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AderynCoch

Hurricane Lisa

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94L has been upgraded to a tropical depression west of Cape Verde, and is close to becoming Tropical Storm Lisa:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.1N 31.9W

ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Motion in the short-term is forecast to be generally to the north. Doesn't have much of a future by the looks of things.

The Navy/NRL site has upgraded Fourteen to Lisa. Still waiting on the NHC.

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NHC have just confirmed it's now TS Lisa, There will be no Recon with Lisa, and she will be pretty boring I am afraid(sorry for anybody called Lisa)

ENHANCED INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH AN AMSU

OVERPASS..INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE FORMING NEAR THE

CIRCULATION CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING

FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAVE COOLED TO -70 CELSIUS.

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH

TAFB AND SAB. THESE ESTIMATES ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 39 KT

SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE DEPRESSION TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.

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I wouldn't right off lisa just yet, tropics have a strange nack of doing the unexpected.

at201014.gif

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My fiance's called Lisa and she's never boring - very creative actually - and also very fiery at times - seems this storm may stay in the tropical waters for the moment and that may well set her off!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Well the track for Lisa has already shifted wildly this afternoon, from a northward track to a more west-northwesterly one. There are uncertainties therefore, of just what conditions Lisa will experience. The further north Lisa goes, the more hostile the environment. If she chooses the more west-northwesterly track, Lisa may have a future. The slow motion at present makes predicting just what Lisa will do very difficult.

Intensity is currently 40kts.

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As i suggested in the wave thread, Tropical Storm Lisa will turn westward once it reaches about 40W, it should also increase speed, other than a bit of easterly shear and dry air there are no real obstacles and it should maintain a westward track until it approaches Haiti provided it survives.

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Possibility of some heavy rainfall from this affecting the cannery Islands

20100921.2045.f16.x.composite.14LLISA.40kts-1002mb-182N-316W.99pc.jpg

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Lisa looks poised for some more intensification- convection has really increased near the centre now and banding is becoming more evident. NHC bring Lisa to hurricane status before conditions deteriorate (elevated shear and dry air).

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Lisa looks to be barely a TS atm Dvorak estimates actually put her below TS strength,

She is suffering from verticle Shear and lack of instability, with a dose of SST's which arn't high enough to compensate. SST's are between 27 and 28C, if it does go north atm they will drop below 27C.

I have to admit I still can't see this getting anywhere near the west coastal areas, if it survives.

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Lisa appears to be performing a clockwise loop as the storm is now heading southwards. Quite an unusual track for where it is but typical of a storm trapped in weak steering currents.

Lisa's main enemy at the moment is dry air, preventing strengthening and keeping convection at modest amounts. Her second problem is she is parked over waters cooled by Julia, and the slow motion herself is making waters even colder. Her third problem in a day or so will be 30-40kts of shear. With all this in mind, intensification, if it even occurs, will be very modest.

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Lisa has weakened to tropical depression status with intensity falling to 30kts. Very little convection resides near the increasingly ill defined LLC. Lisa runs the risk of degenerating into a remnant low at any time today unless convection makes a comeback. NHC forecasts Lisa to survive today, and begin to move northwestwards away from an upper level low to the northeast. Modest intensification is then forecast as outflow improves a little, but Lisa will still be over marginal sea surface temps, and in a rather dry/stable environment. If Lisa survives this long, an increase in shear in around 3 days time should put the final nail in the coffin.

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LIsa has regained tropical storm status with intensity now at 35kts. Convection has expanded over the LLC and banding features are becoming evident once more. Outflow is fair in all directions, and this favourable factor is probably what has caused Lisa's comeback as water temps are still marginal and the air quite dry. As conditions are not expected to especially hostile over the next day or so, Lisa has the opportunity to strengthen a little, however, significant intensity gains are not likely due to the marginal environment.

Lisa is still practically stationary with perhaps a small eastward overall motion over the last 24hrs. However, a faster northwesterly motion should commence by tomorrow afternoon. This will send Lisa into higher shear which will induce weakening and eventual dissipation over the open atlantic.

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Lisa is looking pretty good right now, and is the strongest it's ever been, with intensity rising to 50kts. Lisa has developed a central dense overcast, and there are even hints of a partial eye wall. The storm is finally moving too, with a northerly motion having taken place this afternoon. Lisa has about 12hrs left of reasonably low shear and fair outflow to perhaps intensify by antother 5kts or so before shear rips the storm apart.

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Lisa made good use of the marginal sea temps and good outflow to become a hurricane this morning. This was in line with original forecasts, and not with latter forecasts which is interesting. Lisa has accelerated northwards this afternoon into increasing shear, and accordingly, convection has eroded enough to make Lisa lose hurricane status with intensity falling to 60kts. Lisa will continue northwards into even stronger shear over the next few days, however, sea temperatures won't get any colder. In addition, the NHC mention that the upper air will be cold which will create high levels of instability, increasing convection. Lisa has coped well and even strengthened in waters of 25C, so Lisa could hold off dissipation in the unstable air over the next several days.

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Lisa, being a small system, has not dealt with the increasing shear well. The LLC looks increasingly disorganised, the convection is rather messy and has decreased in coverage over the last 6 hours. With shear set to get stronger, it looks like it will overcome the marginally favourable sea temps and high instability and kill Lisa in a day or two.

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The Atlantic drifts into a spell of quietness.

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