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Stuart

Meto Uk Further Outlook

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Monday 28 Oct - Wednesday 6 Nov

The start of next week will see mainly dry and bright spells with plenty of sunshine across most of the UK. On Monday, widespread frost will develop away from the coastal areas of Northern Ireland, northern Scotland and eastern England where a few showers are likely to continue. Further ahead, northern areas may see some colder outbreaks leading to overnight frosts and some showers may turn wintry over the hills. However, in the south it may be milder overall. Despite uncertainty at this time, as we move into November, it is possible that drier, more settled spells will continue with temperatures near or a little below average. This could bring night frosts as well as the risk of patchy fog at times.

Thursday 7 Nov - Thursday 21 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain is most likely to be confined to western areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods with rain or showers may be possible too bringing milder spells. These, however, are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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That is a fantastic update cool days and frosty nights just like Autumn should be

C.S

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Monday 28 Oct - Wednesday 6 Nov

The start of next week will see mainly dry and bright spells with plenty of sunshine across most of the UK. On Monday, widespread frost will develop away from the coastal areas of Northern Ireland, northern Scotland and eastern England where a few showers are likely to continue. Further ahead, northern areas may see some colder outbreaks leading to overnight frosts and some showers may turn wintry over the hills. However, in the south it may be milder overall. Despite uncertainty at this time, as we move into November, it is possible that drier, more settled spells will continue with temperatures near or a little below average. This could bring night frosts as well as the risk of patchy fog at times.

Thursday 7 Nov - Thursday 21 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain is most likely to be confined to western areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods with rain or showers may be possible too bringing milder spells. These, however, are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

That's what i like to hear.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's what i like to here.

"Hear"

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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

"Hear"

Sorry quick typing whilst doing dinner,corrected now.

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's what i like to hear.

Yes, it looks to me like a shift in opinion over the last few days from a return to Atlantic domination after the Greenland high sinks, to a greater likelihood of blocked conditions persisting in some form up to late Nov.  Bank!

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14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, it looks to me like a shift in opinion over the last few days from a return to Atlantic domination after the Greenland high sinks, to a greater likelihood of blocked conditions persisting in some form up to late Nov.  Bank!

Hmmmm, BBC monthly today is pretty much the opposite!!

Talk of wind and rain as we move through Nov..

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27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm, BBC monthly today is pretty much the opposite!!

Talk of wind and rain as we move through Nov..

Yes. Will UK Meto prove correct or Meteogroup (BBC contractor)? Having said that the UK Meto summary is its usual "ifs" and "maybes"; their comms exec and his/her boss are showing the usual external comms ambiguity they obviously hone at Uni. Seen it all in my ex-industry; the art of corporate BS.

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Tuesday 29 Oct - Thursday 7 Nov

Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells across most of the UK. However, more unsettled conditions accompanied by rain and stronger winds may move into southern parts around the middle of next week, perhaps extending north across more of the UK for a time. However, later next week, brighter weather will probably develop from the north but with showers, which could be wintry in the north. At the start of November, things become very uncertain, but we may begin to have some more unsettled spells again with further bouts of wind and rain in many parts. It will be generally colder than average for the time of year with night frosts probably becoming widespread during quieter drier spells. Temperatures may rise to near normal at times in the south.

Friday 8 Nov - Friday 22 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain is most likely to be confined to western areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods with rain or showers may be possible too, bringing milder spells. These, however, are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Well then, unless the second half of November sees temps widely into the 80s fahrenheit, countrywide, the MetO's Autumn forecast is heading for the toilet...?:oldgrin:

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The first 2 months of autumn have been milder than average, so why would we need a balmy spell for the predictions of a milder than average autumn to be correct?

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19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The first 2 months of autumn have been milder than average, so why would we need a balmy spell for the predictions of a milder than average autumn to be correct?

Have they though ? October is currently running just below average and is definitely likely to finish below average. September was only 0.3c above average. The first week of November is looking to start below average from the previous runs.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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31 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Have they though ? October is currently running just below average and is definitely likely to finish below average. September was only 0.3c above average. The first week of November is looking to start below average from the previous runs.

Slightly above average for both months in Warwickshire according to my figures but expect October to finish below, now.

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On 23/10/2019 at 16:55, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm, BBC monthly today is pretty much the opposite!!

Talk of wind and rain as we move through Nov..

There were big differences between the forecasts last winter, too.

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5 hours ago, MattStoke said:

The first 2 months of autumn have been milder than average, so why would we need a balmy spell for the predictions of a milder than average autumn to be correct?

Its been a very near average autumn so far temps wise, though I suspect southern parts might have seen something a bit more above the average for September - as the mean average figure is the average for the CET zone, and doesn't necessarily reflect much of the UK. In the northern half of the Uk, we are running a bit below average this month, and could end up with something a bit lower than usual.

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Wednesday 30 Oct - Friday 8 Nov

Wednesday will probably start mainly dry with sunny spells across most of the UK. However, more unsettled conditions accompanied by rain and stronger winds will probably move into southwestern parts during the day, perhaps extending north across more of the UK on Thursday. However, later next week, brighter weather may develop from the north but with showers, which could be wintry in the north. By this time things become very uncertain. However, the first part of November will probably have some unsettled spells again with further bouts of wind and rain in many parts. It will be generally colder than average for the time of year with night frosts probably becoming widespread during quieter drier spells. Temperatures may rise to near normal at times, more especially in the south.

Friday 8 Nov - Friday 22 Nov

The first half of November should be mostly settled and dry for the majority of the UK with plenty of sunny spells. Although there is significant uncertainty for this period, any rain is most likely to be confined to western areas. It seems probable that temperatures will be a little below average with the potential of frosts and fog patches forming overnight. Despite the mainly settled outlook, more changeable periods with rain or showers may be possible too, bringing milder spells. These, however, are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Thursday 31 Oct - Saturday 9 Nov

On Thursday there will probably be a return of wet and windy weather moving in from the west. However, there is a lot of uncertainty of the timing of the breakdown, with a small chance that more settled conditions could hang on for the east. For next weekend and early next week, unsettled wet and windy conditions may return to all parts, however, there is low confidence during this period. The first part of November will probably have some unsettled spells again with further bouts of wind and rain in most parts. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, or slightly below, with night frosts probably becoming widespread during quieter drier spells.

Sunday 10 Nov - Sunday 24 Nov

Through this period confidence is low. However, unsettled conditions look more likely, giving showers or longer spells of rain, with snow likely at times on high ground, especially in the north. Some more settled spells are possible, with driest conditions most likely to be in the north and northwest of the UK. Through mid to late November we may see a change to more frequent west or southwesterly winds with wetter conditions in the west and drier spells in the east. Although temperatures may be below average at first, they are expected to become near average through mid to late November, with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 31 Oct - Saturday 9 Nov

On Thursday there will probably be a return of wet and windy weather moving in from the west. However, there is a lot of uncertainty of the timing of the breakdown, with a small chance that more settled conditions could hang on for the east. For next weekend and early next week, unsettled wet and windy conditions may return to all parts, however, there is low confidence during this period. The first part of November will probably have some unsettled spells again with further bouts of wind and rain in most parts. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, or slightly below, with night frosts probably becoming widespread during quieter drier spells.

Sunday 10 Nov - Sunday 24 Nov

Through this period confidence is low. However, unsettled conditions look more likely, giving showers or longer spells of rain, with snow likely at times on high ground, especially in the north. Some more settled spells are possible, with driest conditions most likely to be in the north and northwest of the UK. Through mid to late November we may see a change to more frequent west or southwesterly winds with wetter conditions in the west and drier spells in the east. Although temperatures may be below average at first, they are expected to become near average through mid to late November, with more in the way of mild spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Oh dear, I do not like the sound of the last part of that forecast.  Would not be a good sign for early winter if it came off like that.  I know this is what some are concerned about with a strengthening vortex forecast.

Edited by Don

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7 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear, I do not like the sound of the last part of that forecast.  Would not be a good sign for early winter if it came off like that.  I know this is what some are concerned about with a strengthening vortex forecast.

Looks like it has turned for the wetter too. Just what we need...not!

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like it has turned for the wetter too. Just what we need...not!

I just hope we don't don't get a 2013/14 repeat.  People might say that cold and snow is bad, but snow does not destroy homes like flood waters do!

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Lots of rain in the forecast, seems to me Exeter have moved towards the BBC monthly.

Fingers crossed this is not the start of a raging Atlantic for the forseeable!!

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Lots of rain in the forecast, seems to me Exeter have moved towards the BBC monthly.

Fingers crossed this is not the start of a raging Atlantic for the forseeable!!

I think if I remember correctly, the BBC monthlies were more accurate than the Metoffice 16-30 day forecasts last winter?

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1 hour ago, Don said:

I just hope we don't don't get a 2013/14 repeat.  People might say that cold and snow is bad, but snow does not destroy homes like flood waters do!

Pretty sure that 2013/14 produced some incredible conditions for the Scottish ski centres. I'd gladly settle for that again. 👍

Just checked and it was the same time as the Sochi winter Olympics. 

 

Glenshee-Caenlochan-28-Jan14-1280x720.jpg

Edited by Sceptical

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