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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    19 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    I particularly like the bit about the south and west seeing the most of any organised rain and snow.

    That has stalling and retreating fronts written all over it.

    I started to get the old Feb 78 tingle when I read that.

    Lets hope they stand firm with this forecast and not start downgrading!

    Edited by Don
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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: Berkshire
  • Location: Berkshire

    UK long range weather forecast

    Wednesday 3 Feb - Friday 12 Feb

    Wintry precipitation is likely to persist over northern areas on Wednesday, showers in the far southwest, elsewhere rather cloudy with plenty of dry weather. Mild at first in the south; though high pressure building up over the north of the UK during this period is likely to bring easterly winds, cold temperatures, and coastal snow showers. A pattern of wintry showers persisting across the far north, elsewhere seeing mostly fine weather, widespread frosts, fog, and icy patches. Eastern parts seeing the most hazardous conditions, with further snow showers likely. The south and west will see the most of any organised rain and snow, but frontal systems are generally not expected to progress across the country.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sat 30 Jan 2021

    Friday 12 Feb - Friday 26 Feb

    High pressure to the north looks set to remain for at least the beginning of this period, before slowly declining, although confidence at this range is low. Mid February will continue to see cold, dry, and wintry weather, but towards the end of the month more unsettled weather may encroach from the Atlantic. These may bring rain and snow at times to the west and southwest. There is a continued risk of significant snowfall events on the boundary between colder and milder airmasses, with snow possible in many areas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Thats yesterdays....todays update here:

     

    Thursday 4 Feb -Saturday 13 Feb

    Low pressure dominant over the UK at first, bringing outbreaks of rain and snow over northern areas on Thursday with snow perhaps to lower levels. Further south milder and brighter with sunny spells and showers. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, introducing cold and dry weather across the UK with the chance of wintry showers along eastern coastal areas. Feeling cold, potentially very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds with widespread overnight frosts and the risk of icy stretches and wintry hazards. There remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

    Saturday 13 Feb -Saturday 27 Feb

    Confidence is low for mid-February onwards however similar conditions look most likely with high pressure remaining to the north of the UK bringing overall colder than average conditions and below average precipitation amounts. Through this period the risk of wintry hazards continues to be greater than normal with snowfall most likely in eastern areas. There remains the possibility of less cold interludes occurring from the west and southwest bringing wetter and milder conditions. In such instances, at the boundary between cold and mild air masses there remains the risk of disruptive snowfall.

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    1 hour ago, KTtom said:

    Thats yesterdays....todays update here:

     

    Thursday 4 Feb -Saturday 13 Feb

    Low pressure dominant over the UK at first, bringing outbreaks of rain and snow over northern areas on Thursday with snow perhaps to lower levels. Further south milder and brighter with sunny spells and showers. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, introducing cold and dry weather across the UK with the chance of wintry showers along eastern coastal areas. Feeling cold, potentially very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds with widespread overnight frosts and the risk of icy stretches and wintry hazards. There remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

    Saturday 13 Feb -Saturday 27 Feb

    Confidence is low for mid-February onwards however similar conditions look most likely with high pressure remaining to the north of the UK bringing overall colder than average conditions and below average precipitation amounts. Through this period the risk of wintry hazards continues to be greater than normal with snowfall most likely in eastern areas. There remains the possibility of less cold interludes occurring from the west and southwest bringing wetter and milder conditions. In such instances, at the boundary between cold and mild air masses there remains the risk of disruptive snowfall.

    That's an upgrade in my books ! Suggests a good chance of frontal 'battleground' snow chances for the snow starved south.

    It also suggest longevity of the cold spell. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    1 minute ago, Purga said:

    That's an upgrade in my books ! Suggests a good chance of frontal 'battleground' snow cahnces for the snow starved south.

    It also suggest longevity of the cold spell. 👍

    Quite so Purga. I,d happily take that for us here in the south and south west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex

    Seems to be a bit more emphasis on cold and dry today. All variations on a cold theme though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Purga said:

    That's an upgrade in my books ! Suggests a good chance of frontal 'battleground' snow chances for the snow starved south.

    It also suggest longevity of the cold spell. 👍

    I don't know, I saw it as a slight downgrade on yesterday, albeit still good.  However, they need to stay firm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin

    Patience is a virtue, Upgrade on yesterday where I see it. Interesting what the ECM will have in store for us this evening and subsequence days

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    Posted
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex

    Don't want to delay to long. Down south the sun starts to get some strength from mid Feb. That's not to say it can't get cold and snow of course, just that as soon as the sun comes out it's drip, drip, drip.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    On the MET site it always states that the forecast is updated at 04.00, never 04.30 etc always 04.00. However, the text doesn't update until the mid afternoon. Anyone know why this is? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Its updated, no change from what i can see from yesterdays.

    Friday 5 Feb - Sunday 14 Feb

    Low pressure dominant over the UK at first bringing showers and perhaps spells of rain and snow over northern areas on Friday, with a chance of snow to lower levels. Further south milder and cloudy with showers. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, introducing cold and dry weather across the UK with the chance of wintry showers along eastern coastal areas. Feeling cold especially in brisk easterly winds with widespread overnight frosts and the risk of icy stretches and wintry hazards. There remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

    Updated: 04:00 

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: Berkshire
  • Location: Berkshire
    18 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Its updated, no change from what i can see from yesterdays.

    Friday 5 Feb - Sunday 14 Feb

    Low pressure dominant over the UK at first bringing showers and perhaps spells of rain and snow over northern areas on Friday, with a chance of snow to lower levels. Further south milder and cloudy with showers. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, introducing cold and dry weather across the UK with the chance of wintry showers along eastern coastal areas. Feeling cold especially in brisk easterly winds with widespread overnight frosts and the risk of icy stretches and wintry hazards. There remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

    Updated: 04:00 

    That's a downgrade, very cold gone and much drier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    24 minutes ago, Bermuda High said:

    That's a downgrade, very cold gone and much drier.

    It's virtually identical , yes a couple of word changes but its nit picking to say its a downgrade for sure 

    Edited by MJB
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    20 minutes ago, Bermuda High said:

    That's a downgrade, very cold gone and much drier.

    They will say dry, but as long as we get an E'ly, there will be a lot of convective showers

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Friday 5 Feb - Sunday 14 Feb

    Low pressure dominant over the UK at first bringing showers and perhaps spells of rain and snow over northern areas on Friday, with a chance of snow to lower levels. Further south milder and cloudy with showers. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, introducing cold and dry weather across the UK with the chance of wintry showers along eastern coastal areas. Feeling cold especially in brisk easterly winds with widespread overnight frosts and the risk of icy stretches and wintry hazards. There remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

    Sunday 14 Feb - Sunday 28 Feb

    Confidence is low for mid-February onwards however similar conditions look most likely with high pressure remaining to the north of the UK bringing overall colder than average conditions and below average precipitation amounts. Through this period the risk of wintry hazards continues to be greater than normal with snowfall most likely in eastern areas. There remains the possibility of less cold interludes occurring from the west and southwest bringing wetter and milder conditions. In such instances, at the boundary between cold and mild air masses there remains the risk of disruptive snowfall.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Downgrade or upgrade they certainly have not gone with EC det!!

    This evenings 12zs will dictate if we see a real flip , because if EC is right then you  will what downgrade is!

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Encouraged by that update .

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Downgrade or upgrade they certainly have not gone with EC det!!

    This evenings 12zs will dictate if we see a real flip , because if EC is right then you  will what downgrade is!

    Indeed that’s no downgrade. But if the rest follow the 💩ECM op tonight then we can shout downgrade 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    36 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    They will say dry, but as long as we get an E'ly, there will be a lot of convective showers

    That rather depends on flow direction and pressure. Feb 12 notably produced a very cold but bar 2 attacking fronts, a dry easterly because pressure was high and the flow was often more se than ene despite a big high over Scandinavia.

    Once pressure gets to 1025mb you need stonking uppers to generate instability.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Still referencing that possible incursion into the northwest 

    that says scandi ridge rather than Icelandic and possible mid lat if it sinks a bit with the coldest feed dropping south 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    how is that a downgrade exactly.

    I swear some posters are just trolling for the sake of it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Downgrade or upgrade they certainly have not gone with EC det!!

    This evenings 12zs will dictate if we see a real flip , because if EC is right then you  will what downgrade is!

    There is virtually no difference from yesterday's update apart from dropping 'feeling cold or very cold', so I would not say it's a downgrade.

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