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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    They probably reflect the Euro ensembles so if they are divided the Met will be.

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    Saturday 16 Jan - Monday 25 Jan

    Unsettled conditions are looking to transfer across from the Atlantic over the weekend, likely starting on Saturday but, if the system stalls, may occur later. This will bring spells of rain to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times, with drier and clearer interludes between them. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Some snow is also likely at times in the north, especially over high ground. Temperatures are uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be below normal for the time of year, especially in the north.

    Sunday 24 Jan - Sunday 7 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK it is expected to be drier than normal with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with temperatures slightly above average. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    In other words

    It could be cold, it could be hot. 

    It could snow, it could not. 

    There's a risk of there not being snow. 

    At least part of it will be right. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    57 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

    @KTtom I think what they mean is the systems are likely to transfer across the atlantic starting Saturday but it maybe after that if it all stalls 🤔🤔🤔.  It has to be said, as others have mentioned previously, very poor writing indeed.  Otherwise I don’t think they have a scoobydoo what the weather will do going forward.  

    Traitor! 😁

    Yes, now ive got the punctuation right in my head it makes sense 😁

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
    13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Traitor! 😁

    Yes, now ive got the punctuation right in my head it makes sense 😁

    😱😂😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    Never mind guys, I've just rewritten it!

    Unsettled conditions are looking to transfer across from the Atlantic over the weekend, likely starting on Saturday but, when the system stalls, will never happen at all. This will bring spells of snow to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times, with drier and clearer interludes between them. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of snowfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Extremely heavy snow is also likely at times everywhere, especially in and around Rotherhithe. Temperatures are not in the least bit uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be enormously below normal for the time of year, especially in the London area.👍😁

    Fancy a move down to Exeter Pete ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Shockingly written, doesn't tell you what next week will bring. Very poor.

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Yes a  good outlook for next week ,we have a ticket to colder temp and possibly some Snow ,no change yet on the period 26th onwards , but i suppose at that range thats pointless and will probably get written in tomorrow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Im liking the "organised snowfall" and the "rain and OR snow" bits.

    Its normally a "wintry mix" or "rain sleet and snow" ! This ties in with everything we are seeing on the runs and discussing in the MOD thread.

    Great update 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Doesn't sound great for the South, with still talking about bands of rain croosing, and greater chance in the North. 

    Still these met forecasts should be not taken too seriously, they seem to word it to cover all outcomes,and they have failed plenty of time with these long-range forecasts

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    Well according to this the met Office are talking about more snow & ice into next week although they don't know where or when any will fall but they certainly ain't going for anything mild. 

    Edited by Smartie
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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Doesn't sound great for the South, with still talking about bands of rain croosing, and greater chance in the North. 

    Still these met forecasts should be not taken too seriously, they seem to word it to cover all outcomes,and they have failed plenty of time with these long-range forecasts

    Apart that weird high pressure forecast (That WIB also fell for) I think their text forecasts have been accurate. Wintry hazards, ice and short lived mild spells is what we have had.

    Yes their wording can seem very amateurish, but it needs to be simplistic to an extent for the general population to understand.


    They really ought to have a section directed at people who know a little bit about meteorology who can understand some of the more technical stuff. A bit like their long-range forecasts but in text and with diagrams central to the format. Netweather has a great section for learning a lot of the terminology and I think their forecasts are much more pleasing to read.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    Updated to on website still going with colder weather from Scandinavia all parts of uk could see colder spells also chances of snow in south depending on boundary

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    17 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    Updated to on website still going with colder weather from Scandinavia all parts of uk could see colder spells also chances of snow in south depending on boundary

    Still showing as last updated at 04:00 for me. This afternoon's update not on yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Still showing as last updated at 04:00 for me. This afternoon's update not on yet.

    From Monday onwards unsettled conditions look likely to continue, with winds from the north bringing colder conditions from a cold airmass currently resident over Scandinavia west across the north and potentially much of the country at times throughout the week. A north-easterly flow may bring frequent showers, particularly to the northern windward coasts, possibly falling as snow over high ground and sometimes down to low levels. The jet stream will become shifted southwards bringing rain to southern areas throughout the week, with a possibility of some organised snowfall forming on the leading edge of these features. Temperatures most likely rather cold for the north of the UK and near or slightly above average temperatures across the south, but cold spells can't be ruled out here also.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    No idea why it always says updated 04.00, when it doesn't update overnight...unless that's when they put it together ? (might explain the tired language!)

    Probably where we should be setting expectations. The Met outlook has been consistent until recently saying there was no indication of severe cold occurring (something like that anyway). I also seem to remember a quote on here where a Met forecast said there were no signs of a BFTE  but a similar set up to that  we have just experienced was likely for the end of the month....Cold / Rather cold sums it up with snow potential Midlands north? 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Monday 18 Jan - Wednesday 27 Jan

    From Monday onwards unsettled conditions look likely to continue, with winds from the north bringing colder conditions from a cold airmass currently resident over Scandinavia west across the north and potentially much of the country at times throughout the week. A north-easterly flow may bring frequent showers, particularly to the northern windward coasts, possibly falling as snow over high ground and sometimes down to low levels. The jet stream will become shifted southwards bringing rain to southern areas throughout the week, with a possibility of some organised snowfall forming on the leading edge of these features. Temperatures most likely rather cold for the north of the UK and near or slightly above average temperatures across the south, but cold spells can't be ruled out here also.

    Wednesday 27 Jan - Wednesday 10 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK risk of precipitation is expected with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with periods where temperatures may be slightly above average also. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I don't see deep cold in this update.

    Any heavy snow chances appear to be due to evaporative cooling in marginal upper air scenarios as opposed to entrenched deep cold. Snow likely melting quickly after it stops.

    Basically, hit and miss like the last few weeks

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
    Just now, mountain shadow said:

    I don't see deep cold in this update.

    Any heavy snow chances appear to be due to evaporative cooling in marginal upper air scenarios as opposed to entrenched deep cold. Snow likely melting quickly after it stops.

    Basically, hit and miss like the last few weeks

    Air and winds from North East??? That's what I've read . But models this morning don't show this only for the far north which makes me think that systems will brush across the south with n wales . N Midlands northwards looking prime for colder weather... could all change of course  (this is how I see it ) ps I might be wrong hahahaah

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
    3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I don't see deep cold in this update.

    Any heavy snow chances appear to be due to evaporative cooling in marginal upper air scenarios as opposed to entrenched deep cold. Snow likely melting quickly after it stops.

    Basically, hit and miss like the last few weeks

    Yes i agree to a point ,but with a bit of luck it could bring snow falling and possibly settling for a while , and we have the possibility of sudden changes to the synoptics at this range ,all eyes now on tonights charts , best of luck to all posters on your snow chances , this week and next ,cheers Legritter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    I don't see deep cold in this update.

    Any heavy snow chances appear to be due to evaporative cooling in marginal upper air scenarios as opposed to entrenched deep cold. Snow likely melting quickly after it stops.

    Basically, hit and miss like the last few weeks

    Complete waste of a winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    44 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Appalling luck for the South continues while the North continue to enjoy frequent snowfall occurrences!

    Yes, that does look increasingly frustrating for us southerners!  However, as other have alluded to, a very uncertain outlook and things could well fall in our favor yet.

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