Meto Uk Further Outlook

[georgiedre]

Maybe they are anticipating change in the forecast.  Hopefully for the cold camp

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Noticed the same the other day.

It's been like that for years. I emailed them about it a few years ago and they said they'd look into it - nothing changed.

[chapmanslade]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It does seem that the BBC (Meteogroup) use almost 100% ECM for their forecasts as you can see the graphics match the last ECM run on every forecast. I know they are not the Met office,  & are a private organisation, but surely they can still use UKMO and MOGREPS / UKV etc? In fact they should use every model available (even if behind a paywall) as that’s what forecasters should do? Not just display 1 single model ? Their app (weather pro) is just a direct feed from the ECM run as well. Hopefully the Met office win the contract back next time it is reviewed ! 

Replying in the correct thread. Automated Weather apps are always just going to be a single model output - trying to blend models into an app would be impossible and whichever one you use it will be wrong at some point

BBC use a range of models for their TV forecasts and often refer to variations between models. At the short time scale for TV forecasts there are rarely significant discrepancies between models and Meteogroup provided the BBC with improved graphics and IT integration. They were not forced to choose Meteogroup, but they were required to tender. 

Ian Fergusson has posted on here in years gone by explaining how they achieve their forecasts and just bashing the BBC / Meteogroup v BBC/ Met Office is just plain silly

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 5 Jan - Thursday 14 Jan

The start of the period will see showers in the east becoming lighter and more isolated. These are likely wintry over high ground, and may become wintry over lower levels, particularly overnight. More extensive spells of precipitation will spread across the south and southeast, though it is unclear how far north they will spread. Dry and sunny weather likely elsewhere, especially in sheltered locations in the west and northwest. Wintry hazards, particularly frost, are likely throughout the period, especially in the north and west. Patchy freezing fog is also likely in the northwest. There is a chance for more organised rain to develop, along with strong winds, but confidence on this is currently low. Temperatures remaining colder than average for this time of year.

Thursday 14 Jan - Thursday 28 Jan

Through the second half of the month the chance of colder than average conditions remain most likely, although occasional milder spells are possible. There is potential for unsettled conditions to develop across the south bringing above average precipitation, although the risk of wintry hazards will persist nationwide.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[KTtom]

Chance of more organised rain with strong winds??

[Sweatyman]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Chance of more organised rain with strong winds??

Yeah sounds crap! What is going on? So much for snowy spells. Still be waiting at the end of Feb!

[iceman1991]

Yep back tracking now baby steps from now  oh well maybe luck next winter 

[iceman1991]

Just now, iceman1991 said:

Yep back tracking now baby steps from now  oh well maybe luck next winter 

This cold spell been crap and think it will just keep carrying on for next couple of  weeks exactly the same.  Always keeps being  far end models show wintry ain’t gunna happend remember this happening pretty sure  last year with mettoffice update espiacally saying same old wintry weather didn’t happend will be the same this year 

[iceman1991]

Media jynx it for us to every time  they say something like extreme with snow headlines  opposite happens 

[chapmanslade]

27 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Chance of more organised rain with strong winds??

 

19 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Yeah sounds crap! What is going on? So much for snowy spells. Still be waiting at the end of Feb!

Have you actually read it properly?

There is a chance for more organised rain to develop, along with strong winds, but confidence on this is currently low

As in not likely.

 

Write off winter at the end of December ???? Today's maximum 2C here so hardly tropical. 

[chapmanslade]

3 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Media jynx it for us to every time  they say something like extreme with snow headlines  opposite happens 

What media ? If you believe the Daily Express or Daily Mail you are always going to be misled.

 

[damianslaw]

Another all over the place forecast, chance of rain, colder than average temperatures still.. colder than average temps second half of January as well. Suggests to me they expect heights to to the NW still but frontal features moving in from the south, southerly tracking jet.

 

[iceman1991]

10 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

What media ? If you believe the Daily Express or Daily Mail you are always going to be misled.

 

Not understanding what I’m saying I don’t beleave anything them idiots say but when there’s  a possible snow on the Horizon media sniff then they say snows on way headlines then weather does total opposite that’s what I’m saying 

[joggs]

Very underwhelming........

[Brucie]

Very vague.  'Precipitation' and 'wintry hazards' seem the buzz words at the moment.  I think even the met office are struggling to predict what will happen in detail.

[Don]

2 hours ago, iceman1991 said:

This cold spell been crap and think it will just keep carrying on for next couple of  weeks exactly the same.  Always keeps being  far end models show wintry ain’t gunna happend remember this happening pretty sure  last year with mettoffice update espiacally saying same old wintry weather didn’t happend will be the same this year 

We are in a much better place than we have been for  a number of years and I’m sure there will be snow opportunities during the next few weeks.  

[KTtom]

3 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

 

Have you actually read it properly?

There is a chance for more organised rain to develop, along with strong winds, but confidence on this is currently low

As in not likely.

 

Write off winter at the end of December ???? Today's maximum 2C here so hardly tropical. 

Ecm dissagrees!

[KTtom]

Check out the updated, extended forecast for the end of the month!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Check out the updated, extended forecast for the end of the month!

Bartlett  lol

[Catacol]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Bartlett  lol

No. First minor MetO ramp of the season. Though in truth these text forecasts are constantly disguised and downplayed. We have a MetO with some of the best weather minds and models in the world, but out beyond around 72 hours they choose to give us as little info as possible. Perhaps if they released more of the mountains of data they must have to the public they would actually get less tabloid nonsense and hysteria. They hide so much that sensational media and social media headlines and out of context comments are standard fayre.

[KTtom]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Bartlett  lol

Where do you get that from, 'probably turning colder with snow risk'? Must be factoring in SSW?

Edited January 1, 2021 by KTtom

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 6 Jan - Friday 15 Jan

Scattered showers will feed across eastern parts of the UK during Wednesday with a chance of more prolonged rain and hill snow across the southeast later. Elsewhere it will be mostly fine and cold, although some sleet and snow is likely to reach the far northwest by the end of the day. For the rest of the week and into the weekend conditions are likely to turn more widely unsettled with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow for many parts of the UK. Overnight frosts and icy stretches are also expected with temperatures below average. By the middle of January conditions will probably begin to become a little less cold with the potential for periods of rain and strong winds.

Friday 15 Jan - Friday 29 Jan

During the middle of January unsettled conditions are likely to affect southern and central parts of the UK with drier weather expected for the north and west. Whilst generally remaining colder than average some milder interludes are possible in the south. Toward the end of the month colder conditions become more probable, this bringing an increasing chance of snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[iceman1991]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday 6 Jan - Friday 15 Jan

Scattered showers will feed across eastern parts of the UK during Wednesday with a chance of more prolonged rain and hill snow across the southeast later. Elsewhere it will be mostly fine and cold, although some sleet and snow is likely to reach the far northwest by the end of the day. For the rest of the week and into the weekend conditions are likely to turn more widely unsettled with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow for many parts of the UK. Overnight frosts and icy stretches are also expected with temperatures below average. By the middle of January conditions will probably begin to become a little less cold with the potential for periods of rain and strong winds.

Friday 15 Jan - Friday 29 Jan

During the middle of January unsettled conditions are likely to affect southern and central parts of the UK with drier weather expected for the north and west. Whilst generally remaining colder than average some milder interludes are possible in the south. Toward the end of the month colder conditions become more probable, this bringing an increasing chance of snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Looks like mid term downgraded to me even more and they’ve pushed cold to the very end which can’t member if  it was last year I think they kept pushing cold to the back all the time and nothing materialised in the end winter was gone sorry don’t mean to be like the grinch want cold and snow much as everyone eles here  really hope I’m wrong 

[Mark wheeler]

Doesn’t seem an upgrade to me tbh if anything this has stepped away from a prolonged cold spell especially further south and east and I’m normally a glass half full person .

[MattStoke]

‘Towardthe end of the month colder conditions become more probable, this bringing an increasing chance of snow’.

But winter is over on 1st January with the U.K. in the middle of a cold spell.

Some people are such a joke