Convective Weather General Discussion

[Stuart]

Thanks Nick i keep my eyes on ears open let see if i see any this time

[Methuselah]

Thanks for the heads-up, Nick.

[SteveB]

Hoping for some rain/showers,as it has been another dry month so far.

[Stuart]

Weather warning out for Northern Ireland

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening, giving rainfall accumulations exceeding 20mm in 3 hours in places.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Watch (NI) for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1452 Wed 22 Sep

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

[BlueHedgehog074]

Fingers tightly crossed for some thundery and stormy activity for those wanting to see some storms today (though mostly for Northern parts) and tommorrow where, according to some of the latest posts, should cover a larger area of the UK. (Yey!)

Storm risk looking good at around 50% and over around these part (from Netweather.tv 10 day/storm risk forcasts), though not checked the models yet.

Would be amazing to see a huge late September thunderstorm.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking very good for here tomorrow. The front will have passed way before the main part of the day, leaving a large rash of showers and storms for here.

[The PIT]

Dunno about tomorrow but it's looking rather lively over Wales right now.

[Lewis]

Goood spot mate,

Hard to tell if its heading my way or not, but i have the feeling the usual will happen, the penines sapping the energy out of it.

Fingers crossed ay.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, looks like some torrential bursts of rain developing just ahead of the cold front as warm, moist air mass is forced to rise, so probably some convective element to the rainband. I think the risk of thunder and lightning from the front is low, but wouldn't completely rule out the odd the few sferics as it progresses eastward throughout this evening and into tomorrow.

The more realistic chance of thunderstorms will come behind the front as upper conditions will favour thunder and lightning as well as moderate-size hail as upper low and associated cold upper air arrives from the west. From current output, regions most likely to catch thunderstorms will be Wales, the SW, W Midlands, N England (particularly towards the west) and southern most parts of Scotland, due to deeper upper cold pool being over these regions. Deep-layer shear will be rather weak over those regions where best instability in progged as upper flow falls light under the upper low, however there looks to be some stronger deep-layer speed shear overlapping marginal CAPE from central-southern England through the E Midlands and possibly into eastern England - so a low risk of organised convection for here.

Tomorrow's outlook does look similar to Sep, 7 in terms of the set-up and regions most at risk of catching storms, with a good chance of decent size hail and gusty winds accompanying the storms. Caught a decent hailstorm that day... here's hoping for another tomorrow!

Certainly agree with your summary of tomorrow there. It certainly does remind me of the 7th September tomorrow. Got 2 thunderstorms that day!

[Guest]

Best thunderstormy showers of the year here tonight. Multiple lightning strikes, some amazing fork lightning and a lot of very very heavy rain. Bad enough that BoyCatch1 woke up screaming at the thunder earlier, the younger two have slept through it all though.

It is still going now, it has been more thundery rain than anything else, but pretty good by normal standards.

Edited September 22, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[A.J]

some bright colours on the rainfall radar filtering into the west midlands, just about knocking on my front door....some quite cold cloud tops on satellite imagery suggesting some decent mid-level convection along the leading edge of this band....so a chance of some elevated storms possibly for our neck of the woods

[Greeny]

Just looking at the skew-t charts for tomorrow 12 noon through 9pm and thats where the potential for Norfolk is. 12pm through 6pm looking the greatest chances cloud base height forcast at being around 3500 feet and top of any convection being around 23000 feet. Cloud bases being quite high and the tops not too high but high enough for something. Temps at cloud base 12C temps at cloud tops -30 to -35C. lifted index -1 cape not exceeding 300 but again enough for a thunderstorm. 6pm through 9pm cloud base lowering considerably as the tops collapse to around 18000 feet potentially and starts to stabilise thereafter.

I will have another look at things tomorrow morning. Hopefully with some potential comes the trigger. Oh a cold front forecast to come over just in time.. Heres hoping

Edit: It seems that I didn't look far enough ahead as come midnight potential increases again until at least 6am before an occluded front is forcast to come over. Lifted index -1 cape again over 200. This time cloud bases much lower (not much higher than 1000feet and cloud tops the same around 23000 feet. Definitely very interesting, cant wait to see what all this ends up doing!

Edited September 22, 2010 by Greenday

[Nick F]

Have issued a storm forecast for tomorrow, should be the most interesting day convective-wise for many for a while:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Greeny]

Have issued a storm forecast for tomorrow, should be the most interesting day convective-wise for many for a while:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Oh yeah!

[ZONE 51]

looking foward to a great convective day, and before that can the cold front give the se something interesting later tonight/morning....

[Stuart]

loook like most of the UK going get Showers or thunderstorm later on this time i hope to see one. Last time i miss it

Edited September 23, 2010 by Stuart

[Gordon]

Last Time this was forecast I didn't see a single shower/storm

What's the highest risk time for my area anyone know

I live 5 miles north of Coventry

Edited September 23, 2010 by Gordon

[Paul Sherman]

Gotta Love the Met Office Weather Warning Map

Everywhere under a Warning.................Except Kent

[Joey.G]

Looks like those very Eastern parts of Kent could be about to get a wake up call from some small cells that have popped up in the channel just West of that MCS feature currently over NE France..

Didnt expect there the CF to be here (Reading) already this morning, hopefully it will continue to clear away rapidly leaviing some space for a bit of insolation. Ill be chasing NNE from Reading up toward The Wash, after the West Midlands I recon this will be the best place to be. Good luck everyone, heres hoping for something spectacular

[Nick F]

Gotta Love the Met Office Weather Warning Map

Everywhere under a Warning.................Except Kent

Sounds about right. Though I hope they're proven wrong!

There are some storms running N up through the far north of France currently, as usual not coming this way.

[Supacell]

Will be nice to get another chance to see a storm today. I will be storm chasing this afternoon so will hopefully find something. Charging the camcorder as we speak.

[TonyH]

Gotta Love the Met Office Weather Warning Map

Everywhere under a Warning.................Except Kent

It seems OTT to virtually blanket warn the UK, and misleading as many places/areas will miss the downpours as usual.

Hopefully they won't do this for every forthcoming showery day.

Edited September 23, 2010 by Tonyh

[Stuart]

matt say on bbc our local Weather risk of thunderstorms here later this afternoon

Edited September 23, 2010 by Stuart

[Gordon]

It seems OTT to virtually blanket warn the UK, and misleading as many places/areas will miss the downpours as usual.

Hopefully they won't do this for every forthcoming showery day.

I thought that as well as I watched the BBC local forecast

It doesn't show the West Midlands Covered in showers

I think the Met Office is covering itself by having a blanket forecast for all of England and Wales when a large Majority will not see anything

I wonder if that rain moving up from C/S England will clip me

Edit : looks like that rain will just miss me

Edit 2 : To top it off the BBC website has my forecast for today as sunny intervals with a light shower at 19.00 a complete contrast to their TV forecast this of course was updated at 08.35 so unless something has changed I will not put too much faith into it been correct

Edited September 23, 2010 by Gordon

[Lynxus]

I thought that as well as I watched the BBC local forecast

It doesn't show the West Midlands Covered in showers

I think the Met Office is covering itself by having a blanket forecast for all of England and Wales when a large Majority will not see anything

I wonder if that rain moving up from C/S England will clip me

Edit : looks like that rain will just miss me

Edit 2 : To top it off the BBC website has my forecast for today as sunny intervals with a light shower at 19.00 a complete contrast to their TV forecast this of course was updated at 08.35 so unless something has changed I will not put too much faith into it been correct

LOL @ Metoffice.

Well, Apparently we are going to get some heavy thunder later.

Unlikely.