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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I would take a middle ground on this, the situation in meteorology is not quite the same as many other sciences, in fact it is possible for large numbers of non-specialist educated citizens to understand the basic premises of this science. I would not get on an airplane flown by an untrained pilot, nor subject myself to medical or dental work from enthusiasts, but in weather forecasting, the differences in performance are subtle at best, and this is probably just a fact that the pros don't like to accept or admit. There is even some room to debate whether the recognized "top professionals" are in fact the best people at their job. I'm not seeing a lot of evidence to support that, the problem is that non-scientific factors such as politics, culture and class identity come into play in these questions, and they never really get a thorough and rigorous "airing" from unbiased observers. It would not surprise me if some private companies and even some individual weather "enthusiasts" had better track records than government agencies in forecasting at various time scales. But it would surprise me if anyone ever cared enough to set up a reliable validation scheme to test that controversial assumption. For many, the comfort of old assumptions is greater than the difficulties posed by a paradigm shift contained in the question, what if there are better ways? What if our taxes aren't giving us the best possible results?

     

    To my mind, a citizen has the responsibility to test out these sorts of questions and get value for his or her tax money. If that value turns out to be the Met Office or various other national weather services, fine, but this is hardly a settled question any more than the climate change controversy is a settled question. Having insiders defining it as settled just gives the impression of a rigged jury.

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I would take a middle ground on this, the situation in meteorology is not quite the same as many other sciences, in fact it is possible for large numbers of non-specialist educated citizens to understand the basic premises of this science. I would not get on an airplane flown by an untrained pilot, nor subject myself to medical or dental work from enthusiasts, but in weather forecasting, the differences in performance are subtle at best, and this is probably just a fact that the pros don't like to accept or admit. There is even some room to debate whether the recognized "top professionals" are in fact the best people at their job. I'm not seeing a lot of evidence to support that, the problem is that non-scientific factors such as politics, culture and class identity come into play in these questions, and they never really get a thorough and rigorous "airing" from unbiased observers. It would not surprise me if some private companies and even some individual weather "enthusiasts" had better track records than government agencies in forecasting at various time scales. But it would surprise me if anyone ever cared enough to set up a reliable validation scheme to test that controversial assumption. For many, the comfort of old assumptions is greater than the difficulties posed by a paradigm shift contained in the question, what if there are better ways? What if our taxes aren't giving us the best possible results? To my mind, a citizen has the responsibility to test out these sorts of questions and get value for his or her tax money. If that value turns out to be the Met Office or various other national weather services, fine, but this is hardly a settled question any more than the climate change controversy is a settled question. Having insiders defining it as settled just gives the impression of a rigged jury.

    Understandably Roger given your huge problems with getting the main stream area of longer range forecasting to accept your theories you have the view you express.However you are mixing up operational meteorology, say as per a qualified pilot flying passengers needing to have a valid weather forecast before he/she is allowed to take off, with the further out predictions, verging into climatology. As an ex professional the idea of any government being able to force or coerce any meteorologist to produce a forecast on any time scale to suit their political ends then we have to part company there. To me the idea is preposterous and quite unfair to any professional short or long range professional forecaster. Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Why not wait till the weekend is over before commenting on the validity of a forecast - there will be a lot of storm activity to the south (according to current output) - this may mean that the south is not as warm and cloud free as some imagine. It wouldn't take much to shift this mess north.

     

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     Disappointment with the message should not cause the shooting of the messenger!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    I gave up trying to explain things some time ago. Having a dig at a quasi government set up, met or any other is something most folk do at one time or another, so let the fun carry on.The only comment to the theme is that they are trained in meteoroliogy as well as model interpretation something that no one on here is. Pretty much the whole of the senior forecast watch will have a first in Maths and or Physics and similar in Meteorology. Its a bit like telling a brain specialist that you know best but as I say let the fun proceed.

    I'm not aware that anyone is having a pop at the Office per se or indeed their undoubtably talented people. It's this particularly product which is being discussed- its record of late has been truly dreadful, 100% wrong. That's not the Office's fault other than the sheer madness of trying to produce a model for the general public that is trying to handle the vagaries of the UK weather at 30-day range.
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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.
  • Location: Chelmsford

    I gave up trying to explain things some time ago. Having a dig at a quasi government set up, met or any other is something most folk do at one time or another, so let the fun carry on.The only comment to the theme is that they are trained in meteoroliogy as well as model interpretation something that no one on here is. Pretty much the whole of the senior forecast watch will have a first in Maths and or Physics and similar in Meteorology. Its a bit like telling a brain specialist that you know best but as I say let the fun proceed.

    I would take a middle ground on this - I think like you say they are much more qualified than the general public and I have great respect for the met office and the work they do and I actually love the longer range outlook.I think the priorities of the MO is not the longer range outlook and the work into this output is probably mostly what is provided by the ECM 32 day outlook, however I would be interested in how much knowledge the MO have in teleconnections ie MJO / AAM etc - is this used to validate a ECM 32 day output?However my disappointment in the Met really starts with alot of the forecasters who appear on the BBC these days and it is obvious they are there for looks and not for meterology - bring back John Kettley and Michael Fish - it seems knowledge and eagerness for the love of the weather is missing which is a shame! Edited by Alex
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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Jun 2013 to Tuesday 18 Jun 2013:

    Starting largely dry and warm across most parts of the UK with sunny periods, although feeling cooler near some coasts, particularly along the North Sea. However there is a risk of some sharp showers breaking out by day, particularly across central and western parts. Also a risk of some more organised, and locally heavy, showery outbreaks spreading across southern parts into next week, when conditions will become more unsettled or changeable. There is an increasing chance of more persistent rain and stronger winds arriving from the west and spreading across most parts during that week. Also becoming generally cooler, with temperatures near or below normal for June. Thereafter remaining generally unsettled for many with rain or showers and near normal temperatures. Best of the brightness in the south and east.

    Updated: 1120 on Tue 4 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Sounds like they expect the trough to make inroads across the UK at some point next week then, just a question of how quickly going by that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Jun 2013 to Wednesday 3 Jul 2013:

    There are currently indications that conditions may be rather changeable through the rest of June and into early July. Temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is partly as a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.

    Updated: 1215 on Tue 4 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

    Edited by Stuart
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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Monday 10 Jun 2013 to Wednesday 19 Jun 2013:

    A largely fine start to the week with sunny periods, with eastern fringes perhaps holding onto some low cloud and mist. There is a small risk of thundery rain in southern and eastern areas of England at first. Feeling warm inland, but still a good deal cooler around coastal areas, especially North Sea coasts. It is then likely to turn gradually more unsettled and cooler towards the middle of the week with rain spreading north and east across the UK but with considerable uncertainty regarding timings. But there should still be some dry and warm weather to be had. Through the weekend and into the next week it looks set to remain rather unsettled, with temperatures mainly around average, possibly rather below, especially in any wetter weather in the west.

    Updated: 1232 on Wed 5 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
    UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Jun 2013 to Wednesday 3 Jul 2013:

    There are currently indications that conditions may be rather changeable through the rest of June and into early July. Temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is partly as a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.

    Updated: 1234 on Wed 5 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Norden (north of Manchester)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine! High humidity - clear blue skies. Heavy snow.
  • Location: Norden (north of Manchester)
    UK forecast Updated: 0301 on Wed 05 Jun 2013 Headline:

    Rather cloudy start, but sunny spells developing. Showers in north.

    Today:

    Rather cloudy start across central and eastern parts. The cloud will lift and break-up inland to give some warm sunny spells, but low cloud may linger in some coastal areas. Isolated heavy showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland later.

    Tonight:

    A mostly dry night with some clear spells allowing some isolated mist and fog patches to form. Cloudier in the north where some isolated showers may continue overnight.

    Thursday:

    Another fine day, bar the odd shower in north, with patchy cloud-cover and some warm sunny spells, particularly in the south and west. Cooler around coasts where sea breezes develop.

    Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

    Remaining fine throughout with further warm sunny spells, though some isolated showers may develop during daylight hours, mainly in the north. Cooler around the coasts where sea breezes develop.

    UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Jun 2013 to Tuesday 18 Jun 2013:

    Starting largely dry and warm across most parts of the UK with sunny periods, although feeling cooler near some coasts, particularly along the North Sea. However there is a risk of some sharp showers breaking out by day, particularly across central and western parts. Also a risk of some more organised, and locally heavy, showery outbreaks spreading across southern parts into next week, when conditions will become more unsettled or changeable. There is an increasing chance of more persistent rain and stronger winds arriving from the west and spreading across most parts during that week. Also becoming generally cooler, with temperatures near or below normal for June. Thereafter remaining generally unsettled for many with rain or showers and near normal temperatures. Best of the brightness in the south and east.


    Yorkshire & Humber Updated: 0351 on Wed 05 Jun 2013 Headline:

    Largely cloudy start. Dry. Some bright or sunny spells.

    Today:

    It will be largely cloudy with mist and fog over hills, especially this morning. Some bright or sunny spells will break through later this morning and this afternoon. Staying dry. Feeling cool near coasts with light winds. Warmer inland. Maximum Temperature 19 C.

    Tonight:

    Dry through the night with cloud and mist returning to many areas, particularly in coastal regions. A few spots of drizzle are possible near coasts. Light winds. Minimum Temperature 7 C.

    Thursday:

    Bright or sunny during the day, although with some early cloud. Still cool near coasts, but warmer inland. Light winds. Maximum Temperature 20 C.

    Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

    High pressure will remain dominant over the area through the period with largely cloudy conditions and occasional brighter spells, especially inland.


    North West EnglandUpdated: 0602 on Wed 05 Jun 2013Headline:

    More cloud-cover today, but some warm sunny spells too.

    Today:

    A fine day across the region today with some warm sunny spells developing. However, there will be more cloud-cover than yesterday and a light shower cannot be ruled out across Cumbria later. Cooler along the coast with sea breezes developing. Maximum Temperature 21 C.

    Tonight:

    It will be a dry night with some good clear spells developing, particularly in the south. Some isolated mist or fog patches may well form towards dawn. Minimum Temperature 6 C.

    Thursday:

    Another fine day, bar the risk of the odd shower in the north, with patchy cloud-cover and some warm sunny spells. Feeling cooler along the coast with sea breezes developing. Maximum Temperature 22 C.

    Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

    Staying mostly dry with warm sunny spells, but with a risk of isolated showers developing during daylight hours. Feeling cooler along the coast with onshore sea breezes developing.


    South West England Updated: 0602 on Wed 05 Jun 2013 Headline:

    More cloud-cover today, but some warm sunny spells too.

    Today:

    A rather cloudy start across some eastern parts, but some early sunshine in west. The cloud will lift and break-up through the morning giving some warm sunny spells. It will feel cooler around the coasts with onshore breezes. Maximum Temperature 20 C.

    Tonight:

    Some late evening sunshine will give way to a dry night with some clear spells. However, cloud amounts will increase from the south later in the night. Minimum Temperature 8 C.

    Thursday:

    Another fine and dry day throughout the region with patchy cloud cover and some lengthy periods of warm sunshine. Feeling cooler along the south coast with an easterly breeze. Maximum Temperature 22 C.

    Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

    Staying mostly dry with warm sunny spells and just a small risk of some showers developing on Sunday. Feeling cooler along the southern coastal districts with a brisk breeze developing

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Jun 2013 to Thursday 20 Jun 2013:

    Largely fine at first in the east with sunny periods but some rain is likely in parts of western Britain, with an increasing risk of thundery showers and stronger winds spreading further east on Wednesday. Feeling warm, especially inland, but temperatures starting to decrease from the west, especially in any prolonged rainfall. It is then likely to remain generally more unsettled and cooler for many through the week with outbreaks of rain, heaviest and most prolonged in west and northwestern Britian. The best of any dry and warm weather is most likely in the east and southeast. Through the weekend and into the next week it looks set to remain rather unsettled, with temperatures mainly around average, possibly rather below, especially in any wetter weather in the west.

    Updated: 1259 on Thu 6 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Friday 21 Jun 2013 to Friday 5 Jul 2013:

    There are currently indications that conditions may be rather changeable through the rest of June and into early July, although some southern areas may become a little less unsettled. Temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is partly as a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.

    Updated: 1259 on Thu 6 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Jun 2013 to Thursday 20 Jun 2013:

    Largely fine at first in the east with sunny periods but some rain is likely in parts of western Britain, with an increasing risk of thundery showers and stronger winds spreading further east on Wednesday. Feeling warm, especially inland, but temperatures starting to decrease from the west, especially in any prolonged rainfall. It is then likely to remain generally more unsettled and cooler for many through the week with outbreaks of rain, heaviest and most prolonged in west and northwestern Britain. The best of any dry and warm weather is most likely in the east and southeast. Through the weekend and into the next week it looks set to remain rather unsettled, with temperatures mainly around average, possibly rather below, especially in any wetter weather in the west.

    Updated: 0725 on Fri 7 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jun 2013 to Saturday 6 Jul 2013:

    Indications currently show that the weather is likely to be rather changeable through the end of June and early part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Southern areas look likely to become a little less unsettled later in the period. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the times of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.

    Updated: 1143 on Fri 7 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Jun 2013 to Saturday 22 Jun 2013:

    An unsettled pattern is likely to continue at first with periods of rain, but also some drier spells. Rain may be heavy at times over western upslopes with the best of any drier weather in eastern parts of the UK. Remaining unsettled into the weekend as bands of rain cross the country with showery interludes in between. Through the weekend and into the following week a northwest southeast split is likely to develop, with the more unsettled weather in the north whilst southern areas are likely to become slightly more settled with some drier and brighter conditions. Throughout the period temperatures are likely to be close to average for the time of year, although warm at times in the south during fine spells.

    Updated: 1113 on Sat 8 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Jun 2013 to Sunday 7 Jul 2013:

    Indications currently show that the weather is likely to be rather changeable through the end of June and early part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Southern areas look likely to become a little less unsettled later in the period. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.

    Updated: 1241 on Sat 8 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Friday 14 Jun 2013 to Sunday 23 Jun 2013:

    Much of the UK will have a fine start, but will quickly turn more unsettled with an increased risk of rain and showers spreading across the country during the weekend. Rain could be heavy and persistent at times, particularly in the northwest, with the best of any drier and brighter weather in the southeast. Into the following week it is likely to remain unsettled with bands of rain moving through the UK with brighter, showery interludes in between. A northwest southeast divide will continue with wetter and windier conditions in the north and drier and brighter weather in the south. Temperatures are likely to be close to average, but slightly cooler at times in the northwest and warm at times with any brighter spells in the southeast.

    Updated: 1118 on Sun 9 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    The 6-15 update follows the anomaly charts output pretty closely so no issues with their overall prediction from me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Monday 24 Jun 2013 to Monday 8 Jul 2013:

    Indications currently show that the weather is likely to be rather changeable through the end of June and early part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Southern areas look likely to become a little less unsettled later in the period. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.

    Updated: 1235 on Sun 9 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Jun 2013 to Monday 24 Jun 2013:

    Sunny spells for most on Saturday, but rain in the south at times, and scattered showers in the north. On Sunday, rain spreading across southern areas, heaviest in southwest England and South Wales. Temperatures near or a little below normal, occasionally warm in the southeast on Sunday. Next week starting rather unsettled for most, then a spell of drier and brighter weather is expected for much of the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, cloud and rain will return to the northwest, with a low risk of heavy rain in the south towards midweek. Temperatures generally close to average, but some cool nights. Thereafter, rather unsettled, especially towards the northwest, the best of drier spells in the south. Temperatures close to normal, but warm at times in any brighter spells.

    Updated: 1133 on Mon 10 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Jun 2013 to Tuesday 9 Jul 2013:

    Indications currently show that the weather is likely to be rather changeable through the end of June and early part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Conditions will generally be more unsettled towards the northwest of the UK, with the best of any drier and brighter periods in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.

    Updated: 1237 on Mon 10 Jun 2013

     

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Jun 2013 to Tuesday 25 Jun 2013:

    Sunny spells and scattered showers are likely on Sunday. A few of the showers may be heavy, mainly in the north and west. More persistent rain may also affect southwestern parts of the UK later. Temperatures generally near or below average for the time of year, but feeling warm enough in any sunshine. The changeable theme is likely to continue through the rest of the period with further showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures generally close to or a little below average. However, towards next weekend and into the following week, southern and eastern parts probably seeing some lengthier drier and brighter conditions. Temperatures remaining close to normal, but warm at times in the south and east during any fine spells.

    Updated: 1159 on Tue 11 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Jun 2013 to Wednesday 10 Jul 2013:

    Indications currently show that the weather is likely to stay rather changeable through the end of June and early part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Conditions will generally be more unsettled towards the northwest of the UK, with the best of the drier and brighter periods in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.

    Updated: 1234 on Tue 11 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Strange how they see the start of this period staying "changeable" yet a day before this they expect it to be settled in eastern and southern parts!

     

    UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Jun 2013 to Tuesday 25 Jun 2013:

    However, towards next weekend and into the following week, southern and eastern parts probably seeing some lengthier drier and brighter conditions. Temperatures remaining close to normal, but warm at times in the south and east during any fine spells.

    Edited by Summer Sun
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