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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Tuesday 9 Feb - Thursday 18 Feb

    A cold start to the period with significant wind-chill, especially in eastern areas. Snow showers are likely across eastern Scotland, England, and perhaps eastern Northern Ireland, whilst plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further west. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds. The best of any sunshine will be in the west. Snow showers and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect eastern UK at times, especially at first, whilst the risk of organised rain and snow pushing into the south-west and across southern UK will slowly increase.

    Thursday 18 Feb - Thursday 4 Mar

    Very low confidence for the middle of the month as there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. This produces a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas most of February, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

    A change in both forecasts but not necessarily for the worse with the risk of attempted snowy breakdowns!

    This is the my favorite part of the forecast;

    There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday.

    👍

    Edited by Don
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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Tuesday 9 Feb - Thursday 18 Feb

    A cold start to the period with significant wind-chill, especially in eastern areas. Snow showers are likely across eastern Scotland, England, and perhaps eastern Northern Ireland, whilst plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further west. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds. The best of any sunshine will be in the west. Snow showers and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect eastern UK at times, especially at first, whilst the risk of organised rain and snow pushing into the south-west and across southern UK will slowly increase.

    Thursday 18 Feb - Thursday 4 Mar

    Very low confidence for the middle of the month as there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. This produces a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas most of February, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

    That is some update......MET Office not seeing much inroads of fronts from Atlantic next week, maybe later in the period....Basically cold out to early March with snow risk continuing with chance of miler interludes.....sounds good

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    met office said the s word😮

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Yes that is a very good update ,fax charts will be a good tool soon ,will ecm go big Boom tonight, and gfs trend a little more south ,cheers. 

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Very good, update they don't see the Atlantic breaking through for a while.

    Interesting to see significant snowfall possible Tuesday in there, I guess it's off the low marked up, looks to head way south of the UK at the moment tho.

    gfsnh-0-120 (7)~2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire

    yes good update from the Met Office. I don't quite get this bit:

     

    Quote

     

    Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

    Remaining unsettled with areas of rain, sleet and snow. Mild in the south initially, this being replaced by colder weather with snow showers in the east by Monday.

     

     

    The models are clearly showing significant snow possibilities for Sunday, if not Saturday - and indeed the Met Office video forecast is showing widespread snow graphics on the Sunday - so much more than a vague possibility. So I'm not sure why Sunday barely gets a mention in the text forecast?

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Its quite cool to watch the UKMO, because the front obviously gets quite the undercut on the UKMO, this is the exact same time as the charts I posted of the UKMO earlier:

    us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2021020412_66_4855_308.thumb.png.c937762addecd60be23e22000f10111b.png

    Of course as you say once the front clears even colder upper temperatures flood across the region, which does make sense as to why they'd place it further south I suppose.

    However whats odd about the fax charts is there is still a reasonable amount of precipitation along the frontal boundary and its still sitting broadly in the same location as it was, heres 18z:

    us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2021020412_78_4855_83.thumb.png.d3959fdf16b16fff284b4ba9a488d204.png

    I'm not really sure the frontal shield would be that far north if the front really as far SE as the fax chart is showing?

    My only ideas is it could  be that we've actually got a load of embedded north sea convection in that 18z chart above and the frontal boundary is indeed further south which would make sense if the front is as far south as that fax chart suggests.

    Then again I'm sure they've got the details to make a better call old armchair forecaster me haha!

    MEtO have an almost exact match on their latest forecast just released. And you are quite right, this does not correlate with the fax charts. All of the precip out at sea will eventually move in a general WSW direction. 

    Screenshot 2021-02-04 at 19.53.00.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Wednesday 10 Feb - Friday 19 Feb

    A cold start to the period with strong eastern winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over north eastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south. There is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England, most likely on Wednesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds, but turning milder over southern and southwestern areas. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the north and the east. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend.

    Friday 19 Feb - Friday 5 Mar

    After a milder and wetter interlude, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas most of February, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Sounds like a strange update. We’re going to gradually go from deeply cold to milder without the change bringing any snowfall, just rain in the west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Sounds like a strange update. We’re going to gradually go from deeply cold to milder without the change bringing any snowfall, just rain in the west.

    Basically like the Euro0z. One or two attempts that mostly fail away from the south followed by south westeries.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Basically like the Euro0z. One or two attempts that mostly fail away from the south followed by south westeries.

    Sounds like the most boring transition possible 😐

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    If it plays out like that, worst possible transition. Let's hope the mild blip is short like gfs showed earlier😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Sounds like the most boring transition possible 😐

    Fairly snowy probably for us, just relatively quick. A failed breakdown bringing snow followed by a second front bringing rain fairly quickly. Kind of like early this week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Sounds like the most boring transition possible 😐

    Indicates it fizzling out over the southwest and not really getting mild further north.

    We needed it to slide under the block, not get stuck out west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    That's a significant downgrade from yesterday's forecast, especially for southern and western areas!  North/south divide winter continues, disappointing......

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    44 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Wednesday 10 Feb - Friday 19 Feb

    Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend.

    Do they mean weekend 19th or 12th? 

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland

    This update just shows there in house model is not all its cracked up to be, they have not led way rather been dragged over to the out look of other models regarding a breakdown. Also, this update  to me indicates further brief cold periods before milder weather returns. So despite the mjo supposedly being in a favourable phase for a hlb it does not like we will get a high latitude block that could give us a prolonged cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

    This update just shows there in house model is not all its cracked up to be, they have not led way rather been dragged over to the out look of other models regarding a breakdown. Also, this update  to me indicates further brief cold periods before milder weather returns. So despite the mjo supposedly being in a favourable phase for a hlb it does not like we will get a high latitude block that could give us a prolonged cold spell.

    I posted in the mod thread that once the jet stream gains strength, it could be difficult for HLB blocking to form again?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

    This update just shows there in house model is not all its cracked up to be, they have not led way rather been dragged over to the out look of other models regarding a breakdown. Also, this update  to me indicates further brief cold periods before milder weather returns. So despite the mjo supposedly being in a favourable phase for a hlb it does not like we will get a high latitude block that could give us a prolonged cold spell.

    You say it's not all it's  cracked up to be but then base the future on it? It does look as though all of the models are going mild now but for how long...?

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    Just now, Don said:

    I posted in the mod thread that once the jet stream gains strength, it could be difficult for HLB blocking to form again?  

    Yes i saw that. It seems there is always something that will go wrong. First it was the Russian high in earlier in the winter;then it was the mjo staying  in phase 3, and now its the deep cold over North America scuppering a HLB. It's sod's law for us!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

    Yes i saw that. It seems there is always something that will go wrong. First it was the Russian high in earlier in the winter;then it was the mjo staying  in phase 3, and now its the deep cold over North America scuppering a HLB. It's sod's law for us!

    I just hope the models don’t start shortening the cold spell bringing in the Atlantic earlier!

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    2 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

    You say it's not all it's  cracked up to be but then base the future on it? It does look as though all of the models are going mild now but for how long...?

    Hopefully not for long, but i think it will be another brief cold spell.

    I was sceptical of its previous update, i stated i thought we would have a brief cold spell before the Atlantic returned. It just seems to be the pattern we are in this winter, in that regard their updates having been fairly accurate up till the last one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    It seems blocking to the ne will remain a factor and they leave open the chance of further cold. As for any breakdown that may yet be limited to areas further south and west. 

    A lot of uncertainty on detail remains on that is how I read it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    4 minutes ago, Don said:

    I just hope the models don’t start shortening the cold spell bringing in the Atlantic earlier!

    Let's hope not! I  am hoping for a snowy breakdown, so i hope the ECM is correct and upgrades further over the next couple of days!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Thursday 11 Feb - Saturday 20 Feb

    A cold start to the period with strong easterly winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over northeastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south, although there is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England on Thursday. As the period progresses, it will be remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western and northern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and southeast. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but possibly becoming increasingly settled by the end of the period.

    Saturday 20 Feb - Saturday 6 Mar

    After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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