Meto Uk Further Outlook

[damianslaw]

First mention of snow! Looks a sea-saw situation.. suggesting a fairly fluid pattern, altnerating polar maritime and tropical maritime airstreams, and still suggestion of something possibly colder anticyclonic as we move deeper into November, but this keeps being pushed back and low confidence.

[Summer Sun]

Friday 22 Oct - Sunday 31 Oct

Sunny spells and showers for most areas at the start of this period with some places remaining dry. Feeling breezy at times especially along northern, eastern and southern coasts. Temperatures falling to below average for most across the UK, increasing the likelihood of snow and wintery conditions over higher ground restricted to northern areas. It will likely turn unsettled again over the weekend as cloud, rain and stronger winds arrive from the west. Unsettled conditions then likely to persist towards the end of October across the UK. Temperatures most likely trending up after a colder start to this period. Any further spells of colder weather likely short lived and restricted to the north of the UK.

Monday 1 Nov - Monday 15 Nov

Through the end of October and early November the weather is likely to be dominated by systems arriving from the Atlantic. Remaining unsettled and windy with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and west. Driest conditions across the south especially the southeast with lighter winds but the risk of overnight fog at times. From early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Forecast for November hasn't changed for ages..

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 23 Oct - Monday 1 Nov

A dry start to the period Saturday staying mainly dry and bright in parts of the south and east through the day, outbreaks of rain possible across the northwest at first, spreading eastward. Turning windier again with a chance of coastal gales in the west. Through the first half of the period it will settled, especially in the west. Initially cold, with chance of overnight rural frost, and showers wintry over highest ground. Temperatures trending upwards through the period. The rest of October will be dominated by weather arriving from the Atlantic. Often unsettled and windy, with outbreaks of rain. Wettest in the north and west. Briefer dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across south and southeastern areas. Winds lighter here, with risk of overnight fog at times.

Tuesday 2 Nov - Tuesday 16 Nov

The beginning of this period will likely remain unsettled with many systems arriving from the Atlantic. It will remain wet and windy with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and west. Driest conditions across the south especially the southeast with lighter winds but the risk of overnight fog at times. From early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 24 Oct - Tuesday 2 Nov

A wet start to the period on Sunday with showers, sometimes heavy in the west and risk of thunderstorms in the northwest. Turning windier again with a chance of coastal gales in the west and northwest. Becoming more settled early in the week, especially in the west. Initially cold, with chance of overnight rural frost, and showers wintry over highest ground. Temperatures trending upwards through the period. The rest of October will be dominated by weather arriving from the Atlantic. Often unsettled and windy, with outbreaks of rain. Wettest in the north and west. Briefer dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across south and southeastern areas. Winds lighter here, with risk of overnight fog at times.

Wednesday 3 Nov - Wednesday 17 Nov

The beginning of this period will likely remain unsettled with many systems arriving from the Atlantic. It will remain wet and windy with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and west. Driest conditions across the south especially the southeast with lighter winds but the risk of overnight fog at times. From early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Must be over a week now the Met office has said settled towards end if the period with frost and fog yet confidence very low.. keeps being pushed back but the signals must be there..

[jules216]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Must be over a week now the Met office has said settled towards end if the period with frost and fog yet confidence very low.. keeps being pushed back but the signals must be there..

Thats because they are expecting typical La Nina response of Mid Atlantic ridge with Sceuro trough, but as I wrote days ago, MJO being in phases 1 and 2 means more unsettled UK and very mild central Europe. Once again another mild November in La Nina on the cards, unlesss MJO breaks through to typical Nina phases 4-6.

Edited October 20, 2021 by jules216

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 26 Oct - Thursday 4 Nov

Fine at first in the east on Tuesday before more prolonged, organised rain arrives in the west, with fresh to strong winds. Through the first few days of this period, Atlantic systems will continue to move in from the west, bringing heavy rain and strong, locally gale force winds. Some rainbands could become slow-moving with locally large rainfall accumulations possible, particularly over western hills. Temperatures generally around or a little above average. The rest of October will continue to see unsettled and windy weather arriving from the Atlantic, with outbreaks of potentially heavy rain for many. Wettest in the west and northwest, but still with brief dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across some south and southeastern areas.

Thursday 4 Nov - Thursday 18 Nov

To start the period remaining unsettled as before, but from early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

On 20/10/2021 at 09:39, jules216 said:

Thats because they are expecting typical La Nina response of Mid Atlantic ridge with Sceuro trough, but as I wrote days ago, MJO being in phases 1 and 2 means more unsettled UK and very mild central Europe. Once again another mild November in La Nina on the cards, unlesss MJO breaks through to typical Nina phases 4-6.

What helps drive MJO? 

[Dorsetbred]

On 21/10/2021 at 17:46, damianslaw said:

What helps drive MJO? 

Appreciate you asked What help drives, I can't help there, yet I'm sure you will be aware of the following, as it talks about the MJO effect on Europe, maybe there some answers deep in the text.

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2012/12942-prediction-madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-impact-european-weather-ecmwf-monthly-forecasts.pdf

Edited October 21, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 28 Oct - Saturday 6 Nov

Through this period, Atlantic systems will move in from the west, bringing unsettled and windy conditions. On Thursday, the northwest may start mainly dry with a few showers, but turning wetter later as some rainbands becoming slow-moving, while the southeast is more likely to see dry and fine conditions. The rest of October will continue to see unsettled and windy weather from the Atlantic, with outbreaks of potentially heavy rain for many. Some possible slow-moving rainbands may bring potentially locally large rainfall accumulations, particularly over western hills. Wettest in the west and northwest, but still with brief dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across some south and southeastern areas, with lighter winds and a risk of overnight fog towards the end of the period. Temperatures generally around or slightly above average.

Saturday 6 Nov - Saturday 20 Nov

In the longer term, a continuation of the generally unsettled theme seems likely at first, with more rain and further showers in many places, especially once again in western areas - with temperatures around or a little above average. Towards the middle and end of November, there are signals for a greater chance of more settled conditions developing, particularly in southern and western areas, where colder nights, with a risk of frosts are likely, as well as an increased chance of mist and fog - especially overnight.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Reading between the lines.. the Met Office appear to see the signal for mid Atlantic heights throwing in frontal incursions around NE flank perhaps more suppressed at first but ridging in more strongly as the month wears on hence driest conditions in the south and west and more frontal showery activity for the north and east with a NW airstream. Quite a normal pattern for November under a La Nina base state. Not a bad pattern for those wanting a cooler more late autumnal feel with limited deep low pressure systems and associated bouts of heavy rain and gales that often occur with flooding, nor the sustained moist dank south westerly airstreams as we are about to endure in the coming week and their associated overcast low cloud very mild conditions. Hopefully we can see the return of drier sunnier conditions with some fog and frost through November, at a time when light levels are low.. weak late autumn sunshine always welcomed and much needed.

[Summer Sun]

Friday 29 Oct - Sunday 7 Nov

Towards the end of October, Atlantic systems will move in from the west, bringing unsettled and windy conditions. On Friday, although the north and far southeast may see some dry spells, the weather will be unsettled for the rest of the UK, especially in central and western areas, where spells of prolonged heavy rain may develop. The weather will remain unsettled across the UK for the rest of October, with heavy rainfall likely to continue in the west. In the second half of the period, wettest in the west and northwest, but still with brief dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across some south and southeastern areas, with lighter winds and a risk of overnight fog towards the end of the period. Temperatures generally around or slightly above average.

Monday 8 Nov - Monday 22 Nov

In the longer term, a continuation of the generally unsettled theme seems likely at first, with more rain and further showers in many places, especially once again in western areas - with temperatures around or a little above average. Towards the middle and end of November, there are signals for a greater chance of more settled conditions developing, particularly in southern and western areas, where colder nights, with a risk of frosts are likely, as well as an increased chance of mist and fog - especially overnight.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 30 Oct - Monday 8 Nov

Towards the end of October, Atlantic systems will move in from the west, bringing unsettled and windy conditions. On Saturday, although the north and far southeast may see some dry spells, the weather will be unsettled for the rest of the UK, especially in central and western areas, where spells of prolonged heavy rain may develop. The weather will remain unsettled across the UK for the rest of October, with heavy rainfall likely to continue in the west. In the second half of the period, it will be wettest in the west and northwest, but still with some drier interludes. Driest conditions are likely across southern and southeastern areas, with lighter winds and a risk of overnight fog. Temperatures are expected to be generally around or slightly above average.

Tuesday 9 Nov - Tuesday 23 Nov

In the longer term, a continuation of the generally unsettled theme seems likely at first, with more rain and further showers in many places, especially once again in western areas - with temperatures around or a little above average. Towards the middle and end of November, there are signals for a greater chance of more settled conditions developing, particularly in southern and western areas, where colder nights are likely with a risk of frost, as well as an increased chance of mist and fog - especially overnight.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 31 Oct - Tuesday 9 Nov

Sunday is expected to be a generally unsettled and windy day, with prolonged and sometimes heavy rain for some parts being followed by showers for most. There is a low risk of a potentially very windy spell lasting into early next week. Thereafter, a spell of cooler weather is expected due to northwesterly winds, possibly becoming northerly later. It will remain unsettled, where longer spells of rain will be interspersed with showers, and there is the potential for further episodes of strong winds. As a result of this, temperatures will be at or below average, and this will be cold enough for snow over the Scottish Highlands. Any settled spells during this period will be short-lived, but if they occur overnight, frost and fog is likely.

Wednesday 10 Nov - Wednesday 24 Nov

Northwesterly winds are likely to continue to dominate during this period. It will continue to feel cool with temperatures below average for many. The unsettled weather will continue, where the west and northwest will see the wettest conditions, and the east and southeast the driest. Longer spells of rain will be interspersed with showers, these likely wintry over the Scottish Highlands and perhaps the hills of northern England and Wales later in the month. There will be some drier and settled spells, but these will often be short-lived. However, if they occur overnight, frost and fog is likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Methuselah]

Oh. My, Gaaad, wintry showers over the Scottish Highlands in late November? Well, I never!

[Summer Sun]

Monday 1 Nov - Wednesday 10 Nov

Further persistent rain is expected for most areas heading into next week, however not as widespread as recently, with very windy conditions possible for north and northeastern areas. It will remain generally unsettled through the week, with further spells of rain and a risk of gales across northern and eastern coastal regions. North to northwesterly winds continue to strengthen, bringing further wet and windy conditions, interspersed with often heavy showers, some of which are likely to turn to snow over mountainous areas to the north. Unsettled conditions are likely to remain for much of this period, with a few short-lived settled interludes arriving later. It will feel cooler than average for this time of the year.

Thursday 11 Nov - Thursday 25 Nov

Northwesterly winds are likely to continue to dominate during this period. It will continue to feel cool with temperatures below average for many. The unsettled weather will continue, where the west and northwest will see the wettest conditions, and the east and southeast the driest. Longer spells of rain will be interspersed with showers, these are likely to be wintry over the Scottish Highlands and perhaps the hills of northern England and Wales later in the month. There will be some drier and settled spells, but these will often be short-lived. However, if they occur overnight, frost and fog is likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Ackkers]

Surprised there’s not more talk about the extended. Looks quite cold to me. “

Saturday 13 Nov - Saturday 27 Nov

Temperatures set to be slightly below average overall throughout this period with an increased likelihood of wintry showers from the north and northwest at times. These showers are initially most likely over high ground with an increasing chance of them reaching lower levels later in the month. Less windy than the previous week overall, with stormy conditions much less likely than usual. Little evidence to suggest any prolonged widespread settled conditions as often areas of messy cloud, rain and showers will be around. Any clear spells that do occur give way to frost and fog as expected for the time of year. Overall remaining drier than average.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 29 Oct 2021”

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 4 Nov - Saturday 13 Nov

An unsettled and changeable start to this period with typically autumnal conditions dominating the weather. Wettest conditions expected in the northwest with bands of heavy rain and showers which later briefly give way to drier interludes. There is a risk of this rain being impactful, however it will most likely be less so than of late. Driest conditions most likely in the south east where any bands of rain will be weaker than those seen elsewhere. Occasionally windy throughout with the strongest winds expected in the northwest. Temperatures are set to be around average overall with some milder interludes likely as weather moves in from the Atlantic. Some brief colder spells are still possible, especially in the south.

Sunday 14 Nov - Sunday 28 Nov

Temperatures set to be slightly below average overall throughout this period with an increased likelihood of wintry showers from the north and northwest at times. These showers are initially most likely over high ground with an increasing chance of them reaching lower levels later in the month. Less windy than the previous week overall, with stormy conditions much less likely than usual. Little evidence to suggest any prolonged widespread settled conditions as often areas of messy cloud, rain and showers will be around. Any clear spells that do occur give way to frost and fog as expected for the time of year. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 5 Nov - Sunday 14 Nov

An unsettled and changeable start to this period with typically autumnal conditions dominating the weather. Wettest and windiest conditions expected in the north and west over the weekend with bands of heavy rain and showers and a risk of gales. Drier interludes to follow these showers. There is a risk of this rain being impactful, however it will most likely be less so than of late. Driest conditions most likely in the southeast where any bands of rain will be weaker than those seen elsewhere. Occasionally windy throughout with the strongest winds expected in the northwest but becoming less windy by the end of the period. Temperatures will be around average with some milder interludes however, some brief colder spells are still possible, especially in the south.

Sunday 14 Nov - Sunday 28 Nov

Temperatures set to be slightly below average overall throughout this period with an increased likelihood of wintry showers from the north and northwest at times. These showers are initially most likely over high ground with an increasing chance of them reaching lower levels later in the month. Less windy than the previous week overall, with stormy conditions much less likely than usual. Little evidence to suggest any prolonged widespread settled conditions as often areas of messy cloud, rain and showers will be around. Any clear spells that do occur give way to frost and fog as expected for the time of year. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[swfc]

Today's update states low chance of wintry showers falling to low ground

[booferking]

52 minutes ago, swfc said:

Today's update states low chance of wintry showers falling to low ground

It states increasing chance

[swfc]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

It states increasing chance

Yes over high ground. Yesterday's forecast for the 14th to the 28th said increasing chance of wintry showers to low ground. Today the same forecast is low chance. Its updated earlier today on the MetO site

Edited November 1, 2021 by swfc

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 6 Nov - Monday 15 Nov

An unsettled and changeable start to this period with typically autumnal conditions dominating the weather. Wettest and windiest conditions expected in the west and northwest over the weekend with bands of heavy and perhaps prolonged rain and a risk of gales. There is a risk of this rain being impactful, however there will also be some drier interludes. Driest and brightest conditions most likely in the southeast where any bands of rain will be weaker than those seen elsewhere. Occasionally windy throughout with the strongest winds expected in the northwest but becoming less windy by the end of the period. Temperatures will be around or slightly above average however, some brief colder spells are still possible.

Tuesday 16 Nov - Tuesday 30 Nov

Temperatures set to be slightly below average overall throughout this period with an increased likelihood of wintry showers from the north and northwest at times. These showers are most likely over high ground with low risk of them reaching lower levels later in the month. Less windy than the previous week, with stormy conditions much less likely than usual. Little evidence to suggest any prolonged widespread settled conditions as often areas of cloud, rain and showers will be around. Any clear spells that do occur give way to frost and fog as expected for the time of year. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 7 Nov - Tuesday 16 Nov

Blustery showers are likely in the far north and northeast at the start of the period, but these quickly clearing. Otherwise, plenty of fine, dry weather with long spells of sunshine. Rain and thicker cloud will then steadily encroach from the west and northwest. Through the week beginning the 8th, areas of low pressure lying to the north or northwest of the UK will bring unsettled conditions predominantly affecting the north and west, with some heavy rain and strong winds followed by cooler, more showery interludes. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the southeast where rain bands will often be weak. Temperatures generally around average thorough this period, although brief cold spells possible.

Wednesday 17 Nov - Wednesday 1 Dec

Through this period, there is an increased chance of wintry showers from the north and northwest, initially over higher ground but also a low risk at lower levels later in the month. While there is little sign of prolonged, widespread settled weather, conditions are likely to be less stormy and windy. Where there are more settled spells, frost and fog are increasingly likely, with temperatures slightly colder than average. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/