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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    On a knife edge.

    We need a bit of luck.

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos

    I like the forecast for the end of the month. It screams the chances of battleground snowfall. High risk for high reward. It might change, but if not, bring it on I say! 

    Edited by John88B
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, John88B said:

    I like the forecast for the end of the month. It screams the chances of battleground snowfall. High risk for high reward. It might change, but if not, bring it on I say! 

    Not so good for us southerners though who will likely be on the wrong side of marginal and get a deluge of cold rain!  However, would be quite happy from your perspective and plenty of twists and turns to come yet.

    EDIT: Sorry, I miss read your location and you're actually not too far from me lol but perhaps enough to make a difference?!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: North Yate, South Glos
    10 minutes ago, Don said:

    Not so good for us southerners though who will likely be on the wrong side of marginal and get a deluge of cold rain!  However, would be quite happy from your perspective and plenty of twists and turns to come yet.

    EDIT: Sorry, I miss read your location and you're actually not too far from me lol but perhaps enough to make a difference?!

    Hi Don, yeah not too far from you. I remember some great battleground events in the west country over the years. The best ones obviously when the cold eventually wins out and you're left with  nice deep snow cover that lasts for a good while.

    Fingers crossed we're in for something similar this year, it's long overdue! 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Worth watching

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
    2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    Worth watching

     

    Very interested to hear what 'type' of SSW would be more favorable in terms of UK cold?

    After hearing that a study has shown the most recent SSW is more likely to promote A South westerly airflow into the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

    Very interested to hear what 'type' of SSW would be more favorable in terms of UK cold?

    After hearing that a study has shown the most recent SSW is more likely to promote A South westerly airflow into the UK.

    Just our luck!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 hours ago, John88B said:

    Hi Don, yeah not too far from you. I remember some great battleground events in the west country over the years. The best ones obviously when the cold eventually wins out and you're left with  nice deep snow cover that lasts for a good while.

    Fingers crossed we're in for something similar this year, it's long overdue! 

    I'm with you on that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    2 hours ago, sunnijim said:

    Very interested to hear what 'type' of SSW would be more favorable in terms of UK cold?

    After hearing that a study has shown the most recent SSW is more likely to promote A South westerly airflow into the UK.

    I wonder if they could be referring to this recent paper from Daniela Domeien and others published August 2020?-I've added the link below.

    It suggests that if Greenland blocking is present at the time of the SSW, as probably the case in the recent event. This often leads to a warming trend across much of Central Europe 2-4 weeks after the event, and from the 500hPa height anomalies you could assume this pattern would not be overly cold for the UK (image attached).

    From this study the European blocking SSW looks to be the most favourable for UK cold, and that was not the case with the recent event (image attached).

    It is a very small sample size used in the study though, but we've only got a small sample of these events to look at in the satellite era. I guess one of the reasons why there are so many unknowns and uncertainties in the world of weather forecasting.

     

    wcd-1-373-2020-avatar-web.png
    WCD.COPERNICUS.ORG

    <p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can significantly impact tropospheric weather for a period of several weeks, in particular in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region...

     

    Screenshot 2021-01-06 at 22.27.29.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    38 minutes ago, KeegansPerm said:

    I wonder if they could be referring to this recent paper from Daniela Domeien and others published August 2020?-I've added the link below.

    It suggests that if Greenland blocking is present at the time of the SSW, as probably the case in the recent event. This often leads to a warming trend across much of Central Europe 2-4 weeks after the event, and from the 500hPa height anomalies you could assume this pattern would not be overly cold for the UK (image attached).

     

    Interesting and we will just have to wait and see how this all unfolds during the second half of winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Tuesday 12 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

    Sunday begins with a band of cloud and patchy rain pushing in southeast across Scotland. Brighter and colder conditions follow to the far northeast of Scotland and Northern Isles, though further wet weather is likely later. Into Monday, high pressure to the west will decline allowing Atlantic frontal systems to bring in milder conditions, with temperatures closer to the average for this time of year, though further wintry hazards across the far north. Then past Wednesday, as this high pressure develops to the southwest of the UK, mobile and cyclonic northwesterly flows bring unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent.

    Wednesday 20 Jan - Wednesday 3 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, with the potential for milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses meet.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Boston Spa
  • Location: Boston Spa
    3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Tuesday 12 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

    Sunday begins with a band of cloud and patchy rain pushing in southeast across Scotland. Brighter and colder conditions follow to the far northeast of Scotland and Northern Isles, though further wet weather is likely later. Into Monday, high pressure to the west will decline allowing Atlantic frontal systems to bring in milder conditions, with temperatures closer to the average for this time of year, though further wintry hazards across the far north. Then past Wednesday, as this high pressure develops to the southwest of the UK, mobile and cyclonic northwesterly flows bring unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent.

    Wednesday 20 Jan - Wednesday 3 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, with the potential for milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses meet.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    Thats yesterdays!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    Just now, Always a red said:

    Thats yesterdays!

    It's today's update. Yesterday's is on the previous page.

    587816841_Screenshot_2021-01-07MetoUkFurtherOutlook.thumb.png.edfae18ca5b1801b779a5d00cae9f1f0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    I have an update for January, it will be mild and cold, dry and wet with wide spread weather, particularly in the middle of January. Towards the end of the month more cold mild dry wet weather is likely, particularly every where.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    1 minute ago, Always a red said:

    They are both the same

    It appeares to be another met office mess up.

    They've changed the date though seemingly forgot to change the forecast 🤦‍♂️

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Boston Spa
  • Location: Boston Spa
    Just now, Summer Sun said:

    It appeares to be another met office mess up.

    They've changed the date though seemingly forgot to change the forecast 🤦‍♂️

    Delaying the bad news if you like cold and snow no doubt!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kings Lynn
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: Kings Lynn

    More evidence of a deeply un-professional malaise.

    The forecast for the period starting Tuesday 12th begins by talking about Sunday (presumably 10th).

    This is their public output, their premier forecast for every-day consumers - and it's lamentably poor. 

    An enthusiastic child would do a better job of writing them. They should be proof read and clearly they never are.

     

     

    Edited by Borei
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    Posted
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
    2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    I have an update for January, it will be mild and cold, dry and wet with wide spread weather, particularly in the middle of January. Towards the end of the month more cold mild dry wet weather is likely, particularly every where.

     

    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    It appeares to be another met office mess up.

    They've changed the date though seemingly forgot to change the forecast 🤦‍♂️

    /

     

    2 minutes ago, Always a red said:

    They are both the same

    🤣🤣🙄 have to smile though,  the met office certainly like to cover every base don’t they.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton

    Just a thought, these aren’t automatically computer generated written forecasts are they courtesy of PC wizardry.  It might explain the poor grammar and other mistakes particularly if no “hooman” is checking them. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kings Lynn
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: Kings Lynn
    Just now, Snowycat said:

    Just a thought, these aren’t automatically computer generated written forecasts are they courtesy of PC wizardry.  It might explain the poor grammar and other mistakes particularly if no “hooman” is checking them. 

    Well, possibly, but it's still not an excuse for abysmally written public facing output.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Take 2

    Tuesday 12 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

    Confidence is particularly low at the start of this period. Cloud, rain and stronger winds, heaviest in the north and west, sinking south later. Drier conditions in sheltered east and southeast areas, with colder, brighter, and more settled conditions to the north of these regions. Temperatures rather mild in the south, to cold in the north. It is expected that high pressure will then develop to the southwest of the UK, generating a changeable north-westerly wind with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent. Temperatures closer to average, but large day to night temperature contrasts under clear skies.

    Thursday 21 Jan - Thursday 4 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for winds from the west to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be around average to a little below. The south is more likely to see unsettled conditions with the potential for milder than average temperatures here, but this will also bring a risk of further snow where this meets the colder conditions to the north.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
    13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Take 2

    Tuesday 12 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

    Confidence is particularly low at the start of this period. Cloud, rain and stronger winds, heaviest in the north and west, sinking south later. Drier conditions in sheltered east and southeast areas, with colder, brighter, and more settled conditions to the north of these regions. Temperatures rather mild in the south, to cold in the north. It is expected that high pressure will then develop to the southwest of the UK, generating a changeable north-westerly wind with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent. Temperatures closer to average, but large day to night temperature contrasts under clear skies.

    Thursday 21 Jan - Thursday 4 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for winds from the west to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be around average to a little below. The south is more likely to see unsettled conditions with the potential for milder than average temperatures here, but this will also bring a risk of further snow where this meets the colder conditions to the north.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    They’ve forgotten to slip in thunder and lightening somewhere 🤣🙈   

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    42 minutes ago, Borei said:

    Well, possibly, but it's still not an excuse for abysmally written public facing output.

    They always were human produced, no idea now

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