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  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Clearly not going with GFS.. although it's to me looking like a couple of average days next weekend and then we start again ūüôā

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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    Posted
  • Location: Crystal Palace, South London (300 feet asl)
  • Location: Crystal Palace, South London (300 feet asl)
    51 minutes ago, Always a red said:

    16-30th is the same as yesterday??

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    hi - updated here

     

    Friday 8 Jan - Sunday 17 Jan

    Some outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are likely across central areas initially, with wintry showers also feeding in from the North Sea. Through Friday precipitation will be tending to decay in both of these regions, with cold, fine and dry conditions becoming more widespread. Over the weekend conditions across the country are likely to turn more unsettled with cloud and patchy rain spreading east and temperatures recovering to near average for many, by this time the risk of sleet and snow will most likely become confined to the north of the country. Through the following week rather cold conditions are most likely to re-establish nationwide, with northern and western areas continuing to see frosts.

    Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 3 Jan 2021

    Sunday 17 Jan - Sunday 31 Jan

    Confidence is low during this time, but more unsettled conditions are signalled to affect at least southern and central parts of the UK, with drier and colder weather being retained in the north. Whilst generally remaining colder than average, some milder interludes are possible in the south around the beginning of this period. Later in the month, an increased chance of colder conditions returning nationwide. Throughout, there remains a risk of snowfall and other wintry hazards for some parts of the UK.

     

    default_card_315.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Crystal Palace National Sports Centre 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    51 minutes ago, andreas said:

    hi - updated here

     

    Friday 8 Jan - Sunday 17 Jan

    Some outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are likely across central areas initially, with wintry showers also feeding in from the North Sea. Through Friday precipitation will be tending to decay in both of these regions, with cold, fine and dry conditions becoming more widespread. Over the weekend conditions across the country are likely to turn more unsettled with cloud and patchy rain spreading east and temperatures recovering to near average for many, by this time the risk of sleet and snow will most likely become confined to the north of the country. Through the following week rather cold conditions are most likely to re-establish nationwide, with northern and western areas continuing to see frosts.

    Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 3 Jan 2021

    Sunday 17 Jan - Sunday 31 Jan

    Confidence is low during this time, but more unsettled conditions are signalled to affect at least southern and central parts of the UK, with drier and colder weather being retained in the north. Whilst generally remaining colder than average, some milder interludes are possible in the south around the beginning of this period. Later in the month, an increased chance of colder conditions returning nationwide. Throughout, there remains a risk of snowfall and other wintry hazards for some parts of the UK.

     

    default_card_315.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Crystal Palace National Sports Centre 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

     

    Wintry hazardsūüėģ

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Wintry hazards as in phantom easterlies and cold spells always being in FI

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Saturday 9 Jan - Monday 18 Jan

    Showers will affect the southeast initially on Saturday with light rain and hill snow moving into northern Scotland through the day, but most areas should stay dry with some sunny spells as any patchy freezing fog slowly clears. Confidence is low from here on, but a shift to more unsettled conditions is likely through Sunday and into next week as high pressure moves to the southwest of the UK and allows periods of wetter and at times milder weather to move in. Intermittent periods of rainfall and strong winds are expected, especially in the north of the country, though colder spells are likely between these. Southern areas will see more settled conditions, staying drier, clearer and calmer. Temperatures will probably be slightly below average overall, with frosts possible in places.

    Monday 18 Jan - Monday 1 Feb

    Confidence is low during this time, but more unsettled conditions are signalled to affect at least southern and central parts of the UK, with drier and colder weather being retained in the north. Whilst generally remaining colder than average, some milder interludes are possible in the south around the beginning of this period. Later in the month, an increased chance of colder conditions returning nationwide. Throughout, there remains a risk of snowfall and other wintry hazards for some parts of the UK.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Sunday 10 Jan - Tuesday 19 Jan

    Sunday begins with a band of cloud and patchy rain pushing in southeast across Scotland. Brighter and colder conditions follow to the far northeast of Scotland and Northern Isles, though further wet weather is likely later. Into Monday, high pressure to the west will decline allowing Atlantic frontal systems to bring in milder conditions, with temperatures closer to the average for this time of year, though further wintry hazards across the far north. Then past Wednesday, as this high pressure develops to the southwest of the UK, mobile and cyclonic northwesterly flows bring unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent.

    Tuesday 19 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Sunday 10 Jan - Tuesday 19 Jan

    Sunday begins with a band of cloud and patchy rain pushing in southeast across Scotland. Brighter and colder conditions follow to the far northeast of Scotland and Northern Isles, though further wet weather is likely later. Into Monday, high pressure to the west will decline allowing Atlantic frontal systems to bring in milder conditions, with temperatures closer to the average for this time of year, though further wintry hazards across the far north. Then past Wednesday, as this high pressure develops to the southwest of the UK, mobile and cyclonic northwesterly flows bring unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent.

    Tuesday 19 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    Holy moly!!

    Significant snowfall alert!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Backing away from the colder outlook for the south at least would be my take?

    Those EC46 charts yesterday were a kick in the nuts... And we seeing a less bold prognosis for cold on this latest update.

    Shocking Macro trends since turn of year, just as SSW kicks in...

    Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Holy moly!!

    Significant snowfall alert!!

    Yes the alertness mounts ūü§™ūü§™

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

    Everyone says this is a stunning update. My take on it is average at best with some battle ground snow for usual suspects in the North. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

    Everyone says this is a stunning update. My take on it is average at best with some battle ground snow for usual suspects in the North. 

    Problem is they change at regular intervals? What's the point trying to punt at something heading in to February if it's changed at the end of the week ūü§Ēūü§Ēūü§Ē

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Sunday 10 Jan - Tuesday 19 Jan

    Sunday begins with a band of cloud and patchy rain pushing in southeast across Scotland. Brighter and colder conditions follow to the far northeast of Scotland and Northern Isles, though further wet weather is likely later. Into Monday, high pressure to the west will decline allowing Atlantic frontal systems to bring in milder conditions, with temperatures closer to the average for this time of year, though further wintry hazards across the far north. Then past Wednesday, as this high pressure develops to the southwest of the UK, mobile and cyclonic northwesterly flows bring unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent.

    Tuesday 19 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    Not a great update for southern areas but really looks to be on a knife edge later on.  However, this is subject to change of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    35 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

    Everyone says this is a stunning update. My take on it is average at best with some battle ground snow for usual suspects in the North. 

    I agree , it's taken away the threat of something widespread - not a great update I'd say 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlow IRE
  • Location: Carlow IRE

    FWIW the Irish Met Office, Met Eireann have started doing monthly forecasts:
     

    OG-icon.jpg
    WWW.MET.IE

    Met √Čireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

    Week 1 (Friday 08 January to Thursday 14 January)

    High pressure is expected to influence Ireland’s weather during this week. A north or northeast air-flow looks set to dominate early in the period before the air-flow becomes variable as high pressure builds in over the country. Mean air temperatures are expected to be below average with a risk of frost, ice and some wintry precipitation. However, it looks set to turn a little less cold later in the period. Soil temperatures are expected to run below the seasonal-norm. As high pressure will be the dominant feature of the weather, is expected to be drier than normal for early to mid-January with only small amounts of rainfall forecast.

    Week 2 (Friday 15 January to Thursday 21 January)

    Forecast confidence declines in week 2 but there is an indication that weather conditions will turn more unsettled. High pressure is forecast to decline with some frontal systems moving through. Mean air temperatures are expected to be near-average for January with a reduced risk of frost and ice as compared to previous weeks. Rainfall totals are expected to be higher than in previous weeks with rainfall amounts forecast to be around average for mid-Winter, possibly higher than average in parts of the south.

    Week 3 (Friday 22 January to Thursday 28 January)

    By late January, there is lower confidence in the forecast but there is a signal for weather conditions to remain fairly unsettled with low pressure situated close to Ireland. Mean air temperatures are expected to be above average with a reduced risk of frost and ice as compared to the climatological average. As low pressure will quite dominant with frontal troughs nearby, it looks set to be wetter than average across most of the country. Forecast confidence falls lower by the end of the period but it looks set to stay rather unsettled.

    Week 4 (Friday 29 January to Thursday 04 February)

    By forecast week 4 confidence is much lower. However, there is a trend towards unsettled weather with low pressure expected to be positioned nearby Ireland. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be slightly above average for the time of year across much of the country whilst rainfall totals are projected to be above average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    Not been drawn in again with the 'significant snowfall' comments.  The models are all over the place in 4 to 5 day time  let alone the last third of January. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    The first period of  something milder is no surprise as it has been showing in the ens for a few days.

    The uncertainty later on is whether the ssw will affect the pattern.Allowing for time lag for down welling, late January would likely be the earliest to see this unless we have a remarkably quick response.

    I think they are seeing in their modeling that build of cold to the ne so the thinking is that it could edge towards parts of the UK  later so hence battleground snow possibilities.That has shown in what we have seen in some later charts.

    Of course if we don't get the ssw response coldies are hoping for then a return to our usual Atlantic set up is always on the cards.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    yep the usual nemesis AZH ridging close by - looks like the METO are leaning to this ridging near by rather than any HLB setting up shop

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Snowjokes92 said:

    Not been drawn in again with the 'significant snowfall' comments.  The models are all over the place in 4 to 5 day time  let alone the last third of January. 

    ......which is exactly why it says "confidence is low"...........!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 hours ago, Continental Climate said:

    Everyone says this is a stunning update. My take on it is average at best with some battle ground snow for usual suspects in the North. 

    The Met Office very very rarely use phrases like significant snowfall,especially at this longer range.

    Given the small size of Britain, the pattern(if right) would only need to be a couple of hundred miles South to impact Southern England. 

    Hopefully this is just the start of upgrades.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kings Lynn
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: Kings Lynn

    Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

     

    I hear a lot about how the UKMO are the best in the world - an assertion which is invariably recited as an article of faith without any supporting evidence. 

    But their forecasts are often poorly written and worded, ambiguous, and in today's example above, grammatically atrocious. 

    It's un-professional and very poor. I've seen better worded fraud e mails from spoof Nigerian princes¬†ūüôā¬†

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    Deleted

    Edited by Snowjokes92
    Nevermind..
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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    3 hours ago, Borei said:

    Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

     

    I hear a lot about how the UKMO are the best in the world - an assertion which is invariably recited as an article of faith without any supporting evidence. 

    But their forecasts are often poorly written and worded, ambiguous, and in today's example above, grammatically atrocious. 

    It's un-professional and very poor. I've seen better worded fraud e mails from spoof Nigerian princes¬†ūüôā¬†

    A ten year old child could write them better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Suggests to me they are seeing heights to our NW, cold trough to our NE, and lower heights to our SW - negative NAO pattern but more west-based than east, NE flow into northern parts doing battle with SW flow into southern parts with fronts straddling the UK - the cold holding on in the north. Type of synoptics we used to see alot of but no longer, the milder atlantic air tending to win out more recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Monday 11 Jan - Wednesday 20 Jan

    Sunday begins with a band of cloud and patchy rain pushing in southeast across Scotland. Brighter and colder conditions follow to the far northeast of Scotland and Northern Isles, though further wet weather is likely later. Into Monday, high pressure to the west will decline allowing Atlantic frontal systems to bring in milder conditions, with temperatures closer to the average for this time of year, though further wintry hazards across the far north. Then past Wednesday, as this high pressure develops to the southwest of the UK, mobile and cyclonic northwesterly flows bring unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain and, at times, strong winds as well as occasional colder temperatures. Drier, more settled conditions are then probable across the south of the UK, with frost and fog fairly prevalent.

    Wednesday 20 Jan - Wednesday 3 Feb

    Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, with the potential for milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses meet.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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