Two Day Convective Outlook Usa

[knocker]

Is there any interest ion this sort of info?

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1255 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN KS INTO SRN AND ERN

NEB...CNTRL IA AND NWRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL CA

AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY...FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS

THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST...BUT WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR

ALOFT IN A NWLY FLOW REGIME EXTENDING SWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. AT

THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ACROSS SRN NEB...WITH SLY

BRINGS BRINGING MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD AS LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPS NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER.

...NRN KS/SRN NEB INTO IA AND NRN MO...

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE

DEEPENS OVER WRN KS/ERN CO. DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE WILL

SPREAD NWD INTO KS AND SRN NEB WHERE A SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL THIS

AFTERNOON AS WINDS N OF THE FRONT VEER TO ELY. STRONG HEATING AND

PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES

WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING

MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE FIRST

ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DRY

ADIABATIC. THESE STORMS MAY BE HIGH BASED INITIALLY...BUT WILL

LIKELY FORM INTO SUPERCELLS AS THEY SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS BY 00Z AS WELL AS LOW

LEVEL VEERING IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED

TORNADOES. TRAINING SUPERCELLS...SOME BOWING AND PRODUCING DAMAGING

WIND...SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A

SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT AND MAINTAINS INFLOW. ACTIVITY

SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS'S WITH MAINLY A

DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO IA AND NWRN MO BY THE END

OF THE PERIOD.

...WRN NC/NWRN SC...

A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS

WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING TO PRODUCE MARGINAL

INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES. ALTHOUGH

MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO

FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC INTO NWRN SC. NWLY FLOW ALOFT

ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES INDICATE A

THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS BY LATE

AFTERNOON.

-----------------------------------

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1252 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW FIELD ALOFT ARE EXPECTED

THIS PERIOD...WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND

SRN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND A LOW/TROUGH REMAINING OFF THE W COAST.

BELT OF VERY FAST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

AREA...AS A DEEP VORTEX SHIFTS ACROSS THE NRN ONTARIO/NRN QUEBEC

REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW

WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE

SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION. THE

FRONT SHOULD MAKE EVEN SLOWER PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS...POSSIBLY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE SECOND HALF

OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN IA/NRN MO/NRN IL AND VICINITY...

AN AREA OF MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS

THIS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...NEAR THE NOSE OF A VEERING

SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST

S OF THE SSEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WEAK ASCENT NEAR AND S OF THE

INCREASINGLY ANAFRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT MOST CONVECTION

WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY

EXPANDING/INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET

REDEVELOPS. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED DUE

TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINING N OF

THIS REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...WILL

INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ SEVERE AREA GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR

HAIL.

Edited September 17, 2010 by weather ship

[Paul Sherman]

Only really when it is Storm Chasing Season - We use these texts and advisories in the days discussion threads in the Storm Chase area.

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/139-storm-chase-usa/

Go to Storm Chase 2010 section and you will see most days start off with these texrs posted before a more in depth discussion takes place and target area.

Paul S

[knocker]

Thanks for that. I see what you mean. This forum takes a bit of getting used too. I would delete it but don't seem to have a delete button at the moment.

[NL]

Only really when it is Storm Chasing Season - We use these texts and advisories in the days discussion threads in the Storm Chase area.

http://forum.netweat...torm-chase-usa/

Go to Storm Chase 2010 section and you will see most days start off with these texrs posted before a more in depth discussion takes place and target area.

Paul S

Remember this time last year Paul? Lots of activity again this 'fall' (as the Americans would say) with numerous reports of tornadoes,large hail and severe thunderstorms, even Queens/Brooklyn in NewYork had reports of what mayt have been a tornado(more likely extremely high winds from ominous looking gust fronts) yesterday as severe weather hammered north eastern states with 11 reports of tornadoes affecting Ohio and West Virginia.

Ps Paul, by the way Tennessee has 2 n's in you sig youve only put one..!! Typing error I'm sure..:unsure:

http://www.spc.noaa..../yesterday.html