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Stuart

Meto Uk Further Outlook

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16 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

I find it interesting how the models we look at change so much from run to run and  day to day yet the met office updates in the 6 to 15 day range hardly change at all, and that also goes for the extended longer range..and I wish they would stop saying cooler for the far north next week, with minus 7 uppers it would be cold dammit!!😜

Could you imagine if they changed their 6-15 day outlook every run that would be a fun read from extreme blizzards to blowtorch heat on the same day!:oldp: but I do get both sides to this little debate. 🙂

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9 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

I find it interesting how the models we look at change so much from run to run and  day to day yet the met office updates in the 6 to 15 day range hardly change at all, and that also goes for the extended longer range..and I wish they would stop saying cooler for the far north next week, with minus 7 uppers it would be cold dammit!!😜

Only a small bit of the data is freely available to the public. We can only see the operationals of the model output, which can swing wildly, unless we pay for the ensemble which are often much more consistent. 

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Thursday 7 Nov - Saturday 16 Nov

Thursday will be mixed with showers or longer spells of rain for some. It will be windy for some with wintry showers on northern hills. Temperatures may stay below average for this time of year bringing the risk of frost and ice. Looking further ahead, the unsettled theme continues with further outbreaks of rain for most parts interspersed with drier and brighter spells. The far north may become drier and colder at times. The changeable weather is likely to clear southeastwards towards the end of the week leaving more settled weather for a time. While confidence is low for the end of this period, temperatures are likely to be back to near average by mid November.

Sunday 17 Nov - Sunday 1 Dec

Through mid to late November, confidence remains very low. The period may start more settled with cold, dry weather and widespread overnight frosts. More changeable conditions may occur in the latter part of the period in alignment with a switch to more frequent west and southwesterly winds over the UK. This could bring more unsettled weather, especially to western parts where there could be the possibility of gales. The east looks like it may see the best of any drier weather, though probably staying windy. Although temperatures are more likely to be below average at the start of the period, they are expected to become near average towards the end of the month with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 7 Nov - Saturday 16 Nov

Thursday will be mixed with showers or longer spells of rain for some. It will be windy for some with wintry showers on northern hills. Temperatures may stay below average for this time of year bringing the risk of frost and ice. Looking further ahead, the unsettled theme continues with further outbreaks of rain for most parts interspersed with drier and brighter spells. The far north may become drier and colder at times. The changeable weather is likely to clear southeastwards towards the end of the week leaving more settled weather for a time. While confidence is low for the end of this period, temperatures are likely to be back to near average by mid November.

Sunday 17 Nov - Sunday 1 Dec

Through mid to late November, confidence remains very low. The period may start more settled with cold, dry weather and widespread overnight frosts. More changeable conditions may occur in the latter part of the period in alignment with a switch to more frequent west and southwesterly winds over the UK. This could bring more unsettled weather, especially to western parts where there could be the possibility of gales. The east looks like it may see the best of any drier weather, though probably staying windy. Although temperatures are more likely to be below average at the start of the period, they are expected to become near average towards the end of the month with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

No real change there......

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4 hours ago, Don said:

No real change there......

Key words that keep being repeated is 'confidence is very low'... 

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40 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Key words that keep being repeated is 'confidence is very low'... 

These forecasts are pretty mundane as we’ve seen in the past like last winter when the predicted cold spell late on never came

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Friday 8 Nov - Sunday 17 Nov

On Friday outbreaks of rain will slowly clear away southeastwards with brighter conditions extending to many northern and western areas. However, there may be some wintry showers in the northeast. After a brief quieter, drier interlude on Saturday with night frost, more unsettled, possibly windy weather will return from the west bringing more rain. This unsettled theme will probably continue through next weekend into the first part of the following week with snow likely at times on northern hills. Although confidence is currently low, there are signs that there may be some longer drier, brighter interludes developing, bringing more widespread night frosts. It will remain colder than average for most parts, although by mid November we may see temperatures returning to near average as further bouts of unsettled weather occur.

Monday 18 Nov - Monday 2 Dec

Through mid to late November, confidence remains very low. The period may start more settled with cold, dry weather and widespread overnight frosts. More changeable conditions may occur in the latter part of the period in alignment with a switch to more frequent west and southwesterly winds over the UK. This could bring more unsettled weather, especially to western parts where there could be the possibility of gales. The east looks like it may see the best of any drier weather, though probably staying windy. Although temperatures are more likely to be below average at the start of the period, they are expected to become near average after mid-November with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Saturday 9 Nov - Monday 18 Nov

Saturday should start cold and frosty for most, with patches of fog expected in central and eastern England, which may be slow to clear. A band of rain and cloud is expected to move eastwards across the country into the evening, bringing strengthening winds for most and potential hill snow in the north. Sunday and Monday will most likely continue to be unsettled, and this theme will probably remain throughout the following week. Looking ahead to the later part of the period, although confidence is currently low, some snow is possible in the north, mainly over the hills, whilst the heaviest rainfall is likely to be concentrated across central and southern England. For most parts, it will remain colder than average throughout this period.

Tuesday 19 Nov - Tuesday 3 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains very low. The period may start more settled with cold, dry weather and widespread overnight frosts. More changeable conditions may occur in the latter part of the period in alignment with a switch to more frequent west and southwesterly winds over the UK. This could bring more unsettled weather, especially to western parts where there could be the possibility of gales. We can expect any rain to be heaviest across central and southern areas, with an ongoing risk of snow over hills in the north. There is also potential for stormy periods, and we currently expect temperatures to be below average until the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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That's a nice switch in the outlook but after last year's fiasco, it is best to remain cautious.

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3 hours ago, karyo said:

That's a nice switch in the outlook but after last year's fiasco, it is best to remain cautious.

Yes,

Anyone for a winter Barbie?  Only joking.  

Time to get the winter tyres on.

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On 02/11/2019 at 22:33, prolongedSnowLover said:

These forecasts are pretty mundane as we’ve seen in the past like last winter when the predicted cold spell late on never came

 

6 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Below normal temperatures for autumn looking more certain now! 👍

  1. Doesn't show what I want. Ignore it.
  2. Shows what I want. It's correct!

🤪

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

 

  1. Doesn't show what I want. Ignore it.
  2. Shows what I want. It's correct!

🤪

And what would be your forecast for the rest of November then.............😜

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8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

 

  1. Doesn't show what I want. Ignore it.
  2. Shows what I want. It's correct!

🤪

From my calculations I can only come to this conclusion that this autumn will finish with below normal temperatures as we are already running below normal and the forecast for the next 10 days is average to below average. Take what you may from this.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Sunday 10 Nov - Tuesday 19 Nov

Sunday should be bright with scattered showers, potentially becoming prolonged spells of rain. It is likely to be another cold day, with a chance of wintry showers on the higher ground of the north. Sunday and Monday will most likely continue to be unsettled with showers expected in all regions, bringing potential hill snow to the north, whilst the heaviest rainfall is likely to be concentrated across central and eastern England. Looking ahead to the later part of the period, although confidence is currently low, snow is possible in the north over the hills, whilst the concentration of heaviest rainfall should continue to be located across central and southern England. There is a potential for occasional stormier periods. For most parts, it will remain colder than average throughout this period.

Wednesday 20 Nov - Wednesday 4 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains very low. The period may start with unsettled conditions, with the rain and wind expected to be more prevalent in the northwest of the UK. There is a likelihood that fog and frost could become more widespread than earlier in November, particularly in the south and east of England, with the fog potentially clearing slowly into the mornings. Throughout this period, there are indications that there could be a slow transition into more settled weather, especially in the south and east of England. This could mean that temperatures may return close to the average by the end of the month, although it could still be rather cold at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Slightly different wording for the very extended, think it needs a few more days or so for continuity (imo)

Still happy with my forecast for November: colder and wetter than average. (cet thread)

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Throughout this period, there are indications that there could be a slow transition into more settled weather, especially in the south and east of England. This could mean that temperatures may return close to the average by the end of the month, although it could still be rather cold at times.

Seems like a possibility of a Euro High to establish, maybe or the Azores High to nudge in.

Edited by Bristle boy

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2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Throughout this period, there are indications that there could be a slow transition into more settled weather, especially in the south and east of England. This could mean that temperatures may return close to the average by the end of the month, although it could still be rather cold at times.

Seems like a possibility of a Euro High to establish, maybe or the Azores High to nudge in.

Yes, quite a change in their extended forecast and yes, sounds like a Euro or extended Azores High with no suggestion of northern blocking.

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Monday 11 Nov - Wednesday 20 Nov

Another cold start on Monday with frost in central and eastern parts. Rain across Northern Ireland which will spread east erratically throughout the day, with the occasional heavier burst. There is also a possibility of hill snow across Scotland. The west may also experience strong winds with gales possible. The rest of the working week looks to remain rather cold and unsettled, with rain or showers for many as well as some snow over high ground in the north. Occasional stormier periods are possible in the south. Some overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter interludes. Towards the end of the period, more settled weather may become established in the south, as rain and stronger winds are displaced further northwest.

Thursday 21 Nov - Thursday 5 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains very low. The period may start with unsettled conditions, with the rain and wind expected to be more prevalent in the northwest of the UK. There is a likelihood that fog and frost could become more widespread than earlier in November, particularly in the south and east of England, with the fog potentially clearing slowly into the mornings. Throughout this period, there are indications that there could be a slow transition into more settled weather, especially in the south and east of England. This could mean that temperatures may return close to the average by the end of the month, although it could still be rather cold at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Tuesday 12 Nov - Thursday 21 Nov

On Tuesday, there will be sunshine and blustery showers for most, with some hail possible. There may also be some sleet at lower levels across the North, along with possible hill snow from North Wales northwards. Strong winds for many, with gales possible in the northwest, which will make it feel cold. The rest of the working week looks set to remain rather cold and unsettled, with rain or showers for many as well as some snow over high ground in the north. Occasional stormier periods are possible in the south. Some overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter interludes. Towards the end of the period, more settled weather may become established in the south, with more widespread fog and frost as rain and stronger winds are displaced northwest.

Friday 22 Nov - Friday 6 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains very low. The period may start with unsettled conditions, with the rain and wind expected to be more prevalent in the northwest of the UK. There is a likelihood that fog and frost could become more widespread than earlier in November, particularly in the south and east of England, with the fog potentially clearing slowly into the mornings. Throughout this period, there are indications that there could be a slow transition into more settled weather, especially in the south and east of England. This could mean that temperatures may return close to the average by the end of the month, although it could still be rather cold at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Wednesday 13 Nov - Friday 22 Nov

Wednesday will be breezy with plenty of showers around in the west but drier further east. The blustery showers may ease briefly, before more organised heavy rain showers, some of these wintry over hills, move in. Many southern and eastern locations will remain dry and sunny, but some showers are likely. The end of the week will probably remain cold and unsettled, with rain/showers and some snow on northern hills. Winds may turn to a more easterly direction, which would lead more rain in the east and drier conditions for western locations. Overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter periods, which may extend across much of the country from the northwest towards the end of the period. However, spells of wind and rain are still possible across southern parts.

Saturday 23 Nov - Saturday 7 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low. The strongest winds and more prolonged periods of rain are likely in the south at first. The driest and brightest weather is more likely in the north, especially northeast. However, there is a continued risk of rain and hill snow at times for northern locations. There is a chance that there will be a gradual transition to more unsettled weather in the north, accompanied by periods of strong winds and rain, while the southeast becomes more settled and drier. Temperatures are likely to be below average at the beginning of this period, with the potential for widespread frosts overnight. Temperatures may return to around average for the time of year, but colder periods are possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Thursday 14 Nov - Saturday 23 Nov

Thursday is likely to be a continuation of the recent unsettled theme, with showers or longer periods of rain for some, especially in the southern half of the UK. The best chance of sunshine will be in sheltered northeastern areas. The end of the week will probably remain cold and unsettled, with rain/showers and some snow on northern hills. Winds may turn to a more easterly direction, which would lead more rain in the east and drier conditions for western locations. Overnight frost and fog is likely during quieter periods, which may extend across much of the country from the northwest towards the end of the period. However, spells of wind and rain are still possible across southern parts.

Sunday 24 Nov - Sunday 8 Dec

Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low. The strongest winds and more prolonged periods of rain are likely in the south at first. The driest and brightest weather is more likely in the north, especially northeast. However, there is a continued risk of rain and hill snow at times for northern locations. There is a chance that there will be a gradual transition to more unsettled weather in the north, accompanied by periods of strong winds and rain, while the southeast becomes more settled and drier. Temperatures are likely to be below average at the beginning of this period, with the potential for widespread frosts overnight. Temperatures may return to around average for the time of year, but colder periods are possible in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Not even once do they mention the mild word in there outlook . That will do for now . 

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