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UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 4 Dec 2013:

The rather unsettled conditions will probably continue into the start of this period, but with the potential for the rain to alternate with longer drier periods, which could well include overnight frosts and fog patches. However, by the end of November confidence significantly decreases regarding which weather type is most likely to dominate. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall.

Updated: 1235 on Tue 5 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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UK Outlook for Monday 11 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 20 Nov 2013:

A cloudy and wet start to Monday, with persistent, occasionally heavy rain, widespread hill fog and strong winds. This gradually clearing from all but the southeast through the day. Scattered blustery showers following to the northwest, heavy at times with winds strengthening and gales in places. Rain may be slow to clear the southeast on Tuesday, but thereafter more settled conditions will start to build in the south. Showers will continue in the north, increasingly falling as snow over the highest ground, with strong winds continuing and gales possible at times. Temperatures near normal by day, but becoming colder overnight in the south with light winds, leading to local frost and fog patches. Thereafter, more unsettled conditions are likely to return, with further spells of rain or showers.

Updated: 1203 on Wed 6 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Nov 2013 to Thursday 5 Dec 2013:

The rather unsettled conditions will probably continue into the start of this period, but with the potential for the rain to alternate with longer drier periods, which could well include overnight frosts and fog patches. However, by the end of November confidence significantly decreases regarding which weather type is most likely to dominate. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall.

Updated: 1158 on Wed 6 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Nov 2013 to Thursday 21 Nov 2013:

Rain across southeastern England will clear on Tuesday morning with sunny spells and scattered showers following elsewhere, showers locally heavy and thundery across the north and west. It will be breezy with local gales across the north. By Wednesday, there should be more sunshine and fewer showers across the country with lighter winds. Temperatures will be near normal at first but it will turn colder by Wednesday. From Thursday to Saturday, southern areas should enjoy drier and brighter weather with lighter winds although with a fog and frost risk, whilst northern parts will be more unsettled with rain and stronger winds. By the end of the period, these unsettled conditions look set to return to the whole of the UK with the heaviest rain across the north and west.

Updated: 1138 on Thu 7 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Nov 2013 to Friday 22 Nov 2013:

 

After a largely fine but cold start to Wednesday with sunny spells, strong winds and heavy rain are likely to push east across most areas through the day. Thursday will be rather cold and breezy with sunny spells and showers, showers heaviest across western areas with snow possible over higher ground. Temperatures will be generally cold overnight but near average by day. Thereafter, a north/south split is likely to develop across the UK, with the best of any dry and bright weather across the south but with more in the way of rain and stronger winds across northern parts. It will be cold enough for snow at times across northern hills with a greater risk of frost and fog in the south during clearer spells.

 

Updated: 1200 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

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UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Nov 2013 to Saturday 7 Dec 2013:

 

Confidence significantly decreases regarding which weather type is most likely to dominate through this forecast period. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. However, the projections suggest that precipitation amounts are more likely to be just above the seasonal average than below. This would suggest that the weather remains changeable with spells of showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, interspersed with drier and clearer periods, giving a greater threat of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures are also more likely to be just below average than above, and this would give a greater threat of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.

 

Updated: 1201 on Fri 8 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

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UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Nov 2013 to Saturday 23 Nov 2013:  

An unsettled start to this period with showers and some strong winds. A risk of gales in the northwest where showers will be most frequent and heavy, falling as snow over higher ground. A brief quieter spell of weather seems likely into Friday, with many places staying dry. Thereafter, a return to more changeable conditions, with the best of any dry and bright weather across the south and more in the way of rain and stronger winds further north. It will be cold enough for snow at times across northern hills with a greater risk of frost and fog in the south during clearer spells. Temperatures will be around average by day, but cold at night with frost and fog, especially in the drier south.

Updated: 1148 on Sat 9 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html Edited by Stuart
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UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Nov 2013 to Sunday 8 Dec 2013:

Confidence significantly decreases regarding which weather pattern is most likely to dominate through this forecast period. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. However, the projections suggest that precipitation amounts are more likely to be just above the seasonal average than below. This would suggest that the weather remains changeable with spells of showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, interspersed with drier and clearer periods, giving a greater threat of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures are more likely to be just below average than above, and this would give a greater threat of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.

Updated: 1158 on Sat 9 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Friday 15 Nov 2013 to Sunday 24 Nov 2013:

An unsettled start. Cloud, rain and strong winds in north and northwestern parts will move erratically southeastwards through the weekend, eventually clearing Kent by Sunday night.Through the first part of next week, northern parts will turn colder and remain unsettled with a mix of cloudy periods and rain or showers, which may be wintry over high ground. This will be interspersed with clearer spells too. Further south will likely be settled, though some rain at times, and turning colder with an increasing risk of overnight frost. Later in the week and into the following weekend, conditions look fairly typical for the time of year, with the greatest risk of strong winds and heavy rain in the north, and the best of any drier weather in the south.

Updated: 1141 on Sun 10 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Nov 2013 to Sunday 8 Dec 2013:

There is decreasing confidence regarding which weather pattern is most likely to dominate through this forecast period. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. However, the projections suggest that precipitation amounts are more likely to be just above the seasonal average than below. This would suggest that the weather remains changeable with spells of showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, interspersed with drier and clearer periods, giving a greater threat of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures are more likely to be just below average than above, and this would give a greater threat of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.

Updated: 1142 on Sun 10 Nov 2013

 

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/educating-yorkshire/4od#3581323

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Nov 2013 to Tuesday 10 Dec 2013:

There is decreasing confidence regarding which weather pattern is most likely to dominate through this forecast period. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. However, the projections suggest that precipitation amounts are more likely to be just above the seasonal average than below. This would suggest that the weather remains changeable with spells of showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, interspersed with drier and clearer periods, giving a greater threat of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures are more likely to be just below average than above, and this would give a greater threat of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.

Updated: 1132 on Mon 11 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Nov 2013 to Monday 25 Nov 2013:

During the weekend, cloud, outbreaks of rain and strong winds across north and northwestern parts will move erratically southeastwards and should eventually clear the far southeast during Sunday night. Through the first part of next week, there is a trend for most parts to become colder and more unsettled, with spells of rain interspersed with brighter and showery periods. It is likely to be often windy, and there is also an increasing risk of snow, mainly over the hills in the north. Overnight frosts are likely to become more widespread than recently. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain rather unsettled and on the chilly side, with spells of rain, perhaps turning wintry over northern hills. The best of any settled and drier weather most likely in the south.

Updated: 1130 on Mon 11 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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First person to spot the S word..............

 

Mainly over the hills in the north.........

 

Nothing out of the ordinary really but at least it will feel seasonal.

Edited by Don
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Met are notorious for bein conservative in their choice of words, but the phraseology leaves open question marks - 'mainly on the hills' implies possibility of lower ground as well. Lets see if they chance their stance in the coming days.

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not notorious, more like sensible ?

their shortest outlook starts in 6 days time. The chances of anyone professional or amateur getting the stuff falling out of the sky as the predicted amount, in the predicted place at the predicted rate and time is very low. Think back to rainfall products in the summer, in a sense ONE variable to work out, winter=will it snow in my backyard type questions needs around 7 paramaters to be correct for a high probability that IF there is stuff falling from the sky it will be snow.

Edited by johnholmes
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An improvement.

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 11 Dec 2013:

There remains lower than average confidence regarding which weather patterns are likely to dominate through late November and early December, with no particularly strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. Consequently conditions are not expected to be as mild as recent weeks, instead, temperatures are thought more likely to be just below average than above. There are some signs of precipitation amounts being closer to average for the time of year, suggesting some changeable spells of weather during this forecast period. Whilst there is also currently no signal for widespread wintry conditions, snow is not unusual during late November and early December. So, with temperatures more likely to be just below average, the chance of seeing snow across the UK increases relative to recent weeks.

Updated: 1146 on Tue 12 Nov 2013

 

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UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Nov 2013 to Tuesday 26 Nov 2013:

Cloud and outbreaks of rain across northern parts on Sunday will move erratically southeastwards and should eventually clear the far southeast by Monday morning. Through the week, there is a trend for most parts to become colder and more unsettled, with showers or more persistent spells of rain, which may be locally heavy and also turn wintry over the hills in the north. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales across northern areas. Overnight frosts are also likely to become more widespread than recently. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain rather unsettled and on the chilly side, with spells of rain or showers. These may turn wintry, mainly over northern hills. The best of any settled and drier weather most likely in the south.

Updated: 1145 on Tue 12 Nov 2013

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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An improvement.

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 11 Dec 2013:

There remains lower than average confidence regarding which weather patterns are likely to dominate through late November and early December, with no particularly strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. Consequently conditions are not expected to be as mild as recent weeks, instead, temperatures are thought more likely to be just below average than above. There are some signs of precipitation amounts being closer to average for the time of year, suggesting some changeable spells of weather during this forecast period. Whilst there is also currently no signal for widespread wintry conditions, snow is not unusual during late November and early December. So, with temperatures more likely to be just below average, the chance of seeing snow across the UK increases relative to recent weeks.

Updated: 1146 on Tue 12 Nov 2013

I'm not sure if that's a forecast or a summary of what weather you can expect in the UK at this time of year.Posted Image

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I'm not sure if that's a forecast or a summary of what weather you can expect in the UK at this time of year.Posted Image

True but at least November could well end our run of warmer than average months, although I doubt we'll finish too much below average. 

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UK Outlook for Monday 18 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 27 Nov 2013:

Cloud and rain across the southeast will clear through Monday morning, with colder conditions following from the northwest. By midweek, it is likely that most parts will become colder than of late, with more widespread overnight frosts and temperatures a little below average by day. Remaining unsettled, with showers or more persistent spells of rain. These may be locally heavy, turning wintry over the hills, and perhaps to low levels in the north. It is likely to be windy at times, perhaps with gales across northern areas. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain rather unsettled and chilly, with spells of rain or showers. These may again turn wintry over hills, and to low levels in the north. The best of any settled and drier weather most likely in central areas.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 13 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Nov 2013 to Thursday 12 Dec 2013:

There remains lower than average confidence regarding which weather patterns are likely to dominate through late November and early December, with no particularly strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. Consequently conditions are not expected to be as mild as recent weeks, instead, temperatures are thought more likely to be just below average than above. There are some signs of precipitation amounts being closer to average for the time of year, suggesting some changeable spells of weather during this forecast period. Whilst there is also currently no signal for widespread wintry conditions, snow is not unusual during late November and early December. So, with temperatures more likely to be just below average, the chance of seeing snow across the UK increases relative to recent weeks.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 13 Nov 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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By midweek, it is likely that most parts will become colder than of late, with more widespread overnight frosts and temperatures a little below average by day.

While I appreciate that the Met don't use intemperate language of the James Maddens of this world, perhaps "temperatures a little below average by day" is a little bit of an understatement of mid next week.  Given its likely to be 5 or more degrees below average surely this is more than "a little".

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