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Well if that is how you want to read their latest update PM then fair enough, it's all down to personal interpretation I guess.

I think it's un-wise to bet against a cold spell of some sorts within the next 2 weeks, how long and severe it maybe is of course up for grabs.

Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

Posted Images

Well if that is how you want to read their latest update PM then fair enough, it's all down to personal interpretation I guess.

I have read there latest long range update, and there latest short range. And everything to me reads as cold spell starting at the weekend with frost's and fog, snow showers. Uncertainty as always long term, but as they say" below average" temps look likely.

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I think it's un-wise to bet against a cold spell of some sorts within the next 2 weeks, how long and severe it maybe is of course up for grabs.

This in not about whether there will or won't be a cold spells tho, I think everyone on here accepts there will be, this is about the MO's latest update and their caution/degree of confidence in it.

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The Met Office, regardless of whether there is a cold spell or not, are just covering their a**e. The general public and the more sensationalist media will tear them to shreds if they speak in overly certain terms and the outcome doesn't match. Suffice it to say they'll be informing central government of any potential risks coming up and should dangerous conditions be much closer they'll make these thoughts public. I pity the Met at times because they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Anyone with a genuine undertanding of meteorology is aware by now that we have a substantial risk of a significant cold weather event on the horizon.

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Well the overnight runs suggest the MO were once again right not to get too carried away with the upcoming colder spell...as is often the case to be fair. Will be interesting to see what change of language/emphasis they use this morning, but I'd again expect them to be guarded and talk of nothing more dramatic than a 'colder outlook'.

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Nov 2012 to Thursday 6 Dec 2012:

Unsettled conditions look set to continue at first, with showers and occasional longer spells of rain affecting many parts and turning heavy in places. Eastern areas are most likely to see the most persistent rain. Often windy, with the risk of gales on eastern coasts. Temperatures slightly below normal bringing a risk of hill snow and overnight frost. Conditions gradually becoming drier and more settled later next week, although southeastern areas most prone to further prolonged spells of rain. Temperatures continuing on the cold side of normal, with a risk of widespread overnight frosts. By the start of December, colder than average conditions are favoured, with an increased risk of frost and fog, and some wintry showers.

Updated: 1142 on Thu 22 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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I'd say todays update is very much as I expected, i.e guarded, with the main message still about colder than average conditions 'being favoured' and not guaranteed as we go into Dec.

As ever though, there's no such thing as a guarantee of any type of weather at the range being discussed, so I'd assume that the Met Office have probably never offered one on any longer range outlook.

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As ever though, there's no such thing as a guarantee of any type of weather at the range being discussed, so I'd assume that the Met Office have probably never offered one on any longer range outlook.

To be fair I've never seen them use the word guarantee when talking about a specific weather type 10-14 days hence, but I have on many occasions seen them use language that highlights high confidence. I personally feel the line they are treading with this forecast looks about right, as the first attack may not be that wintry for many, but imho their latest 30 day output should better reflect the upstream signals for some significant cold/wintry conditions into week 2 and 3 of Dec.

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To be fair I've never seen them use the word guarantee when talking about a specific weather type 10-14 days hence, but I have on many occasions seen them use language that highlights high confidence. I personally feel the line they are treading with this forecast looks about right, as the first attack may not be that wintry for many, but imho their latest 30 day output should better reflect the upstream signals for some significant cold/wintry conditions into week 2 and 3 of Dec.

Shedhead. Missing your model output analysis in the model thread recently.

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their 30 day outlook is almost exactly what I would post had I been asked!

There is little sign on the upper air charts of any change in the 15-18 day period in terms of milder weather starting to appear. What happens beyond the first week in December is not clear but their summary is about as near as anyone is likely to get UNTIL something shows up to contradict it, IF it does.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Nov 2012 to Friday 7 Dec 2012:

Outbreaks of rain will continue to affect the far southeast Wednesday before clearing away by Thursday. Elsewhere will see a mixture of sunshine and showers throughout the rest of next week, with the heaviest showers towards the northeast. It will also remain windy at times, with the risk of gales in the southeast at first. Temperatures slightly below normal bringing a risk of hill snow and overnight frost. From next weekend onwards, temperatures are likely to fall away further as some slightly more settled and drier weather develops, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. Eastern and southeastern areas are likely though to remain unsettled at times with further showers or longer spells of rain, and these turning wintry across the higher ground.

Updated: 1105 on Fri 23 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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Another measured output from the MO, which describes where we are going next week and into early Dec without a shread of hype and pointless ramping. Colder yes, but not cold. Some snow yes, but mainly on high ground. Thankfully becoming drier in those areas that have seen so much rain of late.

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Its a bit like a horse race commentary with the meto - Number 1 stands a good chance conditions favor this horse however number 2 won his last race here and lightning does strike twice. Number 3 has been runner up in his last two races can he go one further this time out.

The point being that it is increasingly difficult going forward to forecast. We do know that it will start to turn colder but how much colder and how much snow is up for debate.

Good fence sitting by the meto and well within their rights to do so until we get good solid agreement within a reliable period.

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And the form horse has to be the Met Office, with all their extra analytical numerical tools, which they have to hand. Posted Image

From read between the lines of each issued forecast, there clearly is a great deal of uncertainty going forward. Not surpisingly so as FI is currently around t+96 hours. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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And the form horse has to be the Met Office, with all their extra analytical numerical tools, which they have to hand. Posted Image

From read between the lines of each issued forecast, there clearly is a great deal of uncertainty going forward. Not surpisingly so as FI is currently around t+96 hours. Posted Image

Dont know about that the meto being form horse. The form horse is nature itself in my mind. Very much agree that the pattern going forward is nowhere near sorted. Plenty more twists and turns to come.

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Wintry showers over higher ground does not mean snow. Typically the use of wintry showers is used to mean hail and sleet and maybe snow. So clearly they are saying it will be cooler than normal with potential for rain and this rain to be "wintry" over higher ground. Now this is not Snowmageddon being forecast.

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The Met are doing a kind of "mean" forecast. It could well be much colder if the synoptics set up right, but it could also be less cold if the synoptics are less favourable. We know some major high lat blocking is in the offering, but as the Deterministic and ensemble data shows from run to run small changes in the grand shceme could have significant impact on just how cold it will be. So the Met can't really give any other forecast until things firm up closer to the time.

From my perspective we look to be leaning towards the cold/snowy option, rather than the damp and cold/snow on hills in the last few runs. So will await the 12Zs with interest to see where we are later today and into the weekend.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Nov 2012 to Friday 7 Dec 2012:

Outbreaks of rain will continue to affect the far southeast Wednesday, clearing away by Thursday. Elsewhere, a mixture of sunshine and showers throughout the rest of next week, with the heaviest showers towards the northeast, wintry over high ground with hill snow in the north. Windy at times, with the risk of gales in the southeast at first. It will be rather cold with a risk of overnight frost and icy patches. Becoming cold into the start of December with widespread overnight frosts. More settled than of late with sunny spells, but also wintry showers, especially in the north and east where accumulations over high ground are likely with snow perhaps falling at low levels.

Updated: 0244 on Sat 24 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Snow falling at low levels!

Edited by Gavin.
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UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2012 to Sunday 9 Dec 2012:

A mixture of sunshine and wintry showers at first. The showers mostly affecting eastern areas, with the west tending to see the best of the drier conditions. The heaviest showers will be towards the northeast, falling as snow over higher ground. Windy at times, with the risk of gales in exposure. It will be rather cold with a risk of overnight frost and icy patches. Becoming cold as we continue into December, with widespread overnight frosts. Further wintry showers, especially in the north and east, where accumulations over high ground are likely with snow perhaps falling to low levels. Also the potential for some more widespread outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow, especially towards the southwest.

Updated: 1156 on Sun 25 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2012 to Sunday 9 Dec 2012:

A mixture of sunshine and wintry showers at first. The showers mostly affecting eastern areas, with the west tending to see the best of the drier conditions. The heaviest showers will be towards the northeast, falling as snow over higher ground. Windy at times, with the risk of gales in exposure. It will be rather cold with a risk of overnight frost and icy patches. Becoming cold as we continue into December, with widespread overnight frosts. Further wintry showers, especially in the north and east, where accumulations over high ground are likely with snow perhaps falling to low levels. Also the potential for some more widespread outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow, especially towards the southwest.

Updated: 1156 on Sun 25 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Not the best of updates for those in the West looking for snow, could be another damp squib for some of us possibly.
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