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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Jun 2013 to Monday 10 Jun 2013:

    A northwest, southeast split is set to develop through the weekend, with many northern and western parts of the UK likely to become predominantly dry, although the chance of a few showers, mainly in the far northwest. Meanwhile, the southeast will remain rather more unsettled with occasional spells of rain or showers, and some persistent and locally heavy rain possible at times, especially towards the far east and southeast. Little change into the start of next week, but then a gradual trend for more unsettled conditions to become established across the UK as the week progresses. Temperatures will be near average across much of the UK, but cool in the east and southeast, whilst becoming rather warm in the drier, sunnier northwest.

    Updated: 1145 on Mon 27 May 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Jun 2013 to Tuesday 25 Jun 2013:

    Probably staying rather changeable with further spells of unsettled weather, but some drier and brighter interludes are likely too. Temperatures generally near, or on the cool side of normal, although still feeling pleasant in sunnier interludes.

    Updated: 1202 on Mon 27 May 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Sunday 2 Jun 2013 to Tuesday 11 Jun 2013:

    Often rather cloudy on Sunday, with occasional showery rain, the best of any drier and brighter weather likely towards the southwest of the UK. The drier conditions becoming more widespread on Monday across more central and eastern parts, though the northwest may start to turn more unsettled. Temperatures generally a little below average, but feeling warm in sunshine. Probably becoming more unsettled across many parts through the middle of next week, with heavy rain and strong winds at times, especially in the northwest, while the southeast may avoid the rain until Thursday. Temperatures recovering to nearer normal, perhaps warm in the southeast. Through the latter part of next week and into the following weekend, probably staying on the unsettled side, with temperatures near normal for the time of year.

    Updated: 1140 on Tue 28 May 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The update is now reflecting what the models are showing a fairly big change from 24 hours ago but its one that reflects the output

     

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I somehow suspect that will not be the last change in the same time scale that is 2-11 June.

    Personal experience at doing large changes often led to egg on face and a trend back to a sort of mid way house!

    Looking at the GFS output for the same date, a week on Friday and the various runs and it has almost no consistency. As posted earlier in another thread the 500mb charts are not good forguidance so doing such a large change is a bit odd to me. Rather a less dramatic change perhaps? But hey ho who am I to comment on UK Met as its over 30 years since I was involved in that line of work!

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Why o why do the met office even do this outlook. It just changes with the wind ! What's the point in even trying to go by this as weather outlook! If they are just going by the models on a day to day basis any idiot could do a outlook forecast ! Where's the personal input. Just a complete waste of time. Don't even get me started on their further ahead outlook! It's really professional!!!!! Lot of thinking and hard work put into that one !

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Why o why do the met office even do this outlook. It just changes with the wind ! What's the point in even trying to go by this as weather outlook! If they are just going by the models on a day to day basis any idiot could do a outlook forecast ! Where's the personal input. Just a complete waste of time. Don't even get me started on their further ahead outlook! It's really professional!!!!! Lot of thinking and hard work put into that one !

    If only there were any useful 'alternatives'? if the Met's approach is 'unprofessional', what on earth does that say for all the others?

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    Personally and it's only a personal opinion but nobody can argue that this forecast doesnt change with the wind. How can u call a forecast accurate or professional if its a complete reversal of what it said 24hrs beforehand! Yes I know the weather changes but surely to god a 'professional organisation' with all there data and computers could muster a better forecast than the two given over the last 24hrs! Here's my forecast;

    NW to remain unsettled, cool and windy, England and Wales to remain warm settled and sunny!

    O hang on

    England and Wales to be unsettled,cool and windy, NW to remain warm settled and sunny!!

    O hang on

    Maybe if I stick my neck out England and Wales may be somewhere in between the above so warm settled and sunny with occasional spells of cool, unsettled and windy weather and the NW unsettled cool and windy but with lovely warm and sunny interludes!

    There u go all done and analysed in the space of 5 mins without all that glorious equipment and expertise in the met office!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Jun 2013 to Wednesday 26 Jun 2013:

    Probably staying rather changeable with further spells of unsettled weather, but some drier and brighter interludes are likely too. Temperatures generally near, or on the cool side of normal, although still feeling pleasant in sunnier interludes.

    Updated: 1236 on Tue 28 May 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Sounds to me that they are going for something broadly similiar to the ECM Op this morning.

    Settled start to the week, deteriorating midweek onwards.

    So a few settled days followed by a few unsettled days. Typical June-like weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Shall we leave the right or wrong of the latest output until the 11 June to see how far out the current forecast is?

    It will be easy enough to check up on this issue with the link here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    Why o why do the met office even do this outlook. It just changes with the wind ! What's the point in even trying to go by this as weather outlook! If they are just going by the models on a day to day basis any idiot could do a outlook forecast ! Where's the personal input. Just a complete waste of time. Don't even get me started on their further ahead outlook! It's really professional!!!!! Lot of thinking and hard work put into that one !

    I think you'll find that the forecast changes as the model information changes; would you expect anything else?The atmosphere is a dynamic system, not a series of static snapshots from each model run where a forecast is made and then set in stone until the due date arrives.The medium and long range ( 15-30 day ) forecasts are supposed to give an indication of the general weather expected given the information currently available; how is that unprofessional?Your post suggests you have only the most tenuous grasp of what medium range forecasting entails and negative criticism on that basis is all too easy. There's no one out there doing it any better than the Met' Office and most aren't even in the same league.
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Shall we leave the right or wrong of the latest output until the 11 June to see how far out the current forecast is?It will be easy enough to check up on this issue with the link here.

    Yes we can't prejudge John but i do wonder if they follow the mean trends rather than the operationals which have shown different placements for the ridging AH.

    Surely anyone reading between the lines that follow the outputs could produce forecasts that wont change so much on a daily basis.

    The GEFs and ECM mean outputs have been pretty consistent for days now with ridging across the UK from the south west as the cut off trough moves away SE by the end of the week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    Sounds to me that they are going for something broadly similiar to the ECM Op this morning.Settled start to the week, deteriorating midweek onwards.So a few settled days followed by a few unsettled days. Typical June-like weather.

    I think the main point that has been consistent, and imo still is consistent, is that there remains no signal for any sustained High pressure beyond some transitory ridges (ie like perhaps the first part of next week)  There appears to be something of a change, perhaps, to a more traditional June pattern in terms of the Azores High behaving more like it is expected to in summer - but that doesn't always mean for the UK it will be a settled pattern. It would be ironic if the pattern went from being too over amplified to allow the Azores High to make any eastwards progress (as it has been) to being far too flat so that the jet stream bounces further north, but not far enough north to keep the UK away from an atlantic influence of trailing fronts and bands of rain interspersed with a few drier sunnier days here and there.

    Edited by Tamara Road
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    I think you'll find that the forecast changes as the model information changes; would you expect anything else?The atmosphere is a dynamic system, not a series of static snapshots from each model run where a forecast is made and then set in stone until the due date arrives.The medium and long range ( 15-30 day ) forecasts are supposed to give an indication of the general weather expected given the information currently available; how is that unprofessional?Your post suggests you have only the most tenuous grasp of what medium range forecasting entails and negative criticism on that basis is all too easy. There's no one out there doing it any better than the Met' Office and most aren't even in the same league.

    Just my opinion, i think they should do away with these daily outlook updates,and maybe just issue one a week,on a friday perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I suspect whatever they do folk will not be content.

    To me doing a daily 1-5 day with a 6-15 issued as well seems a logical way of doing things. 15 days is the very limit of being able to use any synoptic output and even from 10 days out other data is needed to be able to put some kind of temperature, wind, weather detail for the main UK areas. 16-30 is in the realms of long range output and can really only be dealt with by their own data and from ECMWF I suspect although I have no inside knowledge these days.

    I do support the comments made by TM above here.

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Yes we can't prejudge John but i do wonder if they follow the mean trends rather than the operationals which have shown different placements for the ridging AH.Surely anyone reading between the lines that follow the outputs could produce forecasts that wont change so much on a daily basis.The GEFs and ECM mean outputs have been pretty consistent for days now with ridging across the UK from the south west as the cut off trough moves away SE by the end of the week.

    I am sure they use ALL available data phil, analyse it, use their deep knowledge of meteorology and how all the models behave in differing set ups, then make their forecast.That said I have already expressed surprise at the rather radical change today.
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK Outlook for Monday 3 Jun 2013 to Wednesday 12 Jun 2013:

     

    Fine and settled for most at first with light winds and some sunshine but it will probably be rather cloudy. There may be some patchy rain and drizzle in northwestern areas with fresher winds here. It is likely to then turn much more unsettled as we move into the second half of the week, with a short spell of wet and windy weather, but there is a lot of uncertainty over this detail. Thereafter more variable weather types with some longer drier spells, perhaps more likely towards the north and west, whilst southern areas may have some more significant rainfall at times. Temperatures largely near average or rather cool, perhaps becoming rather warm at times except near exposed or windward coasts.

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=regionalForecast&fcTime=1369782000

    Edited by Gavin.
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Jun 2013 to Thursday 27 Jun 2013:

     

    Probably staying rather changeable with further spells of unsettled weather, but some drier and brighter interludes are likely too. Mostly likely a northwest - southeast split with the best of any drier brighter weather in the north and west, with the south and east more likely to see the most unsettled conditions. Temperatures generally near, or on the cool side of normal, although still feeling pleasant in sunnier interludes.

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=regionalForecast&fcTime=1369782000

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
    UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Jun 2013 to Thursday 13 Jun 2013:

    A good deal of fine and dry weather to start this period, although perhaps somewhat cloudier and damp in the far northwest at first. As the week progresses, there is an increased risk of showers breaking out, initially across east and southeastern areas, but this risk becoming rather more widespread with time. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, showers may merge to provide more persistent rain in places. Into next week, a more generally unsettled picture looks most likely, with showers or longer spells of rain possible in many areas, although there is some uncertainty as to the detail. Temperatures on the whole will remain close to normal and perhaps a little above in more prolonged brightness inland, but remaining a little cooler around windward coasts.

    Updated: 1209 on Thu 30 May 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Friday 14 Jun 2013 to Friday 28 Jun 2013:

    On balance, there are currently no strong signals, but the more likely scenario is for conditions to stay rather changeable with further spells of unsettled weather, but also some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures generally near, or on the cool side of normal, partly aided by cooler than average sea surface temperatures for the time of year, although still feeling pleasant enough in sunnier interludes.

    Updated: 1237 on Thu 30 May 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jun 2013 to Friday 14 Jun 2013:

    A settled start to the period with a good deal of fine and dry weather, although perhaps somewhat cloudier with some rain across the far northeast. As the week progresses, there is an increased risk of showers developing, initially across east and southeastern areas, but this risk becoming rather more widespread with time. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, showers may merge to provide more persistent rain in places. It is likely to remain unsettled into the following week, with showers or longer spells of rain possible, this mainly in the west with eastern areas possibly seeing the best of the drier weather. Temperatures will remain close to normal and perhaps a little above in brighter areas inland, but remaining a little cooler around windward coasts.

    Updated: 1113 on Fri 31 May 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Jun 2013 to Saturday 29 Jun 2013:

     

    There are currently no strong or clear signals for any particular weather pattern to dominate through the rest of June. However, temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is likely a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

    Edited by Gavin.
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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
    UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jun 2013 to Saturday 15 Jun 2013:

    There will still be a good deal of fine and dry weather, although cloud during Thursday could be thick enough to produce a few isolated sharp showers. On Friday and into the weekend, there will be an increased risk of rain or showers, some heavy with thunder, initially across southern parts with the risk of becoming rather more widespread with time. The best of the drier and brighter weather will remain in northern and western areas. Temperatures will remain generally around normal, but above normal in sunnier areas inland, especially in the west, and conversley cooler around eastern coasts. The following week may continue to see some unsettled weather around the UK, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed with drier and brighter conditions.

    Updated: 1118 on Sat 1 Jun 2013

     

     

    http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Jun 2013 to Sunday 30 Jun 2013:

    There are currently no strong or clear signals for any particular weather pattern to dominate through the rest of June. However, temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is likely a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.

    Updated: 1151 on Sat 1 Jun 2013

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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