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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Hi gang ,i think todays update as taken place with exact wording  ,or am i totally wrong ,cheers gang 👍

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    20 minutes ago, legritter said:

    Hi gang ,i think todays update as taken place with exact wording  ,or am i totally wrong ,cheers gang 👍

    No, looks like you're correct 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

    I find it interesting that at time of writing the MO are still convinced about a cold, potentially snowy spell later in the month. This is despite a lot of the computer models hinting at very mild weather instead. They have been consistent about a cold end to February for a while now, despite uncertainties about the mid-term (5-10 days ahead).

    I wonder if the models are going to reverse and go for a colder outlook soon. It would be interesting as normally we would have a cold spell appearing in 10 days and most models agreeing, only for it to get downgraded and not happen nearer the time. This could be a reverse situation where a notably mild setup appears in 10 days time, only for it to not happen nearer the time, or get downgraded.

    Let's see if later the MO upgrade their longer range forecast. If they still stick with the cold, snowy end to February then it will be interesting to see how the models are in the next week or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Thursday 18 Feb - Saturday 27 Feb

    This period begins with temperatures much milder than recent, with temperatures returning to around or slightly above average for most, with some mild spells being seen in the south and west. There remains a small chance to return to wider colder conditions for the weekend, but the likelihood is low. The UK looks to be split broadly northwest to southeast in terms of the general weather types with the west and northwest more likely to see wet conditions with strong winds at times, and the east and south east more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these settled conditions we may see temperatures falling back to average or below, and with increased incidence of overnight frost and fog. Any snowfall most likely becoming restricted to the Scottish mountains.

    Saturday 27 Feb - Saturday 13 Mar

    Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures likely to return back to around, if not below, average with a greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
    Just now, Summer Sun said:

    Thursday 18 Feb - Saturday 27 Feb

    This period begins with temperatures much milder than recent, with temperatures returning to around or slightly above average for most, with some mild spells being seen in the south and west. There remains a small chance to return to wider colder conditions for the weekend, but the likelihood is low. The UK looks to be split broadly northwest to southeast in terms of the general weather types with the west and northwest more likely to see wet conditions with strong winds at times, and the east and south east more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these settled conditions we may see temperatures falling back to average or below, and with increased incidence of overnight frost and fog. Any snowfall most likely becoming restricted to the Scottish mountains.

    Saturday 27 Feb - Saturday 13 Mar

    Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures likely to return back to around, if not below, average with a greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    Yup winter over haha

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Thursday 18 Feb - Saturday 27 Feb

    This period begins with temperatures much milder than recent, with temperatures returning to around or slightly above average for most, with some mild spells being seen in the south and west. There remains a small chance to return to wider colder conditions for the weekend, but the likelihood is low. The UK looks to be split broadly northwest to southeast in terms of the general weather types with the west and northwest more likely to see wet conditions with strong winds at times, and the east and south east more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these settled conditions we may see temperatures falling back to average or below, and with increased incidence of overnight frost and fog. Any snowfall most likely becoming restricted to the Scottish mountains.

    Saturday 27 Feb - Saturday 13 Mar

    Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures likely to return back to around, if not below, average with a greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    Yes, a significant backtrack - I wonder what the Met Office were seeing?

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    26 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

    Yup winter over haha

    Don't count on it.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    More downgrades,no mention of snow showers coming in from the East again,expect the chance of any cold spell returning will be also removed.Once mild takes control in the UK thats normally cold chances gone for weeks or months.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    More downgrades,no mention of snow showers coming in from the East again,expect the chance of any cold spell returning will be also removed.Once mild takes control in the UK thats normally cold chances gone for weeks or months.

    Months!! Bloody hell mate thats a bit OTT...we've had our fair share of cold snaps this Winter..And if you read that update again the chances are still there!! Surely you can't take a 2 or 3 week forecast that literally!! Beyond 5 days is going some...those updates are changed more often than my other halfs moods.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

    They are back tracking slowly so no one notices 🤣🤣

    Edited by Frostbite1980
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    Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
    38 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

    They said snow for North Wales today... but there was no snow hahahah 

    Hahaha joke? It’s been snowing here in the Ceiriog Valley  fo four hours,  light snow, but steady and it has settled. Just stopped now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Months!! Bloody hell mate thats a bit OTT...we've had our fair share of cold snaps this Winter..And if you read that update again the chances are still there!! Surely you can't take a 2 or 3 week forecast that literally!! Beyond 5 days is going some...those updates are changed more often than my other halfs moods.

    I think their backtracking will continue over the next few days.  This February seems to be shaping up very similar to those of 2009 and 2012 and they both had very mild second halves and the Marches which followed were also mild, so I think realistically (not definitely obviously)  proper cold is off the menu until next winter now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    I think their backtracking will continue over the next few days.  This February seems to be shaping up very similar to those of 2009 and 2012 and they both had very mild second halves and the Marches which followed were also mild, so I think realistically (not definitely obviously)  proper cold is off the menu until next winter now.

    Neither me you or the met have a crystal ball don..and there's never any point in trying to make a prediction based on previous winter events..pattern matching is fraught with errors! 

    On a funnier note Don im confident we will get another bite at the cherry before we are done..remember this post don for future reference,perhaps save it so you can get back to me and say yes Matt you nailed it!! 🤣 seriously Don your a good poster but I feel you may be wrong with this one...we shall see....Have a fab weekend mate 👍 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    On a funnier note Don im confident we will get another bite at the cherry before we are done..remember this post don for future reference,perhaps save it so you can get back to me and say yes Matt you nailed it!! 🤣 seriously Don your a good poster but I feel you may be wrong with this one...we shall see....Have a fab weekend mate 👍 

    Thanks Matt, I enjoy your posts too and yes, I hope I'm (very) wrong on this!  I will certainly be the first to praise you if you are correct!  Have a great weekend also 👍 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    13 minutes ago, Don said:

    I think their backtracking will continue over the next few days.  This February seems to be shaping up very similar to those of 2009 and 2012 and they both had very mild second halves and the Marches which followed were also mild, so I think realistically (not definitely obviously)  proper cold is off the menu until next winter now.

    I've described this winter as very similar to winter 08-09 which also had a SSW in early January. Alas just like this winter it was episodic. It started colder than this winter, but this one also brought a cold first 10 days, much milder weather in the run up to Christmas, this winter the same, cold conditions last week Dec, first week Jan, ditto same as this year, a generally average second half some milder weather at times, same as this year, cold first half to Feb 09, difference this year the cold was shorter lived, then a very mild but wet second half, this Feb looks very mild second half but drier.. 

    Let's hope next winter follows on from winter 08-09 another 09-10 repeat when hopefully life is much closer to normal.. 

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    I've described this winter as very similar to winter 08-09 which also had a SSW in early January. Alas just like this winter it was episodic. It started colder than this winter, but this one also brought a cold first 10 days, much milder weather in the run up to Christmas, this winter the same, cold conditions last week Dec, first week Jan, ditto same as this year, a generally average second half some milder weather at times, same as this year, cold first half to Feb 09, difference this year the cold was shorter lived, then a very mild but wet second half, this Feb looks very mild second half but drier.. 

    Let's hope next winter follows on from winter 08-09 another 09-10 repeat when hopefully life is much closer to normal.. 

    Yes, I definitely see similarities with 08/09 now (was comparing to 85/86 only a week ago!).  However, the reason for my frustration is due to the current cold spell failing to deliver much in the way snow for many areas (unlike early February 09).  If I had seen substantial snow amounts this week, I would have been less bothered about a milder second half.

    However, hopefully like 08/09 this is a teaser winter and next year is properly cold and snowy, when like you say life is much closer to normal.  That might mean hot weather lovers have to make do with a mediocre/lacklustre summer this year though.....

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    I think someone forgot to refresh the computer screen at the met office

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, lassie23 said:

    I think someone forgot to refresh the computer screen at the met office

    Aye?

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Here is the March outlook, It will be cold and mild, sunny and cloudy, dry and damp, windy and calm. Oh and the days will be getting longer which they are very confident about lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    Here is the March outlook, It will be cold and mild, sunny and cloudy, dry and damp, windy and calm. Oh and the days will be getting longer which they are very confident about lol

    They haven't mentioned any snow! 😢

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    Just now, Don said:

    They haven't mentioned any snow! 😢

    Lol snow at easter

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Im awaiting the ..its more likely to snow in easter than xmas comments on the other thread...the met forecast of significant snow risk for the south reminds me of 2019 when every update from xmas to march hinted at an easterly until when temps hit the 20's they dropped it! Ok, bit of an exageration but they constantly followed the EC46 predictions of HLB which never happened.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Friday 19 Feb - Sunday 28 Feb

    Friday will likely be unsettled with strong southwesterly winds bringing heavy rain to many western areas, and the chance of some light rainfall and mild temperatures nearly nationwide. Over the weekend a pattern develops that puts the UK into a broad northwest to southeast split, with the northwest more likely to see rainfall and strong winds at times, and the east and southeast more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these more settled conditions, we may see temperatures falling back to average, this especially so by night with an increased incidence of frost and fog. A return to widespread frosts but also an increased but very uncertain chance of snow are possible particularly in the North and East. Any snowfall most likely restricted to the Scottish mountains.

    Sunday 28 Feb - Sunday 14 Mar

    Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures are likely to return back to around, if not below-average with a slightly greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March, there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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