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A new fresh tread for your convective discussions

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Being new on here I'm not sure exactly how to go about this but I'm sure I'll be pointed in the right direction.:unsure:

The morning started off with touch of small Cu. that has developed somewhat since in line with isolated showers forecast.

I'll chuck in the Camborne midnight sounding for good measure.I'm not sure they still do an 0600.

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Just to add to that the Cu only developed as far as the stable layer becoming in parts Sc forming from Cu. Pretty much as expected I would imagine.

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Being new on here I'm not sure exactly how to go about this but I'm sure I'll be pointed in the right direction.:drinks:

The morning started off with touch of small Cu. that has developed somewhat since in line with isolated showers forecast.

I'll chuck in the Camborne midnight sounding for good measure.I'm not sure they still do an 0600.

Where do you get that skew T from?

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Where do you get that skew T from?

I generated it on my PC using the Digital Atmosphere program. A good piece of weather software if you can get to grips with all the functions which I haven't yet ( probably never will) although I've had it a few years. The midday sounding supported the rather brief obs. I made.

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Where do you get that skew T from?

general skew-t outputs are available here

http://weather.uwyo....r/sounding.html

on left hand side click on Europe then click on right for skew-t, you need to know station numbers 808=Camborne in UK or 354 for Watnall for example; usually one can get 00 and 12z output.

A very clever programme there Fred, I suspect that will be beyond me!

in our Guides there is a whole thread devoted to trying to explain how to use the skew-t, see the link below

http://forum.netweat...kew-t-diagrams/

the 00z for Camborne this morning

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2010&MONTH=09&FROM=1800&TO=1800&STNM=03808

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A very clever programme there Fred, I suspect that will be beyond me!

I very much doubt that John but it certainly is me. You can have some fun with it though.

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yes weather09 looks a chance, keep us updated!

GFS shows(earlier) the unstable air over n-france, towards later next week, so its a risk of imports?

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general skew-t outputs are available here

http://weather.uwyo....r/sounding.html

on left hand side click on Europe then click on right for skew-t, you need to know station numbers 808=Camborne in UK or 354 for Watnall for example; usually one can get 00 and 12z output.

A very clever programme there Fred, I suspect that will be beyond me!

in our Guides there is a whole thread devoted to trying to explain how to use the skew-t, see the link below

http://forum.netweat...kew-t-diagrams/

the 00z for Camborne this morning

http://weather.uwyo....1800&STNM=03808

Ah great, thanks for the input John. I have a reasonable idea on reading a skew-T and I most certainly like them. A whole look at all the layers of the atmosphere in 1 diagram. One thing I like about that skew-t over the netweather skew-T is that it draws the current SALR and that means I don't have to imagine where that line is. However the one thing I don't like about it over the netweather version is that it seems harder to read and more cramped.

Its a shame it doesnt have a station near to me in Norwich.

I'll have a little experiment with that program but I'm not sure I want to pay all that money for it :air_kiss:

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hi Greenday

This may help its the free version on Net Weather, not many to chhose from but the London one may help you

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdcskew;sess=

The nearest ascent on the list I gave is for Herstanceux, again the London area.

If you can spend money on net Wx Extra then you can key in your own post code and get the predicted skew-t for that post code.

From T+00 out to T+180?

not sure if this link will work for you bit its Norwich at T+00 =ooz today

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=cskew;time=00;sess=29709119cecb0953ab06385eb4ba6d07

hope this helps, any questions please ask either on here or via pm, I'm always happy to try and help. I still feel the best is that used by UK Met the t=phi as it has more staight lines than the skew-t!

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I quite agree with your last statement John. I take it Hemsby became Watnall. I'm afraid my memory is fading fast.

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this is the usual list that is available and sometimes not all of them

europe.jpg

so yes Hemsby went long long ago. I have no idea just how many upper air stations Met UK now have, whether its the same as the map shows or they have others that are not shown-I doubt it.

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night lightning displays is what summer usually brings to us, thats what we have missed in the south especially, and for storm-lovers its hard to take, so i really hope we get a day storm at least, and that would be great start to autumn!

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night lightning displays is what summer usually brings to us, thats what we have missed in the south especially, and for storm-lovers its hard to take, so i really hope we get a day storm at least, and that would be great start to autumn!

I hear you nimbilus! Has truly been a shocking year - I never thought the quietness of 2007 and 2008 would be surpassed...but 2010 has done so spectacularly! Truly awful!

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Cant wait!

Reading in weather history books that some of the most severe tstorms in the south have been through september!

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Fingers crossed eh nimbilus ? Its been particularly storm starved in these parts this year.

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GFS still going at it for storms to develop over the Eern Channel, moving NE into SE England and E East Anglia during the early hours of Thursday into Thursday daytime.

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Just updating at the moment - FAX chart seems to want to push storm risk to only affect eastern most Kent (if that), while we come under the influence of frontal activity earlier.

Certainly in respect of GFS, I'm not confident of it's accuracy until at least 24 hours before any possible event. I'm anticipating that when it finishes updating in the next 10-15 mins, our risk will be shunted eastwards.

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well the risk of storms still here for thu just and no more with liffted -1 at 3pm

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As expected, imported thunder risk momentarily clips East Kent and then pushes over Benelux... :):wallbash: :wallbash:

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With regards to Thursday, atm there appears to be 2 areas of potential as the increasingly warm moist southerly airmass over parts of the UK over the next few days destabilises ahead of approaching upper trough from the west. Western and central areas seeing the warm moist airmass destabilising with possible embedded, mainly elevated, thunderstorms along the cold front/upper trough moving in from the west during the day and maybe storms developing in the colder Pm airmass with steep lapse rates behind the cold front too across western parts. Also a pre-frontal shortwave trough possibly develops across N France and SE corner - which may bring some isolated thunderstorms to the far SE first thing Thursday morning, then the cold front perhaps triggering some storms later in the day over Ern and SErn areas.

All-in-all could shape up to be a fairly interesting day convective-wise, certainly after recent days of little going on. Upper winds look moderate in strength - with SW'erly jet on forward side of approaching upper trough from the west and together with 20-30 knots of deep layer shear we could see some organisation of storms into multicell/line segments, though LL shear looks weak, so severe potential looks failry low.

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Look like the storm risk upgread for thu for some parts of the uk but it still bit of so Things could still go down hill

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Looking exciting ,good to see some potential, but i would wait until later today(wednesday) to get excited in the se, although this mornings runs should give an idea of what to expect, just imagine an imported atmospheric rumbler!

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Looks like the cold front should clear eastward a good deal sooner than has been predicted over the last few days - fax output shows it to lie across far E / SE England by 12z tomorrow. Slight risk of embedded isolated cells along and ahead of the front, as fairly warm moist air mass is destabilised on its approach. Mid-upper level lapse rates look neutral, with a saturated upper profile so probably more of heavy convective rainfall risk than thunder and lightning.

Post-frontal air mass should see a better chance for thunderstorms to develop as air mass becomes increasingly unstable due to cooling mid-upper levels, with EL cloud top temperatures around -40C or below across parts of England and Wales. Risk of heavy showers and storms looks widespread with modest CAPE generated across a good part of the UK.

Hopefully a decent convective day.

Yep, can't disagree with any of that...look like being a very good day all round tomorrow! Lets just hope many people can get some t'storm activity rather than a lucky few! Our chances are running out - soon it'll be restricted to coastal areas with more inland areas increasingly less likely for any action (though, irony would dictate our storm activity will double as we approach winter :good:)

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Have issued a storm forecast for today until midnight, for isolated thunderstorms developing in the post frontal Pm airmass across Ireland and western Scotland this afternoon. Also, risk perhaps of isol embedded thunder along cold front later slipping SE, more particularly I think west Wales this evening/overnight:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Tomorrow, more widespread prospects across the UK. Think the cold front could trigger more in the way of storms along its length as it continues SE across England, particularly as it engages the warmer moister air further east and aided by shortwaves running NE, then the post frontal PM airmass with steep lapse rates moves in across most areas for the afternoon which will bring further storm risk.

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