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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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Wednesday 18 Mar - Friday 27 Mar

Wednesday will likely see wet weather moving southeastwards across the UK, with sunshine and showers following behind in the north. Feeling fairly mild in the south, but much colder further north, enhanced by strong winds in the far north. Looking ahead, there is a strong signal for conditions to turn markedly drier and calmer towards the end of March, as high pressure becomes dominant over the UK. This will lead to plenty of sunshine for most, though clear skies by night will lead to some widespread frosts. Temperatures by day are likely to be on the cold side too, but it should feel pleasant in the spring sunshine. Weather fronts may approach the north and west occasionally, increasing cloud amounts, but these will likely be weak affairs with limited rainfall.

Friday 27 Mar - Friday 10 Apr

Generally more widely settled conditions than of late are likely to continue. There will, however, be some interludes of more changeable, windier weather, especially across the north, bringing spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures will be generally near or somewhat above average. However, as is usual when we go into spring, there will be large ranges of temperature at times, giving some frosty nights followed by pleasantly warm days as well as some marked day to day changes in temperature.There is also the possibility of spells of east or northeast winds bringing rather cold, cloudy conditions to eastern parts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Thursday 19 Mar - Saturday 28 Mar

Rain and drizzle should continue to clear southwards through Thursday, becoming restricted to the southwest later in the day. Elsewhere should be brighter with spells of sunshine and the odd blustery shower lingering further north. The dry spells are likely to continue into Friday and Saturday, with some wintry showers over the north and east. Looking further ahead, there is a strong signal for conditions to remain drier and calmer. This will mean plenty of sunshine for most, with clear skies overnight leading to widespread frosts. Day temperatures are likely to be on the cold side too, but feeling pleasant enough in the spring sunshine. Weather fronts may approach the north and west occasionally, increasing cloud amounts, but these are likely to be weak with limited rainfall.

Sunday 29 Mar - Sunday 12 Apr

Generally more widely settled conditions than of late are likely to continue. There will, however, be some interludes of more changeable, windier weather, especially across the north, bringing spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures likely to trend back towards a little above average as we head into April. However, as is usual in spring, there will be a large range in temperatures at times, giving some cold frosty nights followed by some pleasantly warm days, as well as some marked day to day changes in temperature.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Friday 20 Mar - Sunday 29 Mar

Rain continuing to clear the south on Friday. Elsewhere should be largely dry with sunny spells, and possibly a few wintry showers towards the north. Staying cold with widespread frosts overnight across central and northern areas. The drier and colder weather is likely to continue into the weekend with further overnight frosts. Looking further ahead, there is a strong signal for conditions to remain drier and calmer. This will mean plenty of sunshine for most, with clear skies overnight leading to widespread frosts. Day temperatures are likely to be on the cold side too, but feeling pleasant enough in the spring sunshine. Weather fronts may approach the north and west occasionally, increasing cloud amounts, but these are likely to be weak with limited rainfall.

Monday 30 Mar - Monday 13 Apr

Generally more widely settled conditions than of late are likely to continue. There will, however, be some interludes of more changeable, windier weather, especially across the north, bringing spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures likely to trend back towards a little above average as we head into April. However, as is usual in spring, there will be a large range in temperatures at times, giving some cold frosty nights followed by some pleasantly warm days, as well as some marked day to day changes in temperature.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Saturday 21 Mar - Monday 30 Mar

It should be a mostly dry and bright but cold start to the period with widespread frost and patchy fog possible overnight. Turning cloudier with patchy rain and strong winds possible across the far northwest and far southwest at times but any rain and strong wind should ease towards the middle of period. The best of any sunshine across southern and eastern areas. Periods of more unsettled weather are possible across northern parts at times. Further south should see the best of the settled weather but outbreaks of rain and strong winds are still possible at times throughout the period. Temperatures should recover to around average for the time of year towards the end of March.

Monday 30 Mar - Monday 13 Apr

Generally more widely settled conditions than of late are likely to continue. There will, however, be some interludes of more changeable, windier weather, especially across the north, bringing spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures likely to trend back towards a little above average as we head into April. However, as is usual in spring, there will be a large range in temperatures at times, giving some cold frosty nights followed by some pleasantly warm days, as well as some marked day to day changes in temperature.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Sunday 22 Mar - Tuesday 31 Mar

It should be a mostly dry and bright but cold start to the period with widespread frost and patchy fog possible overnight. Turning cloudier with patchy rain and strong winds possible across the far northwest and far southwest at times but any rain and strong wind should ease towards the middle of period. The best of any sunshine across southern and eastern areas. Periods of more unsettled weather are possible across northern parts at times. Further south should see the best of the settled weather but outbreaks of rain and strong winds are still possible at times throughout the period. Temperatures should recover to around average for the time of year towards the end of March.

Wednesday 1 Apr - Wednesday 15 Apr

Generally more widely settled conditions are likely to continue throughout the period bringing longer spells of dry and bright weather with an increased risk of mist and fog overnight. There is still the possiblity for some rain at times, most likely across the northwest. Temperatures should recover to around average for the time of year towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Monday 23 Mar - Wednesday 1 Apr

It should be a mostly dry and bright but cold start to the period with widespread frost and patchy fog possible overnight. Turning cloudier with patchy rain and strong winds possible across the far northwest and far southwest at times but any rain and strong wind should ease towards the middle of period. The best of any sunshine across southern and eastern areas. Periods of more unsettled weather are possible across northern parts at times. Further south should see the best of the settled weather but outbreaks of rain and strong winds are still possible at times throughout the period. Temperatures should recover to around average for the time of year towards the end of March.

Thursday 2 Apr - Thursday 16 Apr

Generally more widely settled conditions are likely to continue throughout the period bringing longer spells of dry and bright weather with an increased risk of mist and fog overnight. There is still the possiblity for some rain at times, most likely across the northwest. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year with the risk of overnight frost likely becoming less towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Tuesday 24 Mar - Thursday 2 Apr

It should be a mostly dry and bright but cold start to the period with widespread frost and patchy fog possible overnight. Turning cloudier with patchy rain and strong winds possible across the far northwest and far southwest at times but any rain and strong wind should ease towards the middle of period. The best of any sunshine across southern and eastern areas. Periods of more unsettled weather are possible across northern parts at times. Further south should see the best of the settled weather but outbreaks of rain and strong winds are still possible at times throughout the period. Temperatures should recover to around average for the time of year towards the end of the period.

Friday 3 Apr - Friday 17 Apr

Generally more widely settled conditions are likely to continue throughout the period bringing longer spells of dry and bright weather with an increased risk of mist and fog overnight. There is still the possibility for some rain at times, most likely across the northwest. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year with the risk of overnight frost likely becoming less towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Wednesday 25 Mar - Friday 3 Apr

Dry and settled conditions should dominate through the end of March and into early April, bringing plenty of bright or sunny spells across the UK, particularly in the south and east. Rain could spread to northwestern areas at times, and perhaps extending to the southeast. There is also a small chance of some showers for eastern areas should a strong easterly flow develop. Winds will be predominantly light, but for north and northwestern regions there could be periods of stronger winds. Mist and fog patches are possible, but these will be quick to clear given the time of year. Temperatures likely around average for the time of year with large diurnal ranges bringing a risk of overnight frosts.

Friday 3 Apr - Friday 17 Apr

Generally more widely settled conditions are likely to continue throughout the period bringing longer spells of dry and bright weather with an increased risk of mist and fog overnight. There is still the possibility for some rain at times, most likely across the northwest. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year with the risk of overnight frost likely becoming less towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Thursday 26 Mar - Saturday 4 Apr

Dry and settled conditions should dominate through the end of March and into early April, bringing plenty of bright or sunny spells across the UK, particularly in the south and east. However, rain is likely to spread to northwestern areas at times, and could develop more widely briefly at times. This unsettled weather could become more widespread across the north towards the end of the period. Winds will be predominantly light, but for north and northwestern regions there could be periods of stronger winds. Mist and fog patches are possible, but these will be quick to clear given the time of year. Temperatures likely around average for the time of year with large diurnal ranges bringing a risk of overnight frosts.

Saturday 4 Apr - Saturday 18 Apr

Longer periods of dry and settled weather are set to continue throughout April, and it will be much drier than recent months. There is still the potential for some rain to push across northwestern areas and weakening as they spread southeastwards. The winds will continue to be light or moderate, and the risk of overnight mist and fog patches will continue. Temperatures around normal but with large diurnal ranges, overnight frosts are likely, but gradually becoming less so towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Friday 27 Mar - Sunday 5 Apr

Dry and settled conditions should dominate through the end of March and into early April, bringing plenty of bright or sunny spells across the UK, particularly in the south and east. However, rain is likely to spread to northwestern areas at times, and could develop more widely briefly at times. This unsettled weather could become more widespread across the north towards the end of the period. Winds will be predominantly light, but for north and northwestern regions there could be periods of stronger winds. Mist and fog patches are possible, but these will be quick to clear given the time of year. Temperatures likely around average for the time of year with large diurnal ranges bringing a risk of overnight frosts.

Monday 6 Apr - Monday 20 Apr

Longer periods of dry and settled weather are set to continue throughout April, and it is likely to be much drier than recent months. During mid-April, there is still the potential for some rain to push across northwestern areas and weakening as they spread southeastwards. The winds will continue to be light or moderate, and the risk of overnight mist and fog patches will continue. Temperatures around normal but with large diurnal ranges, overnight frosts are likely, but gradually becoming less so towards the end of the period. The east and southeast could see some warmer periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 27 Mar - Sunday 5 Apr

Dry and settled conditions should dominate through the end of March and into early April, bringing plenty of bright or sunny spells across the UK, particularly in the south and east. However, rain is likely to spread to northwestern areas at times, and could develop more widely briefly at times. This unsettled weather could become more widespread across the north towards the end of the period. Winds will be predominantly light, but for north and northwestern regions there could be periods of stronger winds. Mist and fog patches are possible, but these will be quick to clear given the time of year. Temperatures likely around average for the time of year with large diurnal ranges bringing a risk of overnight frosts.

Monday 6 Apr - Monday 20 Apr

Longer periods of dry and settled weather are set to continue throughout April, and it is likely to be much drier than recent months. During mid-April, there is still the potential for some rain to push across northwestern areas and weakening as they spread southeastwards. The winds will continue to be light or moderate, and the risk of overnight mist and fog patches will continue. Temperatures around normal but with large diurnal ranges, overnight frosts are likely, but gradually becoming less so towards the end of the period. The east and southeast could see some warmer periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

The Metoffice are not buying into a cold spell next weekend into the start of April at the moment, then.

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13 minutes ago, Don said:

The Metoffice are not buying into a cold spell next weekend into the start of April at the moment, then.

The GFS is - its a stonker and ECM cold as well.

image.thumb.png.67d21762d9c1721c7ecd47da82134d11.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GFS is - its a stonker and ECM cold as well.

image.thumb.png.67d21762d9c1721c7ecd47da82134d11.png

I know but their update today is not suggesting a cold snap.  However, I would expect it to change tomorrow if the models remain bullish.

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

I know but their update today is not suggesting a cold snap.  However, I would expect it to change tomorrow if the models remain bullish.

Would it though,i thought that the Meto had super computers that look into every detail,are they wrong?

maybe the models are leading us up the backside again,we will see.

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11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Would it though,i thought that the Meto had super computers that look into every detail,are they wrong?

maybe the models are leading us up the backside again,we will see.

The models could well be leading us up the garden path and might be overreacting to the SSW perhaps?  We will just have to see but something will have to give soon.

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Saturday 28 Mar - Monday 6 Apr

Dry and settled conditions should dominate through the end of March and into early April, bringing plenty of bright or sunny spells across the UK, particularly in the south and east. However, rain is likely to spread to northwestern areas at times, and could develop more widely briefly at times. This unsettled weather could become more widespread across the north towards the end of the period. Winds will be predominantly light, but for north and northwestern regions there could be periods of stronger winds. Mist and fog patches are possible, but these will be quick to clear given the time of year. Temperatures likely around average for the time of year with large diurnal ranges bringing a risk of overnight frosts.

Tuesday 7 Apr - Tuesday 21 Apr

Longer periods of dry and settled weather are set to continue throughout April, and it is likely to be much drier than recent months. During mid-April, there is still the potential for some rain to push across northwestern areas and weakening as they spread southeastwards. The winds will continue to be light or moderate, and the risk of overnight mist and fog patches will continue. Temperatures around normal but with large diurnal ranges, overnight frosts are likely, but gradually becoming less so towards the end of the period. The east and southeast could see some warmer periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Sunday 29 Mar - Tuesday 7 Apr

Towards the end of March it will be largely dry, however, eastern areas will likely see showers of hail and snow at times, which will accumulate on higher ground and could give some snow and ice to lower levels during the night. A northeasterly wind will keep it cold. High pressure conditions should dominate through the beginning of April, bringing plenty of dry, fine weather with bright or sunny spells across the UK, particularly in West. Winds will be predominantly light, with any breezier weather bringing a significant wind chill, indeed it looks likely to remain colder than average with further chance of snow. Unsettled conditions will tend to gradually become more established from the northwest later, bringing spells of wind and rain.

Wednesday 8 Apr - Wednesday 22 Apr

Following the gradual change to more unsettled conditions, a more typical spring time pattern is expected with a mixture of sunny spells, increasing likelihood of daytime showers, and spells of rain at times. There is very low confidence in any details aside from these broad trends. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly above the seasonal average, with the warmest weather expected in the south and east. Overnight frosts will tend to become much scarcer towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Well, that's the most wintry update I've seen from the Metoffice since winter last year.  Will the models backtrack now the Met are on board?! ?

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Well, that's the most wintry update I've seen from the Metoffice since winter last year.  Will the models backtrack now the Met are on board?! ?

Another example of the met office backtracking eventually. At least on this occasion the outcome is cold and not the other way around.

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Monday 30 Mar - Wednesday 8 Apr

Towards the end of March it will be largely dry, however, eastern areas will likely see showers of hail and snow at times, which will accumulate on higher ground and could give some snow and ice to lower levels during the night. A northeasterly wind will keep it cold. High pressure conditions should dominate through the beginning of April, bringing plenty of dry, fine weather with bright or sunny spells across the UK, particularly in West. Winds will be predominantly light, with any breezier weather bringing a significant wind chill, indeed it looks likely to remain colder than average with further chance of snow. Unsettled conditions will tend to gradually become more established from the northwest later, bringing spells of wind and rain.

Thursday 9 Apr - Thursday 23 Apr

Following the gradual change to more unsettled conditions, a more typical spring time pattern is expected with a mixture of sunny spells, increasing likelihood of daytime showers, and spells of rain at times. There is very low confidence in any details aside from these broad trends. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly above the seasonal average, with the warmest weather expected in the south and east. Overnight frosts will tend to become much scarcer towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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