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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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Friday 13 Nov - Sunday 22 Nov

Remaining unsettled for the rest of the week, with some rain expected to push into western parts at the beginning of Thursday and again on Friday. The mild and settled conditions are likely to return for the rest of the weekend and into next week, but often cloudier, with a continued risk of mist and fog, particularly across eastern parts. Any rain and strong winds are likely to be confined to the western areas. Later in the period, high pressure looks to dominate leaving dry and more settled conditions, however occasional unsettled weather cannot be ruled out completely. Temperatures are likely to be at or above average for this time of year, particularly in any brighter spells where it will feel particularly mild.

Monday 23 Nov - Monday 7 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting further west and north of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining mild before possibly turning colder than average into December with risks of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Saturday 14 Nov - Monday 23 Nov

Next weekend is likely to remain unsettled with further rain and wind, particularly in the northwest. Some dry spells are still expected, especially in the south and east. Overall temperatures are likely to be above average for this time of year, so fairly mild with reduced chance of frost. This is expected to continue through most of mid-November, though the length of the dry spells may increase. This is likely to bring temperatures more down to normal. Later in the month, high pressure looks to dominate leaving dry and more settled conditions, however occasional unsettled weather cannot be ruled out completely. Temperatures are likely to start to turn cooler again, with an increased chance of frost.

Tuesday 24 Nov - Tuesday 8 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting further west and north of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining mild before possibly turning colder than average into December with risks of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Sunday 15 Nov - Tuesday 24 Nov

During this period unsettled conditions are likely in the northwest, bringing spells of rain and wind, perhaps strong winds and gales at times. More settled conditions may establish in the southeast and later into central areas where it will be mainly dry and sometimes bright. Temperatures look to be mild and at times very mild at first with a reduced risk of night frosts. There is a chance that drier brighter conditions may extend UK-wide for a time, where fog patches could prove persistent in places. Although uncertain, later during this period temperatures look to turn cooler, closer to the seasonal average with an increased risk of overnight frosts especially in central and south-eastern areas.

Tuesday 24 Nov - Tuesday 8 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate, with settled conditions expected to be more prolonged in central and south-eastern areas. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible, although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting north-western areas of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, feeling mild, before possibly turning colder than average into December with increased risk of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 15 Nov - Tuesday 24 Nov

During this period unsettled conditions are likely in the northwest, bringing spells of rain and wind, perhaps strong winds and gales at times. More settled conditions may establish in the southeast and later into central areas where it will be mainly dry and sometimes bright. Temperatures look to be mild and at times very mild at first with a reduced risk of night frosts. There is a chance that drier brighter conditions may extend UK-wide for a time, where fog patches could prove persistent in places. Although uncertain, later during this period temperatures look to turn cooler, closer to the seasonal average with an increased risk of overnight frosts especially in central and south-eastern areas.

Tuesday 24 Nov - Tuesday 8 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate, with settled conditions expected to be more prolonged in central and south-eastern areas. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible, although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting north-western areas of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, feeling mild, before possibly turning colder than average into December with increased risk of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

"Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, feeling mild"

A little bit odd - "average" overnight lows for me in late November would naturally be around what ... 2-4'C? 

Not so much feeling mild....

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58 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 15 Nov - Tuesday 24 Nov

During this period unsettled conditions are likely in the northwest, bringing spells of rain and wind, perhaps strong winds and gales at times. More settled conditions may establish in the southeast and later into central areas where it will be mainly dry and sometimes bright. Temperatures look to be mild and at times very mild at first with a reduced risk of night frosts. There is a chance that drier brighter conditions may extend UK-wide for a time, where fog patches could prove persistent in places. Although uncertain, later during this period temperatures look to turn cooler, closer to the seasonal average with an increased risk of overnight frosts especially in central and south-eastern areas.

Tuesday 24 Nov - Tuesday 8 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate, with settled conditions expected to be more prolonged in central and south-eastern areas. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible, although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting north-western areas of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, feeling mild, before possibly turning colder than average into December with increased risk of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

🤣🤣🤣🤣

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Monday 16 Nov - Wednesday 25 Nov

During this period unsettled conditions are likely in the northwest, bringing spells of rain and wind, perhaps strong winds and gales at times. More settled conditions may establish in the southeast and later into central areas where it will be mainly dry and sometimes bright. Temperatures look to be mild and at times very mild at first with a reduced risk of night frosts. There is a chance that drier brighter conditions may extend UK-wide for a time, where fog patches could prove persistent in places. Although uncertain, later during this period temperatures look to turn cooler, closer to the seasonal average with an increased risk of overnight frosts especially in central and south-eastern areas.

Wednesday 25 Nov - Wednesday 9 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate, with settled conditions expected to be more prolonged in central and south-eastern areas. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible, although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting north-western areas of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, feeling mild, before possibly turning colder than average into December with increased risk of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Wednesday 18 Nov - Friday 27 Nov

Unsettled weather by Wednesday bringing outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, for the North and the northwestern parts of the country. During the rest of the week unsettled conditions continue with spells of rain followed by brighter, showery interludes. In the northwest, rain, strong winds and gales at times. During late November more settled conditions may establish in central and southeastern areas where it will be mainly dry and sometimes bright. Temperatures look to be mild on Wednesday, but they are likely to return to near the seasonal average by the end of next week, with an increased risk of overnight frosts. There is a chance that drier brighter conditions may extend UK-wide at times. Although uncertain, temperatures are looking to become colder by the end of this period.

Friday 27 Nov - Friday 11 Dec

By the end of November and middle of December it is likely settled conditions could develop more widely with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled interludes are still likely with outbreaks of rain and strong winds mostly affecting northwestern areas of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, before possibly turning colder than average into December with increased risk of overnight frosts. The chance of wintry precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Thursday 19 Nov - Saturday 28 Nov

Unsettled weather by Wednesday bringing outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, for the North and the northwestern parts of the country. During the rest of the week unsettled conditions continue with spells of rain followed by brighter, showery interludes. In the northwest, rain, strong winds and gales at times. During late November more settled conditions may establish in central and southeastern areas where it will be mainly dry and sometimes bright. Temperatures look to be mild on Wednesday, but they are likely to return to near the seasonal average by the end of next week, with an increased risk of overnight frosts. There is a chance that drier brighter conditions may extend UK-wide at times. Although uncertain, temperatures are looking to become colder by the end of this period.

Saturday 28 Nov - Saturday 12 Dec

By the end of November and into the middle of December it is likely settled conditions could become more wildly developed, with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods are still possible with outbreaks of rain and strong winds most likely to affect northwestern areas of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, before possibly turning colder than average into December with an increased risk of overnight frosts. The chance of wintry precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Friday 20 Nov - Sunday 29 Nov

Unsettled weather by Wednesday bringing outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, for the North and the northwestern parts of the country. During the rest of the week unsettled conditions continue with spells of rain followed by brighter, showery interludes. In the northwest, rain, strong winds and gales at times. During late November more settled conditions may establish in central and southeastern areas where it will be mainly dry and sometimes bright. Temperatures look to be mild on Wednesday, but they are likely to return to near the seasonal average by the end of next week, with an increased risk of overnight frosts. There is a chance that drier brighter conditions may extend UK-wide at times. Although uncertain, temperatures are looking to become colder by the end of this period.

Sunday 29 Nov - Sunday 13 Dec

By the end of November and into the middle of December it is likely settled conditions could become more wildly developed, with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods are still possible with outbreaks of rain and strong winds most likely to affect northwestern areas of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining around average at first, before possibly turning colder than average into December with an increased risk of overnight frosts. The chance of wintry precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Saturday 21 Nov - Monday 30 Nov

Spells of rain will spread southwards across England and Wales on Saturday with brighter, showery conditions in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Sunny spells are expected in the south of the UK on Sunday with blustery showers across the north. For the remainder of November conditions will begin to become more widely settled, especially across the south and east where there will be an increased risk of slow clearing fog. Unsettled interludes bringing spells of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures look to be around average with increasing incidence of overnight frost, as is typical for this time of year, as well as bringing an increasing chance of wintry precipitation.

Monday 30 Nov - Monday 14 Dec

Heading into the middle of December, high pressure is likely to become the dominant weather pattern across the UK, bringing settled conditions to many parts. Occasional unsettled periods with outbreaks of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, these most likely to affect northwestern areas of the UK. Temperatures will probably be close to or below average with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation, notably for higher ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Sunday 22 Nov - Tuesday 1 Dec

Sunny spells are expected over central areas of the UK on Sunday with blustery showers across the north. Monday will see generally fine and settled conditions. However, clear spells and light winds provide potential for fog patches and morning frost. For the remainder of November, conditions will begin to become more widely settled, especially across the south and east where there will be an increased risk of slow clearing morning fog. Unsettled interludes bringing spells of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures look to be around average with increasing incidence of overnight frost, as is typical for this time of year, as well as bringing an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over high ground.

Tuesday 1 Dec - Tuesday 15 Dec

Heading into the middle of December, high pressure is likely to become the dominant weather pattern across the UK, bringing settled conditions to many parts, and an increased chance of fog. Occasional unsettled periods with outbreaks of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, these most likely to affect northwestern areas of the UK. Temperatures will probably be close to or below average with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation and overnight frost, notably for higher ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Sunday 22 Nov - Tuesday 1 Dec

Sunny spells are expected over central areas of the UK on Sunday with blustery showers across the north. Monday will see generally fine and settled conditions. However, clear spells and light winds provide potential for fog patches and morning frost. For the remainder of November, conditions will begin to become more widely settled, especially across the south and east where there will be an increased risk of slow clearing morning fog. Unsettled interludes bringing spells of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, especially in the north and west. Temperatures look to be around average with increasing incidence of overnight frost, as is typical for this time of year, as well as bringing an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over high ground.

Tuesday 1 Dec - Tuesday 15 Dec

Heading into the middle of December, high pressure is likely to become the dominant weather pattern across the UK, bringing settled conditions to many parts, and an increased chance of fog. Occasional unsettled periods with outbreaks of rain and strong winds are still likely at times, these most likely to affect northwestern areas of the UK. Temperatures will probably be close to or below average with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation and overnight frost, notably for higher ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Wednesday 25 Nov - Friday 4 Dec

Outbreaks of rain are expected to cross the UK on Wednesday, with western areas receiving the heaviest rain. Blustery heavy showers are also likely to affect the far north of Scotland. Thursday and Friday could see further rainfall and strengthened winds for the north and west, but elsewhere the weather is likely to become more settled and colder, increasing the risks of frosts and morning fog. For the remainder of November and start of December, conditions will likely become more unsettled, with successive weather systems bringing rain and strong winds to the UK. Temperatures look to be around average for this time of year during this period, feeling reasonably cold with snow only likely on mountains, but it will turn mild at times when rain and cloud are present.

Friday 4 Dec - Friday 18 Dec

Heading into the middle of December, the UK's weather it is likely to remain changeable and unsettled, resulting in a mixture of rainy days and days with spells of sunshine and showers. The northwest is expected to receive the most rain and could see gales or severe gales at times. The south of the UK is expected to see the driest and brightest weather during this period, though still seeing rain at times. It will become more settled in the south going into the second half of December, with fog patches and frosts likely. Temperatures will probably be close to or below average with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation, especially over higher ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday 25 Nov - Friday 4 Dec

Outbreaks of rain are expected to cross the UK on Wednesday, with western areas receiving the heaviest rain. Blustery heavy showers are also likely to affect the far north of Scotland. Thursday and Friday could see further rainfall and strengthened winds for the north and west, but elsewhere the weather is likely to become more settled and colder, increasing the risks of frosts and morning fog. For the remainder of November and start of December, conditions will likely become more unsettled, with successive weather systems bringing rain and strong winds to the UK. Temperatures look to be around average for this time of year during this period, feeling reasonably cold with snow only likely on mountains, but it will turn mild at times when rain and cloud are present.

Friday 4 Dec - Friday 18 Dec

Heading into the middle of December, the UK's weather it is likely to remain changeable and unsettled, resulting in a mixture of rainy days and days with spells of sunshine and showers. The northwest is expected to receive the most rain and could see gales or severe gales at times. The south of the UK is expected to see the driest and brightest weather during this period, though still seeing rain at times. It will become more settled in the south going into the second half of December, with fog patches and frosts likely. Temperatures will probably be close to or below average with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation, especially over higher ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Fair forecast looking at the background signals, poor tho

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25 minutes ago, swfc said:

Fair forecast looking at the background signals, poor tho

At least they're tending to go average or below average temperature wise, although that's subject to change.

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Thursday 26 Nov - Saturday 5 Dec

Outbreaks of rain, locally heavy will cross the UK on Wednesday, clearing the far southeast during evening. Brighter conditions with blustery heavy showers follow, most frequent in the northwest. Mostly dry and bright during Thursday with sunny spells, later cloud building in the northwest followed by rain. Towards the weekend it will remain unsettled in the northwest with the risk of strong winds but drier and brighter towards the southeast. Temperatures near normal for the time of the year. For the remainder of November and into the start of December, conditions will likely become more changeable, alternating between spells of rain with strong winds and between brighter but showery conditions. The driest and brightest weather most likely in the southeast. During this period temperatures look to be milder than average.

Saturday 5 Dec - Saturday 19 Dec

Through the first two weeks of December, it is likely to remain changeable and unsettled, resulting in a mixture of rainy, windy days and days with spells of sunshine and showers. The northwest is expected to remain unsettled with frequent spells of rain with gales to severe gales at times. Any drier and brighter weather during this period is most likely in the south and east, though still seeing rain at times. It may become predominantly settled in the south later into the second half of December, with fog patches and overnight frosts likely. Overall temperatures will likely be close to normal for the time of the year, with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over higher ground in the north, as is normal for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 26 Nov - Saturday 5 Dec

Outbreaks of rain, locally heavy will cross the UK on Wednesday, clearing the far southeast during evening. Brighter conditions with blustery heavy showers follow, most frequent in the northwest. Mostly dry and bright during Thursday with sunny spells, later cloud building in the northwest followed by rain. Towards the weekend it will remain unsettled in the northwest with the risk of strong winds but drier and brighter towards the southeast. Temperatures near normal for the time of the year. For the remainder of November and into the start of December, conditions will likely become more changeable, alternating between spells of rain with strong winds and between brighter but showery conditions. The driest and brightest weather most likely in the southeast. During this period temperatures look to be milder than average.

Saturday 5 Dec - Saturday 19 Dec

Through the first two weeks of December, it is likely to remain changeable and unsettled, resulting in a mixture of rainy, windy days and days with spells of sunshine and showers. The northwest is expected to remain unsettled with frequent spells of rain with gales to severe gales at times. Any drier and brighter weather during this period is most likely in the south and east, though still seeing rain at times. It may become predominantly settled in the south later into the second half of December, with fog patches and overnight frosts likely. Overall temperatures will likely be close to normal for the time of the year, with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over higher ground in the north, as is normal for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The 'close to or below average' temperatures have been dropped....

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Friday 27 Nov - Sunday 6 Dec

Brighter, colder conditions with blustery heavy showers for the start of the period, most frequent in the northwest. Drier and more settled conditions during the latter part of the week with overnight frost and some morning fog patches. Still a chance of rain in the northwest and far southeast. Over the weekend, towards the turn of the month, the prevailing weather pattern becomes more uncertain. Outbreaks of rain and stronger winds are more likely in the north and west with drier conditions elsewhere. Temperatures near or a little below average. Into the start of December, conditions will likely become more changeable again, alternating between spells of rain with strong winds and brighter but showery interludes. The driest and brightest weather most likely in the southeast. Temperatures varying around average.

Sunday 6 Dec - Sunday 20 Dec

It is likely to remain changeable through the period, resulting in a mixture of rainy, windy days and brighter, showery interludes. The northwest is expected to remain more unsettled with frequent spells of rain with a risk of gales at times. The best drier and brighter conditions during this period are most likely in the south and east, although these will still see some rain at times. It may become predominantly settled in the south, but the latter part of this period will have morning fog patches and overnight frosts becoming more prevalent. Overall temperatures will likely be close to normal for the time of the year, with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over higher ground in the north, as is normal for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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These outlooks react to daily runs it seems, dropping the idea of settled conditions a couple of days ago, now reverting back to settled.

Post above - outlook today is a settled one, all output is showing this, so perhaps they got it right all along, just the timing a little out..

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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

These outlooks react to daily runs it seems, dropping the idea of settled conditions a couple of days ago, now reverting back to settled.

Post above - outlook today is a settled one, all output is showing this, so perhaps they got it right all along, just the timing a little out..

At that range it will largely be based on the Euro ensembles.

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I'm surprised tbh on how much they change(to what they know) and to what the amateurs know. Their outlook has been copy n paste for a fair few days then a sudden switch.

Just goes to show imo that no one can predict the weather over a week or so.

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