and the low sunspots are not fact backed up by good evidence which they are? That's kind of a slippery slope

You missed the point that I was making.

Yes, that might well be quantitative evidence, but what does it mean?

I will not presuppose what point you are trying to make, but, if I may, I will make an addendum: assuming that low sunspots, and a weak gulf-stream spell an imminent cold spell why is the long term trend still up, and, exactly when do you predict that they will go down? For how long, and for what reason?

The regulars around here will know I am not being specious, here: indeed, I have long argued for sunspots to be a key indicator of climate. My research, however, points to temperatures up and up and up (possibly a 3 decade drop in about 7 years or so)

But, evidence is evidence is evidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

Here's the global temperature graph, and whilst some years buck the trend, the long term trend is pretty clear..

dn11639-2_808.jpg

I'm not denying those figures but for such an increase to happen its got to have some counter effect i.e melting of ice caps will release lower density water into the oceans thus blocking the gulf stream which in turn would allow for ice build up and then a balancing off cooling off?. And my argument is are we starting to see this? Some scientist say that the reduction of the gulf streams activity has been as much as 25% since the 70s. Now surly this is a counter argument to the global tempreatures increasing and is the onset effect of this?

You missed the point that I was making.

Yes, that might well be quantitative evidence, but what does it mean?

I will not presuppose what point you are trying to make, but, if I may, I will make an addendum: assuming that low sunspots, and a weak gulf-stream spell an imminent cold spell why is the long term trend still up, and, exactly when do you predict that they will go down? For how long, and for what reason?

The regulars around here will know I am not being specious, here: indeed, I have long argued for sunspots to be a key indicator of climate. My research, however, points to temperatures up and up and up (possibly a 3 decade drop in about 7 years or so)

But, evidence is evidence is evidence.

Many have misunderstood and seem to think I am of the opinion that there is some kind of ice age imminent when I am not. That whole logic is even laughable no climate will drastically change liek that over night, what I'm advocating is are we beginning to see signs of increased global ice, cooler tempreatures balancing off and as such nature reacting to the colosal effect we have had on the earths temperature?. There have been warmer periods in the past only to be offset by cooler periods its happened throughout history and there is no reason why this isn't the case now.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

I'm not denying those figures but for such an increase to happen its got to have some counter effect i.e melting of ice caps will release lower density water into the oceans thus blocking the gulf stream which in turn would allow for ice build up and then a balancing off cooling off?. And my argument is are we starting to see this? Some scientist say that the reduction of the gulf streams activity has been as much as 25% since the 70s. Now surly this is a counter argument to the global tempreatures increasing and is the onset effect of this?

Well, no.

The Gulf stream is all about NW Europe, mainly. If there is some climatic effect going on, you should, I think, be able to see it in the CET series. Funnily enough, I've some reasonably serious natural cycle analysis, in a sort of mathematical way, of the CET, here.

It doesn't make pretty reading - but if you are looking for the Gulf Stream signal in climate - the CET is the source I think you should be looking at - especially if it's been in decline since 1970 (ish) - it should be obvious and clear.

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

Ice Age? I am not so sure. However I definitely think there are patterns beginning to develop now which contrive to suggest that there is certainly a period of cooling taking place. Last winter was a sign of our descent from "global warming". I had backed an unusually cold winter last year and this year I am on record as backing the same thing. I do not know what to make of the North Atlantic Current debacle however going by satellite images it certainly appears as if these "scaremongerers" could very well be right about its decline.

Village Plank....Good point, couldn't agree more.

Edited by WhiteXmas
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Adam, the question you're asking in the poll is whether global temperatures are rising - the answer to that is yes, there really can't be any doubt?

Beyond that - I'm no climate scientist and we all know about the opposing views on this subject, but from a purely statistical point of view it'll take the mother of all swings to bring it back to levels we were seeing even 20 years ago, and even if a number of cooling factors came into play, who's to say they'll do anything more than slow the rise?

This next year could be an interesting test - not much sun activity and a major la nina likely, it should in theory mean a big drop in global temps in the shorter term I would imagine - how low will they go though? If they don't drop much when those two factors are in play then it's virtually impossible to see anything other than a continued long term rise imo - and that's completely ignoring the co2 debate..

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