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Meto Uk Further Outlook

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Friday 15 Nov - Sunday 24 Nov

Friday is likely to be an improvement from the recent unsettled theme, with showers or longer periods of rain pushing away from the southern half of the UK. Drier, sunnier conditions are set to follow, with a few wintry showers over the hills in the northeast. Looking ahead, a return to cold and unsettled weather seems likely with rain/showers and some snow on northern hills. Winds may turn to a more easterly direction, which would lead to more rain in the east and drier conditions for western locations. Overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter periods, which may extend across much of the country from the northwest towards the end of the period. However, spells of wind and rain are still possible across southern parts.

Monday 25 Nov - Monday 9 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low. The strongest winds and more prolonged periods of rain are likely in the south at first. The driest and brightest weather is more likely in the north, especially northeast. However, there is a continued risk of rain and hill snow at times for northern locations. There is a chance that there will be a gradual transition to more unsettled weather in the north, accompanied by periods of strong winds and rain, while the southeast becomes more settled and drier. Temperatures are likely to be below average at the beginning of this period, with the potential for widespread frosts overnight. Temperatures may return to around average for the time of year, but colder periods are possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Quite a turnaround from just over a week ago mentioning mild sw more likely in the extended....................

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Saturday 16 Nov - Monday 25 Nov

Saturday looks to be an improvement from the recent unsettled theme. Showers or spells of rain should push away from the southeast leaving drier and sunnier conditions. Rain looks likely to creep into the west throughout the day, with Northern Ireland and Scotland seeing the worst of the weather. Looking ahead, a return to the unsettled weather seems probable with rain or showers and some snow on northern hills. Winds may turn to a more easterly direction, which could lead to more rain in the east and drier conditions in the west. Overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter spells, which may extend across much of the country towards the end of the period.

Tuesday 26 Nov - Tuesday 10 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low. The strongest winds and more prolonged periods of rain are likely in the south at first. The driest and brightest weather is more likely in the north, especially northeast. However, there is a continued risk of rain and hill snow at times for northern locations. There is a chance that there will be a gradual transition to more unsettled weather in the north, accompanied by periods of strong winds and rain, while the southeast becomes more settled and drier. Temperatures are likely to be below average at the beginning of this period, with the potential for widespread frosts overnight. Temperatures may return to around average for the time of year, but colder periods are possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Reading between the lines these updates don't appear convincing for a return to anything especially mild. Anticyclonic conditions perhaps dominating at the end of the month and into December perhaps focused initially over the UK but then advecting to westwards to allow some colder shots from the north, or the trough squeezing through on a NW-SE aligned jet..

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Sunday 17 Nov - Tuesday 26 Nov

Mist and freezing fog possible under clear skies to start on Sunday. A cloudy, cold day follows with many areas seeing showers through the day. Through the start of next week confidence is very low but some dry, bright and cold weather is likely in places but rain still possible, falling as hill snow at times. Frost and freezing fog possible by night. By the end of next week there may be a switch to more unsettled and relatively milder conditions. This will bring rain for many, but particularly in western areas, and the risk of snow on higher ground accompanied by strong winds. By the end of the period more settled weather is expected for many but remaining unsettled in the west. Temperatures milder than of late.

Wednesday 27 Nov - Wednesday 11 Dec

The start of the period will see some settled weather in the east with rain, strong winds and possibly gales continuing in the west. Through early December confidence remains very low but there could be a period of more settled weather across much of the UK. This will bring drier conditions for many through the day but there will be a chance of frost and fog developing for many areas through the night. Temperatures look to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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So, a change the forecast today with the chance of a milder period later in November, albeit with low confidence.

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18 minutes ago, Don said:

So, a change the forecast today with the chance of a milder period later in November, albeit with low confidence.

Yes, high pressure to the east low out in the west, it means a period of southerlies.

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2 hours ago, karyo said:

Yes, high pressure to the east low out in the west, it means a period of southerlies.

As long as it doesn't lock in for the whole winter period.  Although knowing our luck.......

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Tuesday 19 Nov - Thursday 28 Nov

Heavy rain will spread eastwards across Wales and parts of southern and central England through Tuesday, though northern and eastern areas should remain mostly dry and bright through the day. Towards the end of the week it should turn milder with a risk of prolonged rain likely across western parts with the possibility of some transient hill snow. There is also a risk strong winds and coastal gales. Towards the end of the period strong winds and coastal gales accomanined by rain may continue across western areas with more settled conditions likely to develop in eastern parts. This would bring a risk of frost and fog developing overnight across eastern parts and possibly more widespread later.

Thursday 28 Nov - Thursday 12 Dec

The start of the period will see some settled weather in the east with rain, strong winds and possible gales in the west. Through early December, confidence remains very low but there could be a period of more settled weather across much of the UK. This would bring drier conditions for many through the day with a chance of frost and fog developing overnight. Temperatures look to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Wednesday 20 Nov - Friday 29 Nov

The unsettled weather is set to carry on into next week, as weather systems continue to push in across the UK, bringing a risk of rain and showers for many. It will turn milder than as of late, but it may feel cooler in some stronger winds that accompany any spells of rain. The west and northwest will likely see the best of any drier and more settled weather conditions. There is a greater than normal chance of overnight fog forming in any clearer spells overnight, which could be slow to clear in places. The showers may continue to be wintry over the highest ground bringing some sleet or snow at times. Temperatures are expected to be around average or perhaps slightly milder for the time of year.

Saturday 30 Nov - Saturday 14 Dec

A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Thursday 21 Nov - Saturday 30 Nov

The unsettled weather is set to carry on into next week, as weather systems continue to push in across the UK, bringing a risk of rain and showers for many. It will turn milder than as of late, but it may feel cooler in some stronger winds that accompany any spells of rain. The west and northwest will likely see the best of any drier and more settled weather conditions. There is an above average risk of overnight fog forming in any clearer spells overnight, which could be slow to clear in places. The showers may continue to be wintry over the highest ground bringing some sleet or snow at times. Temperatures are expected to be around average or perhaps slightly milder for the time of year.

Sunday 1 Dec - Sunday 15 Dec

A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Friday 22 Nov - Sunday 1 Dec

The unsettled weather is set to carry on into next week, as weather systems continue to push in across the UK, bringing a risk of rain and showers for many. It will turn milder than as of late, but it may feel cooler in some stronger winds that accompany any spells of rain. The west and northwest will likely see the best of any drier and more settled weather conditions. There is an above average risk of overnight fog forming in any clearer spells overnight, which could be slow to clear in places. The showers may continue to be wintry over the highest ground bringing some sleet or snow at times. Temperatures are expected to be around average or perhaps slightly milder for the time of year.

Monday 2 Dec - Monday 16 Dec

A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Saturday 23 Nov - Monday 2 Dec

The unsettled weather is set to carry on into next week, as weather systems continue to push in across the UK, bringing a risk of rain and showers for many. It will turn milder than as of late, but it may feel cooler in some stronger winds that accompany any spells of rain. The west and northwest will likely see the best of any drier and more settled weather conditions. There is an above average risk of overnight fog forming in any clearer spells overnight, which could be slow to clear in places. The showers may continue to be wintry over the highest ground bringing some sleet or snow at times. Temperatures are expected to be around average or perhaps slightly milder for the time of year.

Tuesday 3 Dec - Tuesday 17 Dec

A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Sunday 24 Nov - Tuesday 3 Dec

Unsettled weather is likely through next as weather systems move east or northeast across the UK, bringing bands of rain across much of the country, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain, which could be heavy at times, seems likely across western and southern areas. Snow is likely on northern hills at times, more especially later in the period. It will often be windy, with gales in places. However it should be generally milder than of late, though still feeling cold at times in bouts of strong winds or rain. Confidence becomes relatively low by early December but there is a chance of some quieter, drier colder spells with patchy fog and night frost.

Wednesday 4 Dec - Wednesday 18 Dec

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the period with weather systems bringing bouts of rain and strong winds across the UK from the west or southwest, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain seems more likely in northwestern parts of the UK with longer drier spells likely across the south and east. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly over high ground. Some quieter, drier, colder spells are also likely, giving night frosts and some fog. These may occur more frequently in the early part of this period but confidence for this aspect is very low. However temperatures for the most part are expected to be near or above average, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Monday 25 Nov - Wednesday 4 Dec

Sunny spells and scattered, blustery showers on Monday with rain in the far north. Remaining unsettled through the rest of next week as weather systems move east or northeast across the UK, bringing bands of rain, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain, possibly heavy at times, seems likely across western and southern areas and it will often be windy, with gales in places. Snow is likely on northern hills at times, more especially later in the period. It should be generally milder than of late, though still feeling cold at times in bouts of strong winds or rain. Confidence becomes relatively low by early December but there is a chance of it turning colder again with frost/fog in the North and unsettled weather persisting further south.

Thursday 5 Dec - Thursday 19 Dec

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the period with weather systems bringing bouts of rain and strong winds across the UK from the southwest, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain seems more likely in western parts of the UK with longer drier spells likely across the east. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly over high ground. Some quieter, drier, colder spells are also likely, giving night frosts and some fog. These may occur more frequently in the north in the early part of this period but confidence for this aspect is very low. However temperatures for the most part are expected to be near or slightly above average, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Subtle shifts in tone suggesting perhaps more of a polar influence than tropical maritime influence predominating, also more mention of snow..

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Tuesday 26 Nov - Thursday 5 Dec

Colder to start Tuesday with rain spreading from the west, although many staying dry. Remaining unsettled through the rest of next week as weather systems move east or northeast across the UK, bringing bands of rain, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain, possibly heavy at times, seems likely across western and southern areas and it will often be windy, with gales in places. Snow is likely on northern hills at times, more especially later in the period. It should be generally milder than of late, though still feeling cold at times in bouts of strong winds or rain. Confidence becomes relatively low by early December but there is a chance of it turning colder again with frost/fog in the North and unsettled weather persisting further south.

Friday 6 Dec - Friday 20 Dec

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the period with weather systems bringing bouts of rain and strong winds across the UK from the southwest, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain seems more likely in western parts of the UK with longer drier spells likely across the east. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly over high ground. Some quieter, drier, colder spells are also likely, giving night frosts and some fog. These may occur more frequently in the north in the early part of this period but confidence for this aspect is very low. However temperatures for the most part are expected to be near or slightly above average, for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Seem contradictory some of it imo.

A couple of weeks ago there was no mention of snow for this period.

Dont think you can forecast the weather more than a week in advance so pretty useless these extended forecasts for me.

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5 hours ago, joggs said:

Seem contradictory some of it imo.

A couple of weeks ago there was no mention of snow for this period.

Dont think you can forecast the weather more than a week in advance so pretty useless these extended forecasts for me.

Yes it is a contradictory hedging bets sort of forecast.. cold weather at times, some snow in the north, but probably average or just above.. suggests to me no clear signal, however, this may well be the correct phrasing.. 

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Wednesday 27 Nov - Friday 6 Dec

Wednesday looks set to be a continuation of the wet theme, though rain may become lighter and push away to the southeast of the UK later. Temperatures around average in the south, but beginning to turn colder in the North. Next weekend looks likely to be rather unsettled, with some sunny spells and showers, which could often be wintry, even to low ground in the north. Cold or rather cold in the north, with widespread frost and ice likely, but perhaps mild for a time in the far south and southwest. The following week looks set to remain cold for many, as the potential for wintry showers in the north continues and may spread to higher ground in the south. The best chance of dry weather in the south/southeast.

Saturday 7 Dec - Saturday 21 Dec

The period is likely begin on the cold side for most regions, with snow showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are likely to continue to be a hazard. There is likely to be change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change will likely bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and south east. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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The 2nd half of the period 7 Dec to 21st Dec seems to indicate a visit from the Azores or mid-Atlantic High (take your pick on what you call it).

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58 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

The 2nd half of the period 7 Dec to 21st Dec seems to indicate a visit from the Azores or mid-Atlantic High (take your pick on what you call it).

Hopefully mid atlantic high allowing for some polar incursions and setting the stall for something potent in time for christmas.

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Thursday 28 Nov - Saturday 7 Dec

Thursday looks to be unsettled with areas of rain or showers initially. The rain may become lighter and patchier later allowing for some bright spells to develop. Temperatures around average in the south, but beginning to turn colder in the north. Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, with some sunny spells and showers, which could turn wintry even to low ground in the north. Cold or rather cold in the north, with widespread frost and ice likely, but perhaps mild for a time in the far south and southwest. The beginning of December looks to remain cold for many, as the potential for wintry showers in the north continues and may spread to higher ground in the south. The best chance of dry weather in the south/southeast.

Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec

The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change looks likely to bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and southeast. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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