October Cet

[summer blizzard]

Yes the tempreature hasn't been quite has high as expected this weekend, perhaps down to cloud cover in the east yesterday. Today however where they were forecasting 21/22 the temptreature will most propably only hit 18 at best. Sun is particulary strong this time of year.

It certainly has been much warmer than average, led by high minima however i think people were expecting too much in terms of 25C+, because from October onward even with high upper air temperatures, there simply is'nt as big a lapse rate as June, we had an easterly flow limiting maxima and as soon as the core of the high shifts west from October onward you can potentially be in inversion territory due to night being longer than day (remeber that just a month from now 5 years ago, Benson was recording -10C minima under direct high pressure).

[TonyH]

Yes the tempreature hasn't been quite has high as expected this weekend, perhaps down to cloud cover in the east yesterday. Today however where they were forecasting 21/22 the temptreature will most propably only hit 18 at best. Sun is particulary strong this time of year.

Should reach 20c today in parts of CET land so not a bad forecast, certainly feels very warm here at 19c with the strong October sunshine and only a light breeze.

Cloudy nights in the main for central parts this coming week should keep minima mild even if maxima are closer to average.

[Weather-history]

Any cold weather in October can really bite into the CET. No more so than during October 1926

CET trackometer

1. 11.8

2. 12.8

3. 13.7

4. 14.4

5. 14.3

6. 14.3

7. 14.2

8. 14.2

9. 13.8

10. 13.3

11. 12.9

12. 12.8

13. 12.8

14. 12.8

15. 12.4

16. 12.1

17. 11.8

18. 11.3

19. 10.8

20. 10.5

21. 10.1

22. 9.9

23. 9.6

24. 9.3

25. 9.1

26. 8.9

27. 8.7

28. 8.6

29. 8.5

30. 8.3

31. 8.1

[Gavin P]

Blimey, thats over a 6c drop in under a month!

Edited October 10, 2010 by Gavin P

[AderynCoch]

The second half of October 1926 averaged a mere 4.0C. Is that the coldest on record?

Clearly the CET is still wide open for this month.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 13.7C today (Oct 1 - 10). All downhill from now on I suspect.

[TonyH]

Rather unlikely to finish below average what with this week average to slightly above. Would need a very cold spell towards the end.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yep, some big drops to be expected over the coming week at least.

Minimum for today is 7.6C and maxima look around 16C, so we will drop back to 13.6 or 13.5C by tomowrrows update. Minimum for tonight will be similar to last night but maxima tomorrow should be around 2C lower so a drop to 13.3C to the 12th looks likely.

Going by the 06z GFS, we should be at 12.7C by the 14th, 12.3C by the 16th and 11.8C by the 18th.

I'd guess 11.4C-12C by the 20th. If we get 11.5C by the 20th, we'd need to average just under 9C per day for the remainder of the month to reach average, and under 4.5C each day to reach 9C.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley just in and we have a 0.1C drop since yesterday with the CET on 13.6C (Oct 1 - 11).

How much overnight cloud we have in the CET zone will be the key to this week's figures. The models are currently pointing to a drastic cool down next week with a a chilly Artic Maritime blast lasting to the following weekend. These sometimes have a habit of being downgraded nearer the time but cool overall seems to be the theme.

[Stu_London]

In the reliable timeframe, the daily CET looks around 10C ish. Just beyond the reliable timeframe, we could see values a lot lower than that.

I can see up being in the range of 10.5C to 11.0C as we go into the final week. Below average (both 61-90 and 71-00) still possible, Sub 10C not so likely, but couldn't rule out totally.

Strangly, given the CET is 13.6 as at today, I can't really see a finish above 12C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum for today is down as 6.9C, and maxima will probably be around 14C, so a drop to 13.3C by tomorrow looks a good bet.

After that it looks as though we will see a string of sub 10C CET days. Tonight looks like being quite cool, somewhere around 4C, maybe lower, with max temperatures only around 14C, so a drop of 0.3C to 13.0C likely by then.

Going by the 06z GFS, we'll be at 12.5C by the 15th, 11.9C by the 17th and 11.6C by the 19th.

[Fozfoster]

Minimum for today is down as 6.9C, and maxima will probably be around 14C, so a drop to 13.3C by tomorrow looks a good bet.

After that it looks as though we will see a string of sub 10C CET days. Tonight looks like being quite cool, somewhere around 4C, maybe lower, with max temperatures only around 14C, so a drop of 0.3C to 13.0C likely by then.

Going by the 06z GFS, we'll be at 12.5C by the 15th, 11.9C by the 17th and 11.6C by the 19th.

And 10.8 by the 31st. LOL

[Don]

And 10.8 by the 31st. LOL

Nah, 10.9C by the 31st!

[Fozfoster]

Nah, 10.9C by the 31st!

You mite be right, but with adjustments 10.8c:drinks: LOL

[Evening thunder]

Yeah.. I think 10.8C too. (after adjustments of course)

[Kentish Man]

Hadley recorded a surprisingly large 0.4C daily fall in the CET yesterday so we are now on 13.2C (Oct 1 - 12).

From my perspective in Kent overnight temps under cloud cover have been holding up quite well so I guess the chill was more pronounced in the west of the CET area yesterday.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Hadley recorded a surprisingly large 0.4C daily fall in the CET yesterday so we are now on 13.2C (Oct 1 - 12).

From my perspective in Kent overnight temps under cloud cover have been holding up quite well so I guess the chill was more pronounced in the west of the CET area yesterday.

We could see some very large falls from later this week with the cooler/colder period being shown in the models.

[Stu_London]

Hadley recorded a surprisingly large 0.4C daily fall in the CET yesterday so we are now on 13.2C (Oct 1 - 12).

From my perspective in Kent overnight temps under cloud cover have been holding up quite well so I guess the chill was more pronounced in the west of the CET area yesterday.

Yesterday came in at 9.9C and last nights minimum was 5.1C, so a further drop of 0.3C is likely tomorrow.

I must say the falls are coming in a little faster than I thought so if we do get our cold shot in the final third of the month, some of the guesses lower down the list, even some sub 10C ones might come into play.

Edit: GFS 06z is particularly chilly. Something around 11.3C by the 20th and 9.4C by the 28th if it played out exactly. Usual caveats about FI and GFS temp predictors apply

Edited October 13, 2010 by Stu_London

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the models it looks like the main cusp of the cold weather does not arrive until the 19th, so any drops until then are a bonus. Around average looks likely to me, though i would favour slightly above average.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Looking at the models it looks like the main cusp of the cold weather does not arrive until the 19th, so any drops until then are a bonus. Around average looks likely to me, though i would favour slightly above average.

Well we had a 0.4c drop yesterday and possibly 0.3c today. I think a week of good cold weather (which looks increasingly likely) could lead to some large drops, especially with low night time mins predicted. I think sub 10c is still achievable

[Stu_London]

Looking at the models it looks like the main cusp of the cold weather does not arrive until the 19th, so any drops until then are a bonus. Around average looks likely to me, though i would favour slightly above average.

From a selfish point of view (re: my guess) I would like you to be correct.

However, I can definately see below average and sub 10 looks about 50/50 to me

[Stu_London]

12.9C to the 13th

Yesterday came in at 8.5C

Today will be similar (last night was 5.6C and maxes will struggle to get much past 11 or 12 today)

So 12.6 looks likely tomorrow.

At the moment we are 1.0C above average - that could be wiped out before we get the even colder weather.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The odd thing about the last few days is the models have consistently over-estimated the maxima and under-estimated the minima.

Looks like some very big drops to come and a few sub 10C maximas.

CET currently 12.85C, minimum today is 5.6C and if maxima can stay lower than yesterday we will drop to 12.5C, if not then 12.6C as Stu said.

Going by the 06z GFS, it looks like we'll be at 12.1C to the 16th, 11.8C to the 18th, 11.3C to the 20th and 10.9C by the 21st!

If we do end up at 10.9C by the 21st, we'd only need to average 9.9C for the final 10 days to reach the 61-90 figure. We'd require a 6.8C/day to get 1C below... my 9.3C might still be in with a small chance, but is probably the absolute lowest we have a shot at reaching!

[Paul T]

Next wed and Thurs could see mean days of 4.5oC. The would hit the cet big time.

I believe that this time next week we will be high 10's. Then general cool weather, with the odd mild day towards month end.

mid-10's for me.

Edited October 14, 2010 by Paul T

[BornFromTheVoid]

Next wed and Thurs could see mean days of 4.5oC. The would hit the cet big time.

I believe that this time next week we will be high 10's. Then general cool weather, with the odd mild day towards month end.

mid-10's for me.

Looks to me like the 18z shows Thursday and Friday averaging more like 3C! It would also have us down to 10.5C by the 22nd!