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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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Saturday 28 Nov - Monday 7 Dec

Drier and more settled conditions are likely to continue into the weekend with overnight frost in places and some morning fog patches. Over the course of the weekend and into early next week confidence in the prevailing weather pattern becomes more uncertain. Outbreaks of rain and stronger winds are more likely in the north and west with drier and more settled conditions persisting for longest in the south and east. Temperatures initially below average, perhaps recovering to closer to average during next week. During early December, conditions will likely become more changeable across all areas again, alternating between spells of rain with strong winds and brighter but showery interludes. The driest and brightest weather most likely in the southeast. Temperatures varying around average but with some colder spells possible.

Monday 7 Dec - Monday 21 Dec

It is likely to remain changeable through the period, resulting in a mixture of rainy, windy days and brighter, showery interludes. The northwest is expected to remain more unsettled with frequent spells of rain with a risk of gales at times. The best drier and brighter conditions during this period are most likely in the south and east, although these will still see some rain at times. It may become predominantly settled in the south, but the latter part of this period will have morning fog patches and overnight frosts becoming more prevalent. Overall temperatures will likely be close to normal for the time of the year, with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over higher ground in the north, as is normal for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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Sunday 29 Nov - Tuesday 8 Dec

Into the end of November and the start of December a high pressure system looks to maintain settled conditions across the south of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely, but not restricted to, northern and western regions. Temperatures near normal with overnight frosts and some mist and fog in places. The confidence for how this high pressure system then develops into the early December is low, with solutions showing equal likelihood for settled and unsettled weather to develop. Most confidence can be placed in that the south is likely to continue to see the majority of fine and settled conditions, and the north and west seeing the worst of any unsettled conditions.

Tuesday 8 Dec - Tuesday 22 Dec

The confidence for the outlook into December is low, but the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Overall the best of the driest and brightest weather in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in cooler and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Monday 30 Nov - Wednesday 9 Dec

Into the end of November and the start of December a high pressure system looks to maintain settled conditions across the south of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely, but not restricted to, northern and western regions. Temperatures near normal with overnight frosts and some mist and fog in places. The confidence for how this high pressure system then develops into the early December is low, with solutions showing equal likelihood for settled and unsettled weather to develop. Most confidence can be placed in that the south is likely to continue to see the majority of fine and settled conditions, and the north and west seeing the worst of any unsettled conditions.

Wednesday 9 Dec - Wednesday 23 Dec

The confidence for the outlook into December is low, but the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Overall the best of the driest and brightest weather in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in cooler and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Tuesday 1 Dec - Thursday 10 Dec

Into the start of December a high pressure system looks to maintain settled conditions across the south of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely, but not restricted to, northern and western regions. Temperatures look to be near normal with overnight frosts and some mist and fog in places under any clear skies. The confidence for how this high pressure system then develops later in this period is low, with solutions showing equal likelihood for settled and unsettled weather to develop. Most confidence can be placed in that the south is likely to continue to see the majority of fine and settled conditions, and the north and west seeing the worst of any unsettled conditions.

Thursday 10 Dec - Thursday 24 Dec

The confidence for the outlook into December is low, but the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Overall the best of the driest and brightest weather in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in cooler and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Wednesday 2 Dec - Friday 11 Dec

High pressure and generally settled weather will likely give way to wetter, and at times windier, conditions through the first week of December. Outbreaks of rain are likely in most areas, notably northern areas at first, and perhaps more southern areas into the weekend. Gales may also develop, these most likely for exposed western areas. Later in the period it may well turn more settled, though colder, with a return of night frost and fog. Some showers are likely too, these perhaps wintry at times in the north. Temperatures may start off near normal, though often feeling colder in windier and wetter spells. Below normal temperatures are then slightly more likely for later in the period.

Friday 11 Dec - Friday 25 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Cloudy and blustery conditions are still likely in the east at first. Overall, the best of the driest and brightest weather is in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in colder and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest are likely to turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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33 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It's become clear over the last week or so that they haven't got a clue about December. 

I think it's a hard one to call.

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Thursday 3 Dec - Saturday 12 Dec

High pressure and generally settled weather will likely give way to wetter, and at times windier, conditions through the first week of December. Outbreaks of rain are likely in most areas, notably northern areas at first, and perhaps more southern areas into the weekend. Gales may also develop, these most likely for exposed western areas. Later in the period it may well turn more settled, though colder, with a return of night frost and fog. Some showers are likely too, these perhaps wintry at times in the north. Temperatures may start off near normal, though often feeling colder in windier and wetter spells. Below normal temperatures are then slightly more likely for later in the period.

Saturday 12 Dec - Saturday 26 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Cloudy and blustery conditions are still likely in the east at first. Overall, the best of the driest and brightest weather is in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in colder and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest are likely to turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 3 Dec - Saturday 12 Dec

High pressure and generally settled weather will likely give way to wetter, and at times windier, conditions through the first week of December. Outbreaks of rain are likely in most areas, notably northern areas at first, and perhaps more southern areas into the weekend. Gales may also develop, these most likely for exposed western areas. Later in the period it may well turn more settled, though colder, with a return of night frost and fog. Some showers are likely too, these perhaps wintry at times in the north. Temperatures may start off near normal, though often feeling colder in windier and wetter spells. Below normal temperatures are then slightly more likely for later in the period.

Saturday 12 Dec - Saturday 26 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Cloudy and blustery conditions are still likely in the east at first. Overall, the best of the driest and brightest weather is in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in colder and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest are likely to turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

An interesting take on ‘I haven’t a clue’, specify so much detail in so many areas that everyone just switches off!

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

An interesting take on ‘I haven’t a clue’, specify so much detail in so many areas that everyone just switches off!

It's like a party political broadcast, hot wind and jaffa cakes

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17 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Met office going for a very wintery first half of December,possibly some significant snow

in places during later next week.Then high pressure building to the north,don’t get much better.

6 foot of snow on the way then  we wish 😂

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Friday 4 Dec - Sunday 13 Dec

The period will start unsettled across all parts of the UK, with areas of heavy rain and showers, locally of soft hail, sleet and snow likely, and possibly more widespread snow over some hills and mountains. Often windy, especially around coasts, but in quieter interludes overnight there will remain the potential for some patchy frost, and isolated mist and freezing fog. Temperatures are expected to be a below average overall. Later in this period, it could turn drier and more settled with a chance of high pressure moving in from the north, bringing brisk easterly winds. Again, where winds fall lighter, overnight frost and patchy fog is likely, this perhaps most likely in the north. Near, to slightly below, average temperatures are most likely.

Sunday 13 Dec - Sunday 27 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes seems slightly more likely, with winds and weather systems more likely to arrive from the Atlantic. Although confidence is low, in this pattern the best of the driest and brightest weather will be in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is most likely over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest could turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales at times, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Speaking of things UKMO, has anyone read the latest contingency planners 3-monthly?  AKA winter forecast.

frost-covering-a-sunny-field.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Our weather products help contingency planners prepare for and respond to emergencies.

I strongly advise not to bother for two reasons, the first is probably obvious, the second is the new format which is dumbed down to the point no self-respecting contingency planner would even look at it!

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18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Speaking of things UKMO, has anyone read the latest contingency planners 3-monthly?  AKA winter forecast.

frost-covering-a-sunny-field.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Our weather products help contingency planners prepare for and respond to emergencies.

I strongly advise not to bother for two reasons, the first is probably obvious, the second is the new format which is dumbed down to the point no self-respecting contingency planner would even look at it!

They speak of a moderate or even a strong La Nina. The latest seems to me highly unlikely.

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Saturday 5 Dec - Monday 14 Dec

The period will start unsettled across all parts of the UK, with areas of heavy rain and showers, locally of soft hail, sleet and snow likely, and possibly more widespread snow over some hills and mountains. Often windy, especially around coasts, but in quieter interludes overnight there will remain the potential for some patchy frost, and isolated mist and freezing fog. Temperatures are expected to be a below average overall. Later in this period, it could turn drier and more settled with a chance of high pressure moving in from the north, bringing brisk easterly winds. Again, where winds fall lighter, overnight frost and patchy fog is likely, this perhaps most likely in the north. Near, to slightly below, average temperatures are most likely.

Monday 14 Dec - Monday 28 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes seems slightly more likely, with winds and weather systems more likely to arrive from the Atlantic. Although confidence is low, in this pattern the best of the driest and brightest weather will be in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is most likely over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest could turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales at times, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest. Temperatures overall likely to be near or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday 5 Dec - Monday 14 Dec

The period will start unsettled across all parts of the UK, with areas of heavy rain and showers, locally of soft hail, sleet and snow likely, and possibly more widespread snow over some hills and mountains. Often windy, especially around coasts, but in quieter interludes overnight there will remain the potential for some patchy frost, and isolated mist and freezing fog. Temperatures are expected to be a below average overall. Later in this period, it could turn drier and more settled with a chance of high pressure moving in from the north, bringing brisk easterly winds. Again, where winds fall lighter, overnight frost and patchy fog is likely, this perhaps most likely in the north. Near, to slightly below, average temperatures are most likely.

Monday 14 Dec - Monday 28 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes seems slightly more likely, with winds and weather systems more likely to arrive from the Atlantic. Although confidence is low, in this pattern the best of the driest and brightest weather will be in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is most likely over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest could turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales at times, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest. Temperatures overall likely to be near or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

This line is intriguing.....

Later in this period, it could turn drier and more settled with a chance of high pressure moving in from the north, bringing brisk easterly winds.  🎅 

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Well the Met office don’t seem too keen on the extended period(14-28 December) with temps “likely to be near or slightly above average”.This seems to be different to the general feel on the Mod Thread where excitement continues to build for events later this week.If past experience is anything to go by don’t expect much changing of words for next 2/3 days tbh,if not a bit longer.This is fair enough as the Models are having enough difficulty what is going to happen at just t + 96 hours atm🤣

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4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Speaking of things UKMO, has anyone read the latest contingency planners 3-monthly?  AKA winter forecast.

frost-covering-a-sunny-field.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Our weather products help contingency planners prepare for and respond to emergencies.

I strongly advise not to bother for two reasons, the first is probably obvious, the second is the new format which is dumbed down to the point no self-respecting contingency planner would even look at it!

Pretty grim that if you want a cold winter!

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