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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    milder over southwestern then western areas for a time

    Sounds to me it's only going to get slightly milder in the far southwest and a strong high near the UK shortly after

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Significant upgrade in my books. They've ditched the idea of milder air making any significant inroads for the foreseeable future with the cold block holding sway well into the end of the month.

    Any incursions of milder air in the W / SW will only serve to increase the chances of further snow. Great stuff for all thos of us who love prolonged cold and snow ! ūüĎć

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Imagine being one of those responsible for these outlooks.

    Friday 5th, afternoon: For days you've had it favouring the cold weather putting up a fight but the models haven't been adjusting the Atlantic trough much - not enough for the cold route to unfold. So, you decide you'd better adjust the outlook accordingly.

    Evening: The very next set of model runs make a significant move toward sustaining the very cold weather. You think to yourself 'are you serious?!'

    Saturday 6th, early morning: ECM continues the trend, GEM runs with it, and UKMO makes a small but not insignificant move in that direction. Only the GFS 00z supports the revised outlook issued yesterday.

    Saturday 6th, afternoon: With GFS having reverted to be even more 'with the trend' than ECM for next weekend, you begrudgingly begin the process of reverting the outlook to what it was to begin with. At least if it pans out that way, you can try pointing to that and brushing the wobble under the rug...!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    31 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Imagine being one of those responsible for these outlooks.

    Friday 5th, afternoon: For days you've had it favouring the cold weather putting up a fight but the models haven't been adjusting the Atlantic trough much - not enough for the cold route to unfold. So, you decide you'd better adjust the outlook accordingly.

    Evening: The very next set of model runs make a significant move toward sustaining the very cold weather. You think to yourself 'are you serious?!'

    Saturday 6th, early morning: ECM continues the trend, GEM runs with it, and UKMO makes a small but not insignificant move in that direction. Only the GFS 00z supports the revised outlook issued yesterday.

    Saturday 6th, afternoon: With GFS having reverted to be even more 'with the trend' than ECM for next weekend, you begrudgingly begin the process of reverting the outlook to what it was to begin with. At least if it pans out that way, you can try pointing to that and brushing the wobble under the rug...!

    LOL ....was thinking the same myself....if they had held firm for one more day, they would have been getting the gold star award with back slaps all round, assuming their models are correct of course...they have still been very good this winter in fairness and not too far off the mark on most occasions especially with very unusual and conflicting background signals SSW etc ....not living in UK but follow their updates daily which gives a broad idea of what weather patterns to expect in southern Ireland...  

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Definitely a swing back to a colder outlook today.  As others have said, a difficult task at the moment forecasting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire

    BBC week ahead forecast seems to be favouring a return to mild air by next weekend. Referring to 7 in London.

    Doesn't look very likely when looking at the latest model data.

    Louise was doing her best to wish away the cold - lost track of how many times she referred to "disappointing" temperatures this week!

    Edited by BurwellWeatherWatch
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Friday 12 Feb - Sunday 21 Feb

    A cold start to the period with strong easterly winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over northeastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south, although there is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England on Thursday. As the period progresses, it will be remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western and northern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and southeast. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but possibly becoming increasingly settled by the end of the period.

    Sunday 21 Feb - Sunday 7 Mar

    After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
    4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Briefly milder air into the far west/south west before a quick return to colder conditions. Not a breakdown for the vast majority of the U.K.

    Meto update mentions rain showers across western UK and Scotland next weekend, so could be quite a widespread warm up by the sound of things. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    3 minutes ago, JimBob said:

    Meto update mentions rain showers across western UK and Scotland next weekend, so could be quite a widespread warm up by the sound of things. 

    ‚Äėalthough¬†there is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England on Thursday. As the period progresses, it will be remaining cold or very cold with¬†brisk winds but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time‚Äô.¬†
     

    That’s beyond Thursday not on Thursday, and it’s just briefly milder for south western and then western areas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Saturday 13 Feb - Monday 22 Feb

    It will remain cold or very cold with brisk winds during the start of this period but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time, but with a risk of gales at times here. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible across western and southern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and north. However with a continued risk of snow showers possible in central and northern areas. Further into this period, snow and attendant wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas but not confined to. Overall, conditions look to remain cold but some milder interludes are possible with accompanied unsettled conditions moving in from the west or the southwest.

    Tuesday 23 Feb - Tuesday 9 Mar

    After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Saturday 13 Feb - Monday 22 Feb

    It will remain cold or very cold with brisk winds during the start of this period but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time, but with a risk of gales at times here. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible across western and southern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and north. However with a continued risk of snow showers possible in central and northern areas. Further into this period, snow and attendant wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas but not confined to. Overall, conditions look to remain cold but some milder interludes are possible with accompanied unsettled conditions moving in from the west or the southwest.

    Tuesday 23 Feb - Tuesday 9 Mar

    After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    Yes a better update for the south and west with the mention of potentially heavy snow for southern and western areas.  always high risk with stalling fronts but one I,m happy to accept.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    BBC week ahead forecast this evening looking into next week very much in line with the latest  meto update and tonights ecm.

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain

    Really hope I’m wrong but regen the mettoffice be backtracking tomorrow in there update getting board this dry cold want some snow on the south 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Sunday 14 Feb - Tuesday 23 Feb

    It will remain cold or very cold with strong winds on Sunday but potentially turning milder over western areas. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible, whilst staying mostly dry and bright in central and southeastern areas. Further into this period, snow and wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas, especially over higher ground but not confined to. Although confidence weakens later in the period, the best of any sunshine looks to be in eastern and northeastern areas, with unsettled conditions mainly towards the west. Strong winds are likely throughout with the risk of coastal gales and temperatures overall remaining cold, with mild interludes in the west.

    Wednesday 24 Feb - Wednesday 10 Mar

    After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Eastern areas are also likely to see some further snow showers, with the best of any dry bright and sunny weather in the north and northwest.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    Thanks, Feb,

    I thought John was a bit harsh then, it is model related talk, as you have the UK's leading agency, going against nearly every supercomputer MODEL

     

    I was just going to say the met office still going against the models. Good stuff because I know which one I trust more!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    That latest update is a lot better & hopeful (for south western areas) than what I thought it would be.

    It could be that they are just waiting another 24 hours or so to be more sure, but on the other hand, they could have further data that shows a less progressive outlook over the weekend.

    Either way, whilst nothing exceptional, it still keeps my area very much in with some interest at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    @Battleground Snow @Purga Now it has updated - pretty much as you were.

    Yes Feb - I just dared to mention it in the MO thread! Probable exile to the Gulag for me LOL ! ūü§™

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    15 minutes ago, AWD said:

    That latest update is a lot better & hopeful (for south western areas) than what I thought it would be.

    It could be that they are just waiting another 24 hours or so to be more sure, but on the other hand, they could have further data that shows a less progressive outlook over the weekend.

    Either way, whilst nothing exceptional, it still keeps my area very much in with some interest at least.

    Yes, could have been a lot worse.  I too think they could be holding out a bit longer before making a more definitive call.  We shall see.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    I expect a further downwelling Wave so maybe next week is just an interlude ....Marco tweeted that less cold is likely coming next week 

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Well if meto stick to their guns today re cold persistent in n and e then cold again everywhere it could get interesting especially after just viewing the gfs 6z.

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