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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

    Indeed that’s no downgrade. But if the rest follow the 💩ECM op tonight then we can shout downgrade 🙂

    Didn't see the ECM this morning but sounds like it is sticking to its guns?  METO sounds like it was a decent run, though?

    Edited by Don
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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    I wonder if the Met realise how much every word in their forecasts are disected here. Its probably written by the cleaner! 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Berkshire
  • Location: Berkshire

    UK long range weather forecast

    Saturday 6 Feb - Monday 15 Feb

    Remaining unsettled for much of the UK on Saturday with showers and longer spells of precipitation, wintry in places, especially in northern areas with a risk of heavy snowfall. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, which will introduce cold and dry weather across the UK, with widespread overnight frosts, though wintry showers could still feed in from the east coast at times. It will likely feel cold, or rather cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Icy stretches along with other disruptive wintry hazards, remain a possibility for all areas. There also remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times, along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Mon 1 Feb 2021

    Monday 15 Feb - Monday 1 Mar

    Confidence is low for mid-February onwards however similar conditions look most likely with high pressure remaining to the north of the UK, bringing overall colder than average conditions and below average precipitation amounts. Throughout this period the risk of wintry hazards continues to be greater than normal with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in eastern areas. There remains the possibility of less cold interludes occurring from the west and southwest, bringing wetter and milder conditions. In such instances, at the boundary between cold and mild air masses, there remains the risk of disruptive snowfall.

    Edited by Bermuda High
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    I know its pedantic, but how can if feel 'rather cold' in a brisk easterly wind....surely it would FEEL bloody freezing!?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Still no mention of snow anymore from previous updates of snow showers   in first part of update,just wintry showers then this stupid new term of wintry hazards.Well that means no really cold uppers then if its just wintry showers off the East coast.

    Useless ,

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    What do they mean Throughout this period the risk of wintry hazards continues to be greater than normal ///////////is it going snow or not.

    Edited by Scandinavian High.
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Latest MetO week ahead:👍

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    6 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    A fantastic update from the Met Office as we head towards the 12z runs.👍❄️ 

    Link to the full forecast: https://youtu.be/56IWx1I4odg

    13674D1E-98A7-4341-8B1F-07CF1F132980.thumb.png.185b87024f4a47447b8099aaf0ca0abb.pngD65A688B-857D-49BB-9980-9538384EE661.thumb.png.2de9bba9511a2f2122ffbbe1f40afd0c.png

     

    What a comprehensive and useful forecast !

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    17 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    A fantastic update from the Met Office as we head towards the 12z runs.👍❄️ 

    Link to the full forecast: https://youtu.be/56IWx1I4odg

    13674D1E-98A7-4341-8B1F-07CF1F132980.thumb.png.185b87024f4a47447b8099aaf0ca0abb.pngD65A688B-857D-49BB-9980-9538384EE661.thumb.png.2de9bba9511a2f2122ffbbe1f40afd0c.png

     

    I think they have nailed there colours to there mast! 
    good comprehensive forecast! 
    good bit at the end,” keep tuned for updates”!

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland

    It seems to me they are not seeing a prolonged snowy spell happening through  out the UK and Ireland.  Brief, perhaps potent cold spells for us all, before milder air wins out in the south and west. Hopefully it will be a big improvement on last month for areas that have missed out thus far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.

    I don't think I can remember ever seeing a longer-range forecast from the Met Office which hasn't started with the words "confidence is low for this period", or very similar!  The BBC's wording has slipped badly too over recent years, to the point that it's unusual not to see typos or downright errors every day.  A niggle for me is the expression "colder temperatures" - no, it's either 'lower temperatures' or 'colder'.

    Regarding the snow chance, I'd be happy with a simple frosty spell as a second best.  We need some proper seasonality back for the garden!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
    48 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    A fantastic update from the Met Office as we head towards the 12z runs.👍❄️ 

    Link to the full forecast: https://youtu.be/56IWx1I4odg

    13674D1E-98A7-4341-8B1F-07CF1F132980.thumb.png.185b87024f4a47447b8099aaf0ca0abb.pngD65A688B-857D-49BB-9980-9538384EE661.thumb.png.2de9bba9511a2f2122ffbbe1f40afd0c.png

     

    Thanks for posting, very informative. If it wasn't for COVID I would be driving up to North East Scotland, looks like they'll be having outrageous amounts of snow! 🤯 I just hope that once the cold air filters down over the country and to us snow starved in the South the precipitation doesn't disappear! After the amount of rain we have had to endure this winter that really would be a severe kick in the you know whats! 🙈🤪🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    21 hours ago, Bricriu said:

    It seems to me they are not seeing a prolonged snowy spell happening through  out the UK and Ireland.  Brief, perhaps potent cold spells for us all, before milder air wins out in the south and west. Hopefully it will be a big improvement on last month for areas that have missed out thus far.

    Brief? The update is pretty clear (always accepting the "low confidence" caveat) that high pressure is set to hold sway to the north. That means extended cold - and the "brief" adjective would apply to anything mild. Bear in mind also that we are currently moving away from any trigger to SSW style action, and that makes theses longer terms Glosea inspired forecasts more reliable in my book. With HP set to sit to our north through the month I think it unlikely we will see any further strat action this season. The fun time there was in January and now we are reaping some of the benefits.

    If we get downwelling response to the vortex recovery look to the block holding on but sliding airmasses from the north west. This is alluded to in the update. And that means snow alongside potential for brief mild sectors.

    Far from the downbeat conclusion you have applied to the update I would suggest it is one of the best style met office 4 week predictors that we have seen over the years. They got the end of the 2018 BFTE wrong as the mild won through faster than expected - but that was a totally different and mind bending context. This one is more straightforward, and the modelling will be more accurate. If this update doesn't get your cold juices flowing then nothing will.

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    Posted
  • Location: Berkshire
  • Location: Berkshire

    Sunday 7 Feb - Tuesday 16 Feb

    Rather cloudy and cold across the UK on Sunday with wintry showers over eastern parts. An area of high pressure then looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. There is a chance of conditions being dry at times with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

    Tuesday 16 Feb - Tuesday 2 Mar

    Confidence is low for this period from mid-February onwards, but conditions could turn cold and dry towards the end of the month. Less cold and milder interludes are still a possibility due to weather systems arriving from the Atlantic. These systems could bring a risk of disruptive snowfall over the boundary between mild and cold air. Disruptive wintry hazards continue to be a greater than normal threat during this period, and snowfall is a possibility for all areas, but is most likely over eastern parts of the country. Precipitation amounts are generally likely to be lower than average.

     

    The Met boys are not for turning.....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, Bermuda High said:

    Sunday 7 Feb - Tuesday 16 Feb

    Rather cloudy and cold across the UK on Sunday with wintry showers over eastern parts. An area of high pressure then looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. There is a chance of conditions being dry at times with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

    Tuesday 16 Feb - Tuesday 2 Mar

    Confidence is low for this period from mid-February onwards, but conditions could turn cold and dry towards the end of the month. Less cold and milder interludes are still a possibility due to weather systems arriving from the Atlantic. These systems could bring a risk of disruptive snowfall over the boundary between mild and cold air. Disruptive wintry hazards continue to be a greater than normal threat during this period, and snowfall is a possibility for all areas, but is most likely over eastern parts of the country. Precipitation amounts are generally likely to be lower than average.

     

    The Met boys are not for turning.....

     

    That's the 04:00 update. The "16:00" update usually arrives at around 3pm

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    Posted
  • Location: Berkshire
  • Location: Berkshire
    1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

    That's the 04:00 update. The "16:00" update usually arrives at around 3pm

    its definatley todays, browse further up and see my post yesterdays, the dates and text are different

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, Bermuda High said:

    its definatley todays, browse further up and see my post yesterdays, the dates and text are different

    I agree , they have put " very cold " back in 

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    They change the wording first then add the 16 00 after. Its definitely the latest.

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Very good update ,must admit i was getting confused a bit ,although thats down to age plus too many fags over time .hope we can all relax a bit now ,i am expecting more snow sat /sun as the low sinks south ,not big amounts but Snow settling, back to dreaming now gang cheers ,Legritter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    18 minutes ago, Bermuda High said:

    Sunday 7 Feb - Tuesday 16 Feb

    Rather cloudy and cold across the UK on Sunday with wintry showers over eastern parts. An area of high pressure then looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. There is a chance of conditions being dry at times with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

    Tuesday 16 Feb - Tuesday 2 Mar

    Confidence is low for this period from mid-February onwards, but conditions could turn cold and dry towards the end of the month. Less cold and milder interludes are still a possibility due to weather systems arriving from the Atlantic. These systems could bring a risk of disruptive snowfall over the boundary between mild and cold air. Disruptive wintry hazards continue to be a greater than normal threat during this period, and snowfall is a possibility for all areas, but is most likely over eastern parts of the country. Precipitation amounts are generally likely to be lower than average.

     

    The Met boys are not for turning.....

     

    That's a great update.  If anything they are not going with end of this mornings ECM where it looked like a west based based NAO was about to come into play for the south at least. 

    Nice update. Accepted 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Helen Willets seems to be everywhere at the moment,always a good sign.👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    21 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    That's the 04:00 update. The "16:00" update usually arrives at around 3pm

    Ive mentioned this a few times, forget the times its just confusing...the best way to check if its updated is by looking at the days on the extended, it ties in with whatever day it is at the time, so, todays will be Tuesday to Tuesday, tomorrow Wednesday to Wednesday etc...

     

    Anyway, definately not backing the GFS of yesterday thats for sure, maybe a little more promise for the south west also, so good from MBY point of view.

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