Meto Uk Further Outlook

[legritter]

Hi gang ,first thing, i wish all posters a great as possible Christmas period.secondly, i had two uncles who worked at various met office centres ,plus i am an ex FR met society, todays outlook is a rather cold one ,and reading between the lines ,a professional Forecaster will not forecast notable snowfalls at long range, but if you like snow , it looks to me that the Uk could do well over the coming 10 to 15 day range ,Take care all ,Lamp posts at the ready ,and STELLAS all round .

[Sweatyman]

48 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Really?! Chance of "high pressure moving in from the south west"; a few wintry showers about. Winter 'Morsels' to feed off for much of the UK.

yeah I'm with you!! Scraps

[Polar Maritime]

Cracking extended update, Staying below avg till the end of January at least, Fantastic.

[Mike Poole]

The text update is about as much as you could expect this far out from a cold spell, based on (infrequent) previous experience.  It was that weird video forecast yesterday that rather spooked me!

[Borei]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Unless you just arrived from Mars, that metoffice update is as wintry as you could expect them to make ........ it rarely gets better than that .....

Quite so 

The MO updates are always very conservative in their wording, particularly when it comes to wintry weather. 

The interpretation of these updates is a matter for individuals. But I'm afraid that a few individuals, as we see on the MO thread, will deliberately obfuscate the prospects of a long period of below average temperatures in the heart of winter, despite it being clearly forecast from all sources (including the MO). Sceptics might say that's because they have a peculiar agenda of denial - and long periods of below average temperatures really do not fit a particular narrative. 

I quote from the MO outlook:

29/12 - 7/1 Temperatures are likely to remain below average through this period with wintry hazards.

7/1 - 21/1 A continuation of rather cold conditions looks most likely into early January and towards the middle part of January. From mid-January onwards confidence is low however similar conditions are most probable with winds most likely from a northerly quadrant, bringing below average temperatures and wintry hazards at times.

 

 

 

 

[Paul_1978]

If that isn’t an upgrade I don’t know what is. 

[Optimus Prime]

I'm trying to see sense in conspiracies and narratives with regards to the UKMO.

They forecast the weather, they don't control it. How often do we get periods of sustained cold these days? Rare. It's the science of balancing probabilities, and regardless of what happens this winter, normality will resume. 2010, 2012 and 2013 are all examples of comparatively cold / very cold years bundles amongst the usual tide of persistent mildness.

 

Regardless of all that, their most recent update is very sensible and is clearly indicating some unusually persistant cold for the foreseeable. 

[Norrance]

They do keep putting back the possible change to Atlantic weather. Now just possible in second half of January. 

Thursday 7 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

A continuation of rather cold conditions looks most likely into early January and towards the middle part of January. This would bring periods of fine and dry weather with western areas likely to be drier than average and eastern areas at risk of wintry showers. From mid-January onwards confidence is low however similar conditions are most probable with winds most likely from a northerly quadrant, bringing below average temperatures and wintry hazards at times. However there still remains the possibility of conditions turning more unsettled and milder through the second half of January.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 25 Dec 2020

[ALL ABOARD]

Updated last night.... 

 

Cold Jan is on.. 

Cold or rather cold conditions are generally likely to continue during this period, with a risk of wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be settled for parts of the north, and also in western areas. There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover. As we approach the end of the month, it is likely that colder-than-average conditions will generally persist through the country, rather than mild, wet and windy weather. However, it is possible for some areas to see milder spells.

There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover.

This bit is very interesting? Who said there was

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by ALL ABOARD

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 30 Dec - Friday 8 Jan

Generally unsettled conditions will continue during the beginning of this period, with spells of rain, sleet and snow likely across many areas. Any occurrences of snow are likely to be over higher ground, but there is also a chance of snow occurring over lower-level areas that are away from coasts. There is a possibility of drier and more settled conditions developing during this period, primarily across northern parts of the UK, and across areas in the west near the end of the period. At times it will be windy, particularly in western parts at first. Temperatures are likely to be low, feeling cold or rather cold, and bringing a risk of frost, ice and freezing fog.

Friday 8 Jan - Friday 22 Jan

Cold or rather cold conditions are generally likely to continue during this period, with a risk of wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be settled for parts of the north, and also in western areas. There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover. As we approach the end of the month, it is likely that colder-than-average conditions will generally persist through the country, rather than mild, wet and windy weather. However, it is possible for some areas to see milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[bluearmy]

It rarely gets better than that from Exeter ! 

[KTtom]

Pretty standard wintry outlook really, snow at elevation away from coasts, the usual standard press for a 'rather cold' period from years gone by. Shame about the sentance anbout no sign of exceptionally cold conditions anywhere, guess that rules out a beast.

Edited December 25, 2020 by KTtom

[TSNWK]

They have in essence now  dropped the mild references..it's a great update.  Now we make the next move towards removing the no sign of exceptional remarks

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

They have in essence now  dropped the mild references..it's a great update.  Now we make the next move towards removing the no sign of exceptional remarks

For them to even reference it is a start though

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

For them to even reference it is a start though

Actually.. I agree. I thought as much when I had submitted the post glad I'm not alone to have that thought.  Merry Christmas 

[ALL ABOARD]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Actually.. I agree. I thought as much when I had submitted the post glad I'm not alone to have that thought.  Merry Christmas 

You too

[Howie]

27 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Pretty standard wintry outlook really, snow at elevation away from coasts, the usual standard press for a 'rather cold' period from years gone by. Shame about the sentance anbout no sign of exceptionally cold conditions anuwhere, guess that rules out a beast.

They will always be reserved with their wording, especially after what happened in 2019. This update sounds very ominous to me tbh

[ICE COLD]

53 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Pretty standard wintry outlook really, snow at elevation away from coasts, the usual standard press for a 'rather cold' period from years gone by. Shame about the sentance anbout no sign of exceptionally cold conditions anywhere, guess that rules out a beast.

I think you need to read that again ? Like BA says above that that is a lovely update . It says snow to low levels away from the coast ? 

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Pretty standard wintry outlook really, snow at elevation away from coasts, the usual standard press for a 'rather cold' period from years gone by. Shame about the sentance anbout no sign of exceptionally cold conditions anywhere, guess that rules out a beast.

Actually Ktt. It says Currently no signs of exceptionally cold conditions. Which actually leaves the door open for that to change. 

[KTtom]

27 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I think you need to read that again ? Like BA says above that that is a lovely update . It says snow to low levels away from the coast ? 

....and guess where i am! Like i said run of the mill WINTRY conditions.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

....and guess where i am! Like i said run of the mill WINTRY conditions.

Ok fair enough Tom . But I wouldn’t take that Literally . I hope you get lucky and get a some right old dumpings

[KTtom]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Ok fair enough Tom . But I wouldn’t take that Literally . I hope you get lucky and get a some right old dumpings

I probably could have put it a bit better, what i was trying to say, many, many years ago...we used to get rain where a few miles inland it would snow, that was normal, i guess recently the norm is for us to get rain and a few miles inland also get rain

[lassie23]

2 hours ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Updated last night.... 

 

Cold Jan is on.. 

Cold or rather cold conditions are generally likely to continue during this period, with a risk of wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be settled for parts of the north, and also in western areas. There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover. As we approach the end of the month, it is likely that colder-than-average conditions will generally persist through the country, rather than mild, wet and windy weather. However, it is possible for some areas to see milder spells.

There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover.

This bit is very interesting? Who said there was

 

Who writes this mixed up rubbish lol

[Allseasons-Si]

That update has pushed the milder conditions further into end of Jan and could be further,great update that when last week they where saying that milder weather would probably come mid JAN

all good here on that prospect and takes us into SSW territory by then.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 31 Dec - Saturday 9 Jan

Generally unsettled conditions will continue during the beginning of this period, with spells of rain, sleet and snow likely across many areas. Any occurrences of snow are likely to be over higher ground, but there is also a chance of snow occurring over lower-level areas that are away from coasts. There is a possibility of drier and more settled conditions developing during this period, primarily across northern parts of the UK, and across areas in the west near the end of the period. At times it will be windy, particularly in western parts at first. Temperatures are likely to be low, feeling cold or rather cold, and bringing a risk of frost, ice and freezing fog.

Saturday 9 Jan - Saturday 23 Jan

Cold or rather cold conditions are generally likely to continue during this period, with a risk of wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be settled for parts of the north, and possibly extending to western areas too. There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover. As we approach the end of the month, it is likely that colder-than-average conditions will generally persist through the country, rather than mild, wet and windy weather. However, it is possible for some areas to see milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/