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Meto Uk Further Outlook

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UK Outlook for Friday 10 Jan 2014 to Sunday 19 Jan 2014:

The unsettled theme looks set to continue through the end of next week and into the following week. Whilst this means showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. Showery rain and occasional gales are most likely in the north and west, with drier, brighter weather in southern and eastern parts. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal at first but turn colder later with most areas seeing an increasing risk of frost and ice. Later in the period it will remain mainly unsettled with the north and west generally wettest and the east and southeast seeing the best of drier and brighter weather, and more frequent colder spells.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 5 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Jan 2014 to Monday 20 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. A band of rain lying across the UK on Saturday will be the focus for the most unsettled weather but it will weaken during the weekend. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal at first but turn rather colder with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Thereafter, more changeable conditions are likely in the north and west of the UK with the best of the drier weather in the south and southeast. It will be rather cold in the north with an increasing risk of snow, mainly over northern hills, and nearer normal further south but an increased frost risk.

Updated: 1134 on Mon 6 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 4 Feb 2014:

 

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting through to the end of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as earlier in the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types early next month.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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another change in emphasis with the words 'early next month' replacing 'in late January'

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LOL However they've nearly always saying there's an indication of colder conditions towards the end of the period and it's been consistently staying at that point in time until now. 

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LOL However they've nearly always saying there's an indication of colder conditions towards the end of the period and it's been consistently staying at that point in time until now. 

 

true to a point but would you prefer they never change regardless of what their professional judgement suggests to them?

no one can predict without a computer more than 24 at most 48 hours ahead so it is all down to how accurate the models they use are.

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I would prefer that they only went out to 16 days MAX.  30 days is full of 'could' 'may' 'perhaps' and 'possibly' But that's just my opinion.

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At this rate it will be April and we'll still be looking at possible, maybe and could turn colder towards the latter end of the month.Posted Image

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i wander if the mets wording on their updates changed to what it is now after the last 2 ecmf 32day outputs. Although i.f did hint on the m.d thread the mets cold signal is from another product, he didn't say which1 that was yesterday.

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another change in emphasis with the words 'early next month' replacing 'in late January'

Hmm.....

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UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 21 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. At first, the strongest winds and heaviest rain are most likely in the west of the UK, whilst the south and east will hang on to the driest weather. Temperatures are likely to be colder than recently in most areas with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Thereafter, more changeable conditions are likely in the north and west of the UK with the best of the drier weather in the south and east. It will be rather cold in the north with an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures further south.

Updated: 1129 on Tue 7 Jan 2014

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 5 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting through to the end of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as earlier in the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some signals are also emerging to suggest the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types early next month.

Updated: 1132 on Tue 7 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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i wander if the mets wording on their updates changed to what it is now after the last 2 ecmf 32day outputs. Although i.f did hint on the m.d thread the mets cold signal is from another product, he didn't say which1 that was yesterday.

No. Not EC32. What I can tell you is the underpinning is through recent successive GloSea5 output. I hope to be able to discuss this more tomorrow here.

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It will be an interesting met office 30 dayer today but an even more interesting 16 day update!, it might be fun at times chasing Scandinavian highs, often stressful but even more stressful for senior forecasters entrusted with these updates and even worse for ones issuing warnings when the timeframe gets nearer.

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It will be an interesting met office 30 dayer today but an even more interesting 16 day update!, it might be fun at times chasing Scandinavian highs, often stressful but even more stressful for senior forecasters entrusted with these updates and even worse for ones issuing warnings when the timeframe gets nearer.

I think any updates will come towards the end of this week as we all know just how volatile easterlies can be. so I think they'll play this one safe until they are certain in jumping of the fence.

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I think any updates will come towards the end of this week as we all know just how volatile easterlies can be. so I think they'll play this one safe until they are certain in jumping of the fence.

 

 

Afraid not, they have reverted to average into February, I have to say this was what I was fearing with the lack of further strat warmings in FI on recent runs.

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Jan 2014 to Thursday 6 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting late in January, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly inbetween weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 8 Jan 2014

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UK Outlook for Monday 13 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 22 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as those of recent weeks. At first, the strongest winds and heaviest rain are most likely in the west of the UK, then perhaps in the south and southwest, whilst the east will hang on to the driest weather. It will become colder, especially in the north where there is an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures at times in the south, and an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Later in the month changeable conditions are likely to continue, especially in the northwest, with the best of the drier weather in the east.

Updated: 1156 on Wed 8 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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its a 16/30 day forecast. the easterly wont last 10 days!

 

I was also referring to the general up in the air situation and volatility of Easterlies, which in my opinion was almost certainly the source of the previously anticipated cold snap into Early Feb, your quite right, in fact I think this one will last around 2-4 days wrt explosive wintry convective North sea precipitation potential anyway, what happens in 7-14 days time though can also affect things in 30 days?  we may have swapped the war to win one battle although i doubt it, i feel we will get another cold spell beyond this but may have been put back to mid Feb.

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Who ever wrote that is either looking at different information than we are or is a supreme forecaster.

 

Only mention of normal temperatures in the South during the forecast period, clearly whoever produced this does not expect the easterly to take hold .

 

Now, I never ever expect the Met Office to come out with raging blizzards etc.. but given the increased likliehood of a cold easterly setting up I would have at least expected some kind of reference to the possibility.

 

Certainly has me worried for tonights model runs.

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Who ever wrote that is either looking at different information than we are or is a supreme forecaster.

 

Only mention of normal temperatures in the South during the forecast period, clearly whoever produced this does not expect the easterly to take hold .

 

Now, I never ever expect the Met Office to come out with raging blizzards etc.. but given the increased likliehood of a cold easterly setting up I would have at least expected some kind of reference to the possibility.

 

Certainly has me worried for tonights model runs.

 

 

Given that its the 6+ day outlook rather than 30 day one i would have to agree, if i were writing the forecast i would have mentioned the possibility of below average temperatures with sleet and snow possible, particularly for Eastern areas.

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i c the mets changed the wording on their 16-30day outlook so the qs is what signals have they picked up to change their outlook today at met hq. Over to ian f for a bit mor explaination.

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i c the mets changed the wording on their 16-30day outlook so the qs is what signals have they picked up to change their outlook today at met hq. Over to ian f for a bit mor explaination.

 Ian told us yesetrday that its due to glosea 5 model output. clearly that repeating signal is becoming muted.

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i c the mets changed the wording on their 16-30day outlook so the qs is what signals have they picked up to change their outlook today at met hq. Over to ian f for a bit mor explaination.

 

It will not doubt be the in house models like MOGREPS, glosea 5 ect

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