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UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Jan 2014 to Saturday 25 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. Spells of dull, wet and windy weather would then alternate with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks and perhaps even slightly below average.

Updated: 1145 on Fri 27 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Jan 2014 to Saturday 11 Jan 2014:

Rain, heavy at times, and strong to gale force winds will clear to the east of the UK early on Thursday. Colder, more showery weather will follow, heavy and thundery in places, and wintry over high ground in northern Britain. These showers will last into Friday, accompanied by strong winds. Thereafter the unsettled theme looks set to continue, with further spells of wet and windy weather being interspersed with brighter, colder and showery interludes. These showers probably heaviest in western Britain, and possibly wintry at times, especially over northern hills, but perhaps also to lower levels in northern Britain later. Temperatures are likely to be a little below normal in the north, with an increased risk of frost and ice, and near or slightly above average further south.

Updated: 1125 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Sunday 26 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

Updated: 1139 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Sunday 26 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

Updated: 1139 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

 

 

Get in, ties in with an excellent post by chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread.

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'Some signs' followed by a 'perhaps'. Thats a ramp from exeter!!

 

Lets hope the signs build.  I think it's fair to say that this Winter has already had more than its fair share of wind, rain and floods.  Time for something colder, drier and snowier!  If nothing else I'm fed up with broken fences!

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UK Outlook for Friday 3 Jan 2014 to Sunday 12 Jan 2014:

Going into next weekend conditions will remain unsettled and often windy, with spells of rain interspersed with brighter, colder and showery conditions. Rain or showers are likely to be heavy at times, especially across western and southern parts, and also bring a risk of hail and thunder. Showers may turn wintry over northern higher ground. There is also a risk of gales in exposed areas. Thereafter staying unsettled, with further spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter, colder and showery interludes. These showers probably heaviest in western areas, and turning wintry at times, chiefly over northern hills. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below normal in the north, with an increased risk of frost and ice, and near or slightly above average further south.

Updated: 1251 on Sun 29 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Monday 13 Jan 2014 to Monday 27 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

Updated: 1255 on Sun 29 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 28 Jan 2014:

 

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging to suggest temperatures being less mild in general terms than during the first half of January, with the possibility of colder weather later in the month.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 28 Jan 2014: Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging to suggest temperatures being less mild in general terms than during the first half of January, with the possibility of colder weather later in the month. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

So 'significantly colder' has been dropped for just 'colder' weather later in the month.
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UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Jan 2014 to Monday 13 Jan 2014:

Remaining very unsettled and windy for most next weekend, with outbreaks of rain which could be heavy, and gales, these perhaps severe in the southwest. The best of the drier and brighter interludes will be in the east. Temperatures generally around normal but feeling cold in the wind and rain. Staying unsettled through next week, though perhaps less windy than recently. Further heavy rain is possible, still the best of the dry weather in the east. Later in the period the weather is likely to become changeable with northern areas most likely to see showers or longer spells of rain. Southern areas should see more of the drier and brighter weather, still with some showers at times. Temperatures becoming near normal or rather cold, with an increased risk of frost.

Updated: 1201 on Mon 30 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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if you look at there monthly outlook it has updated which it does every Monday and it says those wanting cold and snowy conditions it doesn't look good

Hello Terrier.

This is by no means having a go at the METO.

Take a long look at these further outlooks by the Met and not even monthly and when they were issued....

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2013 to Saturday 12 Jan 2013:A quieter and drier spell of weather is expected through this outlook period, especially in the south where the ground is fairly saturated. Generally a good deal of cloud across the UK throughout. Over northern and some western parts, the cloudy is likely to be thick enough for occasional spells of rain, perhaps even some heavier rain at times for western Scotland. Elsewhere, conditions will be largely dry, with the best of any breaks tending to be to the lee of higher ground. Also a risk of mist or fog patches where any cloud breaks occur overnight. Perhaps some rain extending further southeast around the middle of the period, but only small amounts. Daytime temperatures will generally be above average and nights largely mild and frost free.Updated: 1219 on Sat 29 Dec 2012

 

End result 12th January

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-11-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-11-0-2.png

 

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Jan 2013 to Sunday 13 Jan 2013:A quieter and drier spell of weather is expected through this outlook period, especially in the south where the ground is fairly saturated, although there will probably be a good deal of cloud across the UK. Over northern and some western parts, the cloud is likely to be thick enough for occasional spells of rain, perhaps even some heavier rain at times for western Scotland. Elsewhere, conditions will be largely dry, with the best of any breaks tending to be to the lee of higher ground. Also a risk of mist or fog patches where any cloud breaks occur overnight. Perhaps some rain extending further southeast around the middle of the period, but only small amounts. Daytime temperatures will generally be above average and nights largely mild and frost free.Updated: 1047 on Sun 30 Dec 2012

 

End result 13th January

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-13-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-13-0-1.png

 

And finally

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 12 Mar 2013:Largely dry through Sunday and Monday with variable amounts of cloud. The best of the sunshine is most likely towards the far south of the UK and parts of the west and northwest. Outbreaks of light rain may affect some central areas at times and northeastern areas later. Breezy in the south at first, especially the southwest. Rather cold in the south and east, but nearer normal temperatures in the north. Thereafter, probably becoming more unsettled and windier from the southwest, with an increasing risk of rain across some southern and western areas. The best of chance of any dry conditions lasting is most likely across some central and eastern parts. Temperatures may recover to nearer normal in the south with time, but rather cold elsewhere with further overnight frosts.Updated: 1104 on Tue 26 Feb 2013

 

End result 12th March

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-3-12-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-3-12-0-2.png

 

The further outlook must be used as a tool for guidance as it may not always happen as they predict it.

 

 

Edited by winterof79
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I wouldn't worry about the bbc or met office monthly outlook, they are a rough guide, rather than an accurate weather forecast.

Indeed, and I personally don't rate the monthlies one bit along with the ECM32 which they utilise to compose them. They are no more likely to get the long range stuff right then most who post on the MOD thread, now up until 10-15 days they are second to none.

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Indeed, and I personally don't rate the monthlies one bit along with the ECM32 which they utilise to compose them. They are no more likely to get the long range stuff right then most who post on the MOD thread, now up until 10-15 days they are second to none.

Not so sure about that assertion, SI...Unless you're referring to the minority who rightly suggested that the previous month would be dominated by westerlies and a dominant polar vortex? Those who, IMO anyway, are too readily dismissed at 'trolls'?

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Not so sure about that assertion, SI...Unless you're referring to the minority who rightly suggested that the previous month would be dominated by westerlies and a dominant polar vortex? Those who, IMO anyway, are too readily dismissed at 'trolls'?

Nope I'm pretty certain that the monthly updates are nigh on useless the majority of the time, like I I've said I've the upmost respect and admiration for their 10-15 day forecasts but the monthlies, pffttt!

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Not so sure about that assertion, SI...Unless you're referring to the minority who rightly suggested that the previous month would be dominated by westerlies and a dominant polar vortex? Those who, IMO anyway, are too readily dismissed at 'trolls'?

The minority who suggested this month would be dominated by westerlies and a dominant polar vortex are ones who you know full well were posting one/two line sentences with no objective analysis whatsoever of how and why such a pattern was likely to come about and the motive much more to do with seeking and gaining reaction from others on the MOD. Therefore deservedly and readily dismissed as trolls.

 

As a well known snow and cold fan, I could see possibilities of this same sort of pattern consolidating and documented this in updates on the MOD thread - but this was through some attempted thought out assessment of all the factors to hand and nothing to do with reaction seeking. There have of course been other posters who have done the same - irrespective of weather preference or bias.

 

It should be quite clear that this is not intended as self praise, but simply to give a personal example to highlight the big difference between a pre conceived agenda and posting for reaction and trying to post objectively with weather preferences put to one side - even if the stated conclusion of the weather pattern is broadly the same one by both opposite ends of the posting spectrum.

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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The Met O outlook just reflects their latest ens runs day to day.

If they change then this is shown in the next issue.

Currently the outlooks are broadly indicating the ongoing Atlantic pattern with a chance that this may modify/weaken later in the month as some warming within the vortex starts to create more gaps within it's core.

We then need some luck as to where the expected height anomalies show up.

Very much a long term possibility though-late Jan into Feb even if this is to occur i reckon.

This Winter has all the hallmarks of a more typical UK one with any deep cold coming later.

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How the stained glass window can temperatures be generally around normal at the start of the period then return to around normal later when it only feels cold because of the wind,then saying or rather cold????

Fence sitting at its best to the joe public tax payer.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 29 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest that while unsettled weather is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month, the character of the weather may undergo a change towards colder conditions. This would mean that while spells of dull, wet and windy weather would continue there will be an increased risk of wintry conditions during the second half of the month, particularly in northern parts of the UK.

Updated: 1227 on Tue 31 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 14 Jan 2014:

Very unsettled and windy weather will spread from the west through Sunday with the wettest and windiest conditions likely in the south and west. Further bands of rain are likely on Monday, and the best of the drier and brighter interludes should be in the east. Temperatures will be generally around normal but it will feel cold in the wind and rain. Staying unsettled but becoming generally less windy through the period, with the best of the dry spells in the east, and these perhaps longer lasting than of late. Outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, are most likely in the north, Temperatures becoming near normal or rather cold, with an increased risk of frost.

Updated: 1206 on Tue 31 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 14 Jan 2014:

Very unsettled and windy weather will spread from the west through Sunday with the wettest and windiest conditions likely in the south and west. Further bands of rain are likely on Monday, and the best of the drier and brighter interludes should be in the east. Temperatures will be generally around normal but it will feel cold in the wind and rain. Staying unsettled but becoming generally less windy through the period, with the best of the dry spells in the east, and these perhaps longer lasting than of late. Outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, are most likely in the north, Temperatures becoming near normal or rather cold, with an increased risk of frost.

Updated: 1206 on Tue 31 Dec 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

 

So much for relentless zonality and mild tempertures "at least until the end of January". A mention of cold in the further outlook is a step in the right direction for more seasonal weather; earlier than I had been hoping too.

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So much for relentless zonality and mild tempertures "at least until the end of January". A mention of cold in the further outlook is a step in the right direction for more seasonal weather; earlier than I had been hoping too.

Becoming colder has been a fairly consistent phrase over the last month dropped one or two times but so far hasn't made any appearance. Latest models don't show anything particular cold and even when they do by the time we get there it's be normally downgraded to normal temps. Only about four days have managed to come in below normal here if that.

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When the Met, or BBC forecast 'rather', in English that actually means slightly, or vaguely. I remember back in the '90s, 13c and sunny being described by the BBC as 'rather' warm in sunshine. A hint of warmth.

Therefore I would take this forecast to mean a tiny bit chilly, rather than full blown nor'easters!

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