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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Regime 25/30 it says at the top. Looks like a climatological still IMO. I.e a synoptic example of a pattern with mean temperature deviation attached.

    Looks like it is from the DECIDER charts.

    finger-pointing-chart-screen.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Choose Decider to give fast advice to forecasting teams or traders working in weather-sensitive trades.

    decider_forecast_summary_table.png

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    So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

    Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

    In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I have to admit, my thought was that perhaps they don't want to or have been told not induce panic buying in an already sensitive situation. 

    In the modelling we see, maybe 10-15% of progressions are modelled as per Metoffice. 

    This said, why make the video in the first place then.

    The video will have been pre planned. Has to go ahead else people will wonder why it is absent. But without doubt the govt have a media link in to Exeter. I work in education - and today the latest plan to turn schools into test centres has a whole page given to media communications and what to do if, as a school, outward facing public comms are planned. Information these days is increasingly controlled, manipulated and dressed up. The current Conservative government have turned the concept of spin into tornado. The MetO will have a media expert or team of experts advising exactly how to dress up forecasts at New Year and at one week’s range. 

    Edited by Catacol
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    13 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

    Looks like it is from the DECIDER charts.

    finger-pointing-chart-screen.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Choose Decider to give fast advice to forecasting teams or traders working in weather-sensitive trades.

    decider_forecast_summary_table.png

    So they just used one of these and called it a day without using the models? That's very very strange indeed 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Does make me wonder what the UKMO actually think about the upcoming period, if they are putting out misinformation?  There’s a big difference between just holding off on something, and putting out wrong stuff deliberately - don’t they know we analyse all the models in here and elsewhere?  This video forecast, and I’ve watched all of it, is a laughable forecast for the new year.  Very suspicious, but I understand the country is in desperate times at the moment, so there may be a reason for it.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Snow White said:

    Looking at the bbc monthly forecast that was updated today it looks like they are now favouring a lengthy cold spell especially for northern areas.

    Although I have not compared the two to really reach a conclusion, I think the BBC monthly outlook was more accurate than the  Metoffice 30 day during winter 2018/19.  The Metoffice often went for very cold conditions whereas the BBC monthly outlook was far less cold.  Not saying that necessarily means anything in the weeks, just something I noticed back in early 2019.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    don’t they know we analyse all the models in here and elsewhere? 

    I don't think you should be using all in that sentence?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Don't rate the Met Office forecasts, they chop and change and always sit on the fence, specifying a mix of everything, chance of this and that etc

    It's a very sensitive time at present, and I suspect the government is influencing public announcements made by met office, BBC as well, whatever you do don't mention 'snow', alas bbc did today in long range forecast. Last thing government will want is cold wintry weather... mmm where have we been before in times of economic crisis 1978-79, 2009-10... a pattern developing...

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
    59 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Don't rate the Met Office forecasts, they chop and change and always sit on the fence, specifying a mix of everything, chance of this and that etc

    It's a very sensitive time at present, and I suspect the government is influencing public announcements made by met office, BBC as well, whatever you do don't mention 'snow', alas bbc did today in long range forecast. Last thing government will want is cold wintry weather... mmm where have we been before in times of economic crisis 1978-79, 2009-10... a pattern developing...

    I think this is utter nonsense. There’s no upside for the government in deliberately misrepresenting the weather forecast. Not happening.

    We know that the MetO are more cautious about forecasting snow than many here. We also know that they are generally more correct!

    Edited by IanT
    Missing word!
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Don't understand why he didn't mention that the  models they used were also showing Northerly winds only slightly less likely to continue in ten days in his tweet reply to a forum member, could be egg on his face in ten days if their is heavy snow falling. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    6 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    I don't think you should be using all in that sentence?!

    Indeed, there are of course, some that we can’t see.  But with the ECM data now publicly available, it becomes more difficult to imagine MOGREPS has some massively different evolution compared to the rest of the output.  We’ll see.

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    Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn

    Just seem MO extended outlook.. And its totally at odds with what the models we see are telling us.. Still banging the high pressure drum for end of December and new year... Why are they ignoring ECM GFS GEM and the rest. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    8 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

    Just seem MO extended outlook.. And its totally at odds with what the models we see are telling us.. Still banging the high pressure drum for end of December and new year... Why are they ignoring ECM GFS GEM and the rest. 

    I don't get it all...they have been so stubborn from the start. I hope they don't prove. Us all to be fools with what the models are. CONSISTENTLY SAYING 

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    Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    There’s strong similarities between what GFS is modelling and early January 2010 of which was the coldest January in U.K. since 1987 - Greenland blocking really is holy grail.

    79488380-AC93-4482-9A70-1A8E85F2EFED.thumb.png.64372da923947ed7daca6176120cf03c.pngD4836E6E-504E-4015-B6C9-F21291CE5ADF.thumb.png.35a9d9f89308bb2f4a3c62ac2d7e4c58.png

     

    Not according to MO. they have that high pressure over us

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Maybe not totally model related but I hope the met office are correct with high pressure over the U.K. I’ve got family down in Norfolk that are surrounded by floods this morning. They really need a break and time to dry out. So fingers crossed the met have this nailed for the high sat over the U.K. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    32 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    In reply to this

     My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them cos lets be honest a lot of the times in the past models will be forecasting cold but mild average bore fest wins out!they are very crafty when it comes to situation like this!!looks for last minite wording/changes to their forecasts!!just my opinion!!🤷‍♂️

    In my view, based on very old experience but I doubt that the approach in UK Met has changed, if you want objectivity and total lack of bias then UK Met is the forecast that will give it. Of course they may be wrong at times but all Met O forecasts are based on using long term experience, high qualifications in the science of meteorology along with the maths and physics on which it is based and also long term usage of ALL the models out there from whatever source. There is a tendency to use GFS less than ECMWF or their own models. There is absolutely no 'default' pattern they adopt, a forecast to whichever user, general public, aviation, shipping retail trade, etc, the forecast will be totally objective based on the model output they can access and their experience in using them.

    Hope that helps.

    I do wonder sometimes if armchair experts realise how insulting their opinions are to professionals in many walks of life !

    My experience of the Met Office is that they are a highly professional and world renowned organisation that provide a hugely important service to many. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    The latest EC EPS clusters (or should I say cluster) for early January do suggest increasing ridging edging in from the west. This can be seen in the 500hPa geopotential heights and anomalies. The corresponding surface charts likewise show a build of surface pressure from the west too.

    The text from the current MO outlook (valid until Thursday 7th January): 

    Into early January there are signs that higher pressure may start to build from the southwest bringing more settled weather. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread with the risk of morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to remain below average through this period with wintry hazards.

    This seems a fairly reasonable story to me.  Even looking at the GFS Ensemble Mean from the 24th 00 UTC run at T+240, pressure across the UK is building upwards of 1010hPa.

    I don't quite see why people are interpreting the tentative use of the phrase  "signs that higher pressure may start to build from the southwest" as anything more than the MO just trying to convey that this change has a reasonable probability of occuring. They still maintain cold conditions and a risk of wintry hazards. Of course there is spread in solutions with a whole host on offer (including some snowier ones). But having this tentative sign mentioned in the forecast looks a fair, reasoned and well balanced to me.

    The plume image attached is the EC EPS plume for 500hPa geopotential height for Manchester, UK. Not the EC HRES has lower gph than the ensemble mean in early January.

    Screenshot 2020-12-24 at 12.10.42.png

    Screenshot 2020-12-24 at 12.11.02.png

    Screenshot 2020-12-24 at 12.17.27.png

    Screenshot 2020-12-24 at 12.20.57.png

    Edited by KeegansPerm
    Add a statement.
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    Posted
  • Location: Godstone Surrey
  • Location: Godstone Surrey

    Some talk on here about the Met Office and conspiry theorys to cover up the true weather that be coming.. what a load of rot   . remember they are a commercial outfit and make a great deal of money offering detailed forecasts to all sorts of organisations

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Tuesday 29 Dec - Thursday 7 Jan

    Staying unsettled through the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow across the hills but also likely to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. At times it will be windy with a risk of coastal gales, with central and eastern areas likely to witness more in the way of lighter winds, bringing the risk of fog. Into early January there are signs that higher pressure may start to build from the southwest bringing more settled weather. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread with the risk of morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to remain below average through this period with wintry hazards.

    Thursday 7 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

    A continuation of rather cold conditions looks most likely into early January and towards the middle part of January. This would bring periods of fine and dry weather with western areas likely to be drier than average and eastern areas at risk of wintry showers. From mid-January onwards confidence is low however similar conditions are most probable with winds most likely from a northerly quadrant, bringing below average temperatures and wintry hazards at times. However there still remains the possibility of conditions turning more unsettled and milder through the second half of January.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Hmm.....so the pros still not buying into harsher winter weather. Their models must be seeing something 'others' arent or cannot.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, Bristle boy said:

    Hmm.....so the pros still not buying into harsher winter weather. Their models must be seeing something 'others' arent or cannot.

    Unless you just arrived from Mars, that metoffice update is as wintry as you could expect them to make ........ it rarely gets better than that .....

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    1 hour ago, chapmanslade said:

    I do wonder sometimes if armchair experts realise how insulting their opinions are to professionals in many walks of life !

    My experience of the Met Office is that they are a highly professional and world renowned organisation that provide a hugely important service to many. 

    Indeed, the Met Office are exceptionally good.  I've seen first-hand how innovative they are and there are some incredibly bright minds working there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Unless you just arrived from Mars, that metoffice update is as wintry as you could expect them to make ........ it rarely gets better than that .....

    Really?! Chance of "high pressure moving in from the south west"; a few wintry showers about. Winter 'Morsels' to feed off for much of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Well that the conspiracists derailed ........

    Its a fabulous update i don't know what the issue is.

    Just seen your post , agreed !

    Edited by northwestsnow
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