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UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Oct 2013 to Thursday 17 Oct 2013:

Many areas will be dry at first with light winds and variable amounts of cloud. Sunny spells are expected but they may be slow to develop as overnight mist and fog is likely to linger through the mornings. Northwestern parts of the UK are likely to be unsettled and breezy with rain at times, some of which may be heavy. Daytime temperatures will be close to or just above average, perhaps rather warm in places, but there could be some chilly nights. Through the rest of next week, the unsettled weather in the northwest may push gradually southeastwards across the UK, though the far southeast may remain largely dry. Little overall change is expected after that with northwestern Britain likely to see the most unsettled and windy conditions.

Updated: 1206 on Thu 3 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Oct 2013 to Friday 18 Oct 2013:

Many areas will be dry at first with light winds and variable amounts of cloud. Sunny spells are expected but they may be slow to develop as overnight mist and fog is likely to linger through the mornings, especially in central and southern Britain. Northwestern parts of the UK are likely to be unsettled and breezy with rain at times, although brighter spells are possible here too. Daytime temperatures will be close to average, perhaps rather warm in the southeast, but there could be some chilly nights. Through the rest of next week the far west and northwest may well remain unsettled but many places should be dry with some sunshine. Little overall change is expected after that with northwestern Britain likely to see the most unsettled and windiest conditions.

Updated: 1200 on Fri 4 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Oct 2013 to Saturday 2 Nov 2013:

Through the rest of October and the first part of November the most likely scenario is for northern and western parts of the UK to remain the most unsettled with slightly above average amounts of rainfall. Remaining parts of the UK are likely to see more average rainfall amounts. However, there are indications that temperatures may well remain close to or above normal throughout, especially in the south, meaning that the risk of frost may be lower than normal.

Updated: 1256 on Fri 4 Oct 2013

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Oct 2013 to Saturday 19 Oct 2013:

 

Many central and southwestern areas will be largely dry on Thursday with variable amounts of cloud. Elsewhere, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, especially in the east. Similar again on Friday, though the showers becoming less frequent. Temperatures will be much lower than of late and it will turn very chilly overnight where winds fall light, with a touch of frost. Through the rest of next week the far west and northwest may become more unsettled, though many other areas should be dry with some sunshine. Little overall change is expected after that with northwestern Britain likely to see the most unsettled and windiest conditions, though a slight recovery in temperatures is likely.

 

Updated: 1317 on Sat 5 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

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UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Oct 2013 to Sunday 3 Nov 2013:

 

Through the rest of October and the first part of November the most likely scenario is for northern and western parts of the UK to remain the most unsettled with slightly above average amounts of rainfall. Remaining parts of the UK are likely to see more average rainfall amounts. However, there are indications that temperatures may well remain close to or above normal throughout, especially in the south, meaning that the risk of frost may be lower than normal.

 

Updated: 1255 on Sat 5 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

 

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When one sees the mayhem the Met O T+144 caused was it two days ago on the MOD thread, it makes me wonder just what has tilted the balance to cause them to issue such a different forecast, especially in terms of temperature? All we have seen that has altered is that ECMWF has sided with UK Met. Also amusing to see SM's comments last night about the GFS and Met. I know he has a hefty 'cold' bias, which is what we have with UK and now ECMW and finally GFS but it does make you wonder about GFS. I do recall someone in the summer/late summer/early autumn telling us that GFS had a better record than Met or ECMWF. The stats that NOAA push out for the northern hemisphere certainly do not support that view. I would like to see the same kind of stats, has anyone got a link, for the European theatre?

maybe this should be in the MOD thread but it was just my initial reaction to the forecast above after reading the MOD thread over the past 24-36 hours.

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UK Outlook for Friday 11 Oct 2013 to Sunday 20 Oct 2013:

Many areas will be largely dry at first with sunny spells and light winds. However it will be cloudier across eastern parts with some showers, perhaps wintry over Scottish Mountains initially and more persistent rain possible in southeast England. Feeling rather cold, especially across eastern parts. Into the next week, conditions are likely to remain similar at first, although western parts of the UK may become rather more unsettled and breezy, with outbreaks of rain. In contrast, eastern parts will tend to become drier through the week, with more sunshine and temperatures recovering to near-normal across many parts. Thereafter, northern and western parts are likely to become increasingly unsettled and windy, with showers or longer spells of rain. Sunshine and showers likely across southern and eastern areas, with near-normal temperatures.

Updated: 1210 on Sun 6 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Monday 21 Oct 2013 to Monday 4 Nov 2013:

Through the rest of October and the first part of November the most likely scenario is for northern and western parts of the UK to remain the most unsettled with slightly above average amounts of rainfall. Remaining parts of the UK are likely to see closer to average rainfall amounts. However, there are indications that temperatures may well remain close to or above normal throughout, especially in the south, meaning that the risk of frost may be lower than normal.

Updated: 1243 on Sun 6 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Oct 2013 to Monday 21 Oct 2013:

Northwestern areas, particularly western Scotland, should be mainly dry with sunny spells well into next week, with local overnight frost and temperatures near normal by day. Southern and eastern areas generally cloudy, rather cold and breezy at times, with some showers or longer spells of rain, particularly for eastern England. Early next week, drier and probably brighter conditions will tend to become established across more of the UK with some morning fog patches, although the east may still stay cloudy. Temperatures by then should be generally nearer to normal. Towards the end of next week and the following weekend conditions will probably become more unsettled again, particularly for the south and west with the greatest chance of drier conditions in the north and east. Temperatures probably staying near normal.

Updated: 1207 on Mon 7 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Oct 2013 to Tuesday 5 Nov 2013:

Through the rest of October and the first part of November the most likely scenario is for northern and western parts of the UK to remain the most unsettled with slightly above average amounts of rainfall. Remaining parts of the UK are likely to see closer to average rainfall amounts. However, there are indications that temperatures may well remain close to or above normal throughout, especially in the south, meaning that the risk of frost may be lower than normal.

Updated: 1232 on Mon 7 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Oct 2013 to Tuesday 22 Oct 2013:

Northwestern areas will stay mostly dry with some sunshine at times on Sunday and into next week. Temperatures by day here will be close to or just above normal, but there will be a chance of overnight frost. Further south and east, it will generally be cloudier and quite chilly, with some rain at first, particularly across southern and eastern England. Through next week, the drier and brighter conditions further northwest will gradually spread across much of the UK. There are then likely to be some early morning fog patches, which may be locally slow to clear. Temperatures by then should be close to normal for mid-October, although some overnight frost is still possible. Towards the end of the period, it will probably become more unsettled again.

Updated: 1215 on Tue 8 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Oct 2013 to Wednesday 6 Nov 2013:

The more unsettled weather regime thought likely to develop during mid to late October is considered more likely than not to persist through the rest of the month onwards into the first part of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions. There are signs that temperatures during this period may well remain close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year.

Updated: 1215 on Tue 8 Oct 2013

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Monday 14 Oct 2013 to Wednesday 23 Oct 2013:

Northwestern areas generally fine and dry with some sunshine early next week; temperatures here close to or just above normal by day but nights colder with a chance of frost. Elsewhere conditions cloudier, windier and chillier to begin with next week. More unsettled then too with outbreaks of rain, particularly across eastern and southeastern England. The drier and brighter conditions further northwest will gradually spread into the rest of the UK for mid-week though. Cloudier, windier and more unsettled conditions are then expected to return into the far west during the middle of next week before spreading slowly north and eastwards into the rest of the UK later next week. This sets the scene for the rest of this forecast period to be largely on the unsettled side.

Updated: 1207 on Wed 9 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Oct 2013 to Thursday 7 Nov 2013:

The more unsettled weather regime thought likely to develop during mid to late October is considered more likely than not to persist through the rest of the month onwards into the first part of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions. There are signs that temperatures during this period may well remain close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year.

Updated: 1302 on Wed 9 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Oct 2013 to Thursday 24 Oct 2013:

Many places are likely to start rather cloudy, the best of any sunshine in the north and west, with temperatures near normal by day but with some chilly nights. However, eastern parts of England could still see occasional showers with a cooler feel here. The second half of next week will see a gradual transition to more unsettled weather from the west, with outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds spreading northeastwards, and a risk of gales in the west. Most areas will see outbreaks of rain by next weekend, some heavy, however driest and brightest conditions will last longest in the north and east. Temperatures will be near or above average. The following week looks likely to remain rather unsettled, the best of any brightness in the south and east.

Updated: 1203 on Thu 10 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Friday 25 Oct 2013 to Friday 8 Nov 2013:

 

The more unsettled weather regime thought likely to develop by late October is considered more likely than not to persist through the rest of the month onwards into the first part of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions. There are signs that temperatures during this period may well remain close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year.

 

Updated: 1314 on Thu 10 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Oct 2013 to Friday 25 Oct 2013:

From mid-week there will be a change to more unsettled conditions. Temperatures will recover to near average to rather warm with milder nights than of late, but strengthening winds and rain will limit the warmer feel. Bands of occasionally heavy rain and strong winds will spread northeastwards across the UK, interspersed with more showery weather and a risk of gales at times in the west. However, eastern and northeastern parts may only see small amounts of rain initially with brighter conditions persisting longest here. By next weekend, the unsettled weather will affect the whole of the country, with periods of rain and cloud alternating with brighter, showery spells. Probably remaining changeable through the following week, perhaps with a gradual improvement in the south. Temperatures on the warm side of average.

Updated: 1158 on Fri 11 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Oct 2013 to Saturday 9 Nov 2013:

The unsettled weather expected by late October is considered more likely than not to persist through the rest of the month onwards into the first week of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions. Temperatures during this period may well remain close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that the second week of November may see drier than average conditions across some parts of the country with temperatures probably returning to average.

Updated: 1307 on Fri 11 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Oct 2013 to Saturday 26 Oct 2013:

Generally unsettled conditions at first with temperatures recovering to near average or rather warm, and milder nights than of late. However, strengthening winds and rain will limit the warmer feel. Bands of occasionally heavy rain and strong winds will spread northeastwards across the UK, interspersed with more showery weather and a risk of gales at times in the west. However, eastern and northeastern parts may only see small amounts of rain initially with brighter conditions persisting longest here. By next weekend, the unsettled weather will affect the whole of the country, with periods of rain and cloud alternating with brighter, showery spells. Probably remaining changeable through the following week, perhaps with a gradual improvement in the south and east. Temperatures on the warm side of average.

Updated: 1158 on Sat 12 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Oct 2013 to Sunday 10 Nov 2013:

The unsettled weather expected by late October is considered more likely than not to persist through the rest of the month onwards into the first week of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions. Temperatures during this period may well remain close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that the second week of November may see drier than average conditions across some parts of the country with temperatures probably returning to average.

Updated: 1158 on Sat 12 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Friday 18 Oct 2013 to Sunday 27 Oct 2013:

Rain and strengthening winds will push northeastwards on Friday with clearer conditions following. During the weekend, it will remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, locally heavy, and some strong winds. However, there will be some drier and brighter interludes, particularly across the far north and eastern areas. Temperatures near average or rather warm, with milder nights than of late, although chillier in the far north. Through next week, the unsettled weather gradually pushes northwards to affect all areas, with periods of rain and cloud alternating with brighter, showery spells. Rather windy at times, particularly across western areas with the risk of some gales. Perhaps becoming less unsettled in the south and east towards the weekend. Temperatures probably on the warm side of average, with some mild nights.

Updated: 1217 on Sun 13 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Monday 28 Oct 2013 to Monday 11 Nov 2013:

The unsettled weather expected by late October is considered more likely than not to persist through the rest of the month onwards into the first week of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions. Temperatures during this period may well remain close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that the second week of November may see drier than average conditions across some parts of the country with temperatures probably returning to average.

Updated: 1250 on Sun 13 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Oct 2013 to Monday 28 Oct 2013:

During this weekend, it will remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, locally heavy, and some strong winds. However, there will be some drier and brighter interludes, particularly over Shetland and across eastern areas. Temperatures near average or rather warm, with milder nights than of late, although chillier in the north. Through next week, the unsettled weather gradually pushes northwards to affect all areas, with periods of rain and cloud alternating with brighter, showery spells. It will also be rather windy at times. Temperatures ranging from near normal in the north, to rather warmer warm in the south, especially overnight. By next weekend, however, although there will still be some rain or showers, there is a greater likelihood of drier and brighter periods, particularly in the southeast.

Updated: 1208 on Mon 14 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Oct 2013 to Tuesday 12 Nov 2013:

The unsettled and slightly warmer than normal conditions expected at the end of October will probably carry over into the first week of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions. Temperatures during this period may well remain close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that the second week of November may see drier than average conditions across some parts of the country with temperatures probably returning to average.

Updated: 1243 on Mon 14 Oct 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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