Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Nov 2012 to Sunday 25 Nov 2012:

Rain across the northwest of the UK will slowly spread southeast through Friday and into Saturday, with the far south remaining dry until later on Saturday. Fairly cloudy conditions expected ahead of the rain, with some brighter spells possible. Temperatures continuing to be around normal for November. Mixed conditions likely thereafter, with cloudy periods giving spells of rain, heavy at times, particularly in the north and west. Also some brighter spells, with a few showers, mainly to the north and west where they may be wintry over hills. Southern and eastern parts staying reasonably dry with rain generally short lived. Generally becoming colder again during the overnight periods, and also through the day in the north and west, with the south and east expected to see nearer to normal temperatures.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

[Methuselah]

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Nov 2012 to Sunday 25 Nov 2012:

Rain across the northwest of the UK will slowly spread southeast through Friday and into Saturday, with the far south remaining dry until later on Saturday. Fairly cloudy conditions expected ahead of the rain, with some brighter spells possible. Temperatures continuing to be around normal for November. Mixed conditions likely thereafter, with cloudy periods giving spells of rain, heavy at times, particularly in the north and west. Also some brighter spells, with a few showers, mainly to the north and west where they may be wintry over hills. Southern and eastern parts staying reasonably dry with rain generally short lived. Generally becoming colder again during the overnight periods, and also through the day in the north and west, with the south and east expected to see nearer to normal temperatures.

http://www.metoffice...egionalForecast

So, for all those poor, deluded souls who read the Mail, Express or Star, that's 11-days' unremitting severe frosts, gales and blizzards...Yes it is, Corbyn said!

[Summer Sun]

The met office have decided to update the outlooks now its says it was updated at 11:59 but it most certainly wasn't

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Nov 2012 to Sunday 25 Nov 2012:

Rain across the northwest of the UK will slowly spread southeast through Friday and into Saturday, with the far south remaining dry until later on Saturday. Fairly cloudy conditions expected ahead of the rain, with some brighter spells possible. Temperatures continuing to be around normal for November. Mixed conditions likely thereafter, with cloudy periods giving spells of rain, heavy at times, particularly in the north and west. Also some brighter spells, with a few showers, mainly to the north and west where they may be wintry over hills. Southern and eastern parts staying reasonably dry with rain generally short lived. Generally becoming colder again during the overnight periods, and also through the day in the north and west, with the south and east expected to see nearer to normal temperatures.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 11 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited November 11, 2012 by Gavin.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Nov 2012 to Monday 26 Nov 2012:

Rain across the west of the UK will slowly spread east through the weekend. Clearer showery conditions following, reaching most parts by the end of Saturday, but may persist into Sunday across the far east. Heaviest and most frequent showers in the northwest. Temperatures close to average. Mixed conditions likely thereafter, with cloudy periods giving spells of rain, heavy at times, particularly in the west. Also some brighter spells, with a few showers, mainly to the north and west where they may be wintry over hills. Central and eastern parts seeing the least of the rainfall and perhaps the best of the sunshine, with a low probability of becoming drier and colder later with overnight frosts.

Updated: 1123 on Mon 12 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Nov 2012 to Tuesday 27 Nov 2012:

A chilly, mostly dry and frosty start to Sunday, but with scattered showers in the north and west giving a risk of a few icy stretches first thing. Remaining bright and chilly through the rest of the day with scattered showers continuing in the northwest, these occasionally wintry over Scottish mountains. A new weather system will arrive in the west later Sunday and during Monday, setting a trend for the rest of the period in the UK with unsettled and relatively mild, wet and windy conditions interspersed with colder, drier and brighter periods. Risk of gales and heavy rain is most likely in northern and western areas, and wintry showers still possible over northern hills during the colder periods. Chance of more settled conditions towards the end of the month.

Updated: 1140 on Tue 13 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 28 Nov 2012:

Wet and windy for the start of the working week with some heavy rain and gales in exposed areas. Also a risk of some transient snow across the hills of Scotland and Northern England initially. Conditions should remain unsettled for the rest of next week, with most areas experiencing periods of rain interspersed with drier spells. Eastern parts of the UK may start to see less in the way of rain as the week progresses, whilst the wettest and windiest weather is expected in the west. With these unsettled conditions, daytime temperatures should be near or above average, with often mild and frost-free nights. Probably remaining rather changeable during the week after next, though there is a chance of more settled conditions starting to develop towards the end of November.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 14 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2012 to Thursday 29 Nov 2012:

Much of this period will be generally unsettled with occasional rain, with this separated by brighter, breezier and more showery weather. Some of these showers are likely be on the heavy side, with some also wintry over northern hills. The heaviest rain is expected in the west and the strongest winds in the northwest, with gales likely in exposed areas at times. Meanwhile, the southeast should see the mildest conditions, but overall temperatures will be largely close average, probably trending downwards to give an increased risk of overnight frosts. Similarly unsettled conditions are most likely to see out the period, although there is a small but significant probability of drier but colder conditions developing later in the month.

Updated: 1123 on Thu 15 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2012 to Thursday 29 Nov 2012:

Much of this period will be generally unsettled with occasional rain, with this separated by brighter, breezier and more showery weather. Some of these showers are likely be on the heavy side, with some also wintry over northern hills. The heaviest rain is expected in the west and the strongest winds in the northwest, with gales likely in exposed areas at times. Meanwhile, the southeast should see the mildest conditions, but overall temperatures will be largely close average, probably trending downwards to give an increased risk of overnight frosts. Similarly unsettled conditions are most likely to see out the period, although there is a small but significant probability of drier but colder conditions developing later in the month.

Updated: 1123 on Thu 15 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

I like the small but significant element of the forecast very much :-)

[carinthian]

Hi,

Strange wording that. To my eyes, small means low probability and significate means high probability. However, I get the drift, a change of type is now on the cards with-in the reliable time scale.

C

[johnholmes]

I think if you chat to Ian F Paul he will suggest that there are two things there. It can be a small but sufficiently significant factor, I think he quoted something similar from the official guidance given by the senior man at Exeter a day or so ago?

good luck with the snow for your area. The Swiss seem confident enough with some of the uplift starting 8 December and all of it, snow conditions permitting of course, from 15 December!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Hi,

Strange wording that. To my eyes, small means low probability and significate means high probability. However, I get the drift, a change of type is now on the cards with-in the reliable time scale.

C

It could of course be defined as important; of consequence rather than indicative; suggestive who the hell knows lol

[carinthian]

I think if you chat to Ian F Paul he will suggest that there are two things there. It can be a small but sufficiently significant factor, I think he quoted something similar from the official guidance given by the senior man at Exeter a day or so ago?

good luck with the snow for your area. The Swiss seem confident enough with some of the uplift starting 8 December and all of it, snow conditions permitting of course, from 15 December!

I know our old boss George Marshall would not make much of that sort of wording in his brief, but that was a long time ago. Yes, a real worry here with all the base snow washed away. We will need a heavy and substained snowfall to get in action for the start of the season here on 1st December. Our met reports supplied by ZamG weather service in Vienna are still encouring for a change to colder conditions for the end of the month to become established. Today they talk of a rise in pressure to the NW of Europe and a development of cyclonic conditions over the Med in the 10 to 15 day term forecasts with the persistant trough to the west of the UK finally moving east ?. This would suggest widespread snowfall in the Alpine regions.

Keep fit and dont forget to keep thoses knees together !

Paul

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Nov 2012 to Friday 30 Nov 2012:

After a wet start to next week, relatively mild but unsettled conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the week as showers and periods of more persistent rain sweep across the UK. Western and southwestern parts will probably see the heaviest and most persistent rain and conditions will often be windy too, especially at first, when occasional gales may affect some exposed coasts and hills. Often quite mild next week with nights largely frost-free until the weekend temperatures are likely to start trending downwards to give an increased risk of overnight frost. Unsettled conditions are then thought most likely to persist through the last full week of November, though there is a small but significant probability of drier but colder conditions developing by the end of the month.

Updated: 1231 on Fri 16 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Nov 2012 to Saturday 1 Dec 2012:

Mostly unsettled for the rest of the week, and into the start of next weekend, with showers and occasional longer spells of rain affecting many parts of the UK, heaviest in the west. Perhaps the best chance of some drier interludes for parts of the east and southeast. Often windy, with the risk of gales in exposed western parts. Generally fairly mild. There is a trend for conditions to become drier for many through the second part of next weekend, with rain becoming largely restricted to the far north and west. Temperatures returning to nearer normal with the risk of overnight frosts. Towards the end of November, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder and drier than average conditions are favoured.

Updated: 1148 on Sat 17 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Nov 2012 to Sunday 2 Dec 2012:

Remaining unsettled as we head towards next weekend, with showers and occasional longer spells of rain affecting many parts of the UK, probably heaviest in the west. The best chance of some drier interludes towards the east. Often windy, with the risk of gales in exposed western parts. Generally fairly mild. There is a trend for conditions to become drier for many into next week, with rain becoming largely restricted to the far north and west. Temperatures returning to nearer normal or perhaps a little below, with the risk of overnight frosts. Towards the end of November and start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured, with an increased risk of frost and fog, and some wintry showers.

Updated: 1137 on Sun 18 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2012 to Monday 3 Dec 2012:

It will remain unsettled, with showers and occasional longer spells of rain affecting many parts of the UK, probably heaviest in the west. The best chance of drier interludes towards the east. Often windy, with the risk of gales in exposed western parts. Generally fairly mild, but with a chance of overnight frosts in clearer spells and showers perhaps wintry over northwestern hills. Conditions should become more settled and drier for many through next week. Temperatures nearer normal or a little below, with a risk of more widespread overnight frosts. Towards the end of November and start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured, with an increased risk of frost and fog, and some wintry showers.

Updated: 1125 on Mon 19 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Nov 2012 to Tuesday 4 Dec 2012:

Very unsettled at first, with showers and occasional longer spells of rain affecting many parts and turning heavy in places. Perhaps brighter in central areas during Monday. Often windy, with the risk of gales in exposed western parts. Generally fairly mild, but with a chance of overnight frosts in clearer spells and showers perhaps increasingly wintry over hills. Conditions gradually becoming drier and more settled during next week, although southeastern areas most prone to continuing, prolonged spells of rain. Temperatures nearer normal or a little below, with a risk of more widespread overnight frosts. Towards the start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured, with an increased risk of frost and fog, and some wintry showers.

Updated: 1159 on Tue 20 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 5 Dec 2012:

Very unsettled at first, with showers and occasional longer spells of rain affecting many parts and turning heavy in places. Perhaps brighter in central areas during Monday. Often windy, with the risk of gales in exposed western parts. Generally fairly mild, but with a chance of overnight frosts in clearer spells and showers perhaps increasingly wintry over hills. Conditions gradually becoming drier and more settled during next week, although southeastern areas most prone to continuing, prolonged spells of rain. Temperatures nearer normal or a little below, with a risk of more widespread overnight frosts. Towards the start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured, with an increased risk of frost and fog, and some wintry showers.

Updated: 1145 on Wed 21 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[shedhead]

MO still refusing to get drawn into the cold weather feeding frenzy, indeed their line of 'Towards the start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured' suggests they

remain unconvinced of a... a cold spell and b... anything other than a bog standard early Winter spell even if it does turn cold.

We've seen the MO keep their feet on the ground many, many times before when all around them heads were being lost left, right and center, so until they are firmly on board and using rather more 'positive language' I for one will remain very hopeful yet rather doubtful.

[Polar Maritime]

One thing is certain, the cold spell is just around the corner now. As they say "average to below average temps", The only thing they are unsure of is how long it will last for. They are very convinced of a change in the weather pattern to colder conditions.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

MO still refusing to get drawn into the cold weather feeding frenzy, indeed their line of 'Towards the start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured' suggests they

remain unconvinced of a... a cold spell and b... anything other than a bog standard early Winter spell even if it does turn cold.

We've seen the MO keep their feet on the ground many, many times before when all around them heads were being lost left, right and center, so until they are firmly on board and using rather more 'positive language' I for one will remain very hopeful yet rather doubtful.

They are a professional organisation so of course they are going to keep there feet on the ground as no-one is sure where the block is going to end up !!! Isn't there always a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to longe range forecasting.

Edited November 21, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[london-snow]

The meto will always urge caution and use terms such as ' Uncertainty ' until such pattern is nailed. See 2010 cold spell and there wording as a prime example.

Edited November 21, 2012 by london-snow

[shedhead]

One thing is certain, the cold spell is just around the corner now. As they say "average to below average temps", The only thing they are unsure of is how long it will last for. They are very convinced of a change in the weather pattern to colder conditions.

Are they PM? The following sentance is crytal clear and in my opinion still contains nothing other than caution and good sense - Towards the start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured' Frankly to suggest this line says they are very convinced of a change to colder conditions is both wrong and misleading, indeed it says pretty much the polar opposite.

[Polar Maritime]

MO still refusing to get drawn into the cold weather feeding frenzy, indeed their line of 'Towards the start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured' suggests they

remain unconvinced of a... a cold spell and b... anything other than a bog standard early Winter spell even if it does turn cold.

We've seen the MO keep their feet on the ground many, many times before when all around them heads were being lost left, right and center, so until they are firmly on board and using rather more 'positive language' I for one will remain very hopeful yet rather doubtful.

They are convinced of a cold spell starting at the weekend. But uncertain as to how long it will last...

I agree there is always uncertainty beyond a week.

And the Polar opposite would be mild.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[shedhead]

Well if that is how you want to read their latest update PM then fair enough, it's all down to personal interpretation I guess.