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Meto Uk Further Outlook

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13 minutes ago, Don said:

Their latest contingency forecast suggests a high probability of a warm or very warm autumn, so if September comes out around average, October and November will have to be pretty warm!

So now that means below average then the  complete opposite .

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1 hour ago, abbie123 said:

So now that means below average then the  complete opposite .

We shall see.  The weather has rather taken the mick out of forecasts this year, particularly early on!

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Thursday 12 Sep - Saturday 21 Sep

On Thursday, there will be wet and windy weather at times, with a risk of coastal gales in the north. The weather through the remainder of the period is likely to be rather changeable. There will be more periods of rain on the way, but these will be interspersed with drier and brighter interludes from time to time, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there will be gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times.

Sunday 22 Sep - Sunday 6 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably be unsettled with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, in between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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They keep banging on about unsettled weather and GFS/EC both showing high pressure in charge as we move through next week???

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

They keep banging on about unsettled weather and GFS/EC both showing high pressure in charge as we move through next week???

Models maybe struggling with the track of Ex-Hurricane Dorian?

The met office have put a video up on Twitter showing wind and rain for all parts at some stage during Tuesday & Wednesday

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Met Office have developed or use plenty of models we don't get to see, IIRC, so it may be the case that they are divided as to whether we'kk be under a ridge of high pressure by next weekend as the main two models show.

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Friday 13 Sep - Sunday 22 Sep

Friday is likely to be dry and bright in the south, but windy with blustery showers in the north. The dry and bright conditions are likely to spread further north for next weekend, leaving just the far north with wetter and windier weather. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but chilly nights in the south may cause some early morning fog. By Sunday, daytime temperatures in the south could be somewhat warmer. The predominantly dry and bright weather may continue into the following week for much of the UK, though the far north is likely to keep more wind and rain. By the end of the week the situation becomes quite uncertain and there will be an increasing chance of wet and windy weather spreading southwards.

Monday 23 Sep - Monday 7 Oct

Confidence remains low during this period. However, the most likely situation is unsettled with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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A bit of a change and a bit more in line with what the models are showing.

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3 hours ago, karyo said:

A bit of a change and a bit more in line with what the models are showing.

Yes, it was bound to happen.

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Sunday 15 Sep - Tuesday 24 Sep

The middle of September is likely to be widely settled and dry with light winds and plenty of sunshine, especially in the south of the UK. There will be a greater chance for windier conditions, some rain and a few showers in the north, particularly for northern Scotland. Temperatures are expected to be near average by day, although warm in the southeast at first, and cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations. Away from the north, which may remain more changeable, the settled conditions are likely to extend through the period with temperatures remaining near normal for the time of year, with warm days offset by chilly nights and a chance for some patchy fog during the early morning.

Wednesday 25 Sep - Wednesday 9 Oct

Confidence remains low for late September and early October. However, the most likely situation is for a more changeable pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Monday 16 Sep - Wednesday 25 Sep

The middle of September is likely to be widely settled and dry with light winds and plenty of sunshine, especially in the south of the UK. There will be a greater chance for windier conditions, some rain and a few showers in the north, particularly for northern Scotland. Temperatures are expected to be near average by day, although warm in the southeast at first, and cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations. Away from the north, which may remain more changeable, the settled conditions are likely to extend through the period with temperatures remaining near normal for the time of year, with warm days offset by chilly nights and a chance for some patchy fog during the early morning.

Thursday 26 Sep - Thursday 10 Oct

Confidence remains low for late September and early October. However, the most likely situation is for a more changeable pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Tuesday 17 Sep - Thursday 26 Sep

Tuesday starts cloudy with some drizzle in the south. This will gradually clear with sunny spells developing for most, although showers are likely in the north. The rest of the week sees predominantly settled conditions across the UK, with any wet and windy weather confined to the far north. There'll be some warm sunshine by day, but some chilly nights with overnight fog patches possible. This weather pattern is likely to continue through the rest of the period, with drier and more settled conditions probable for many, especially across the south, while any windier conditions with rain or showers most likely across the north. Temperatures are expected to be around average, although warm in the southeast at first, and cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations.

Friday 27 Sep - Friday 11 Oct

Confidence remains low for late September and early October, however it is likely that the more settled conditions will prevail until the end of September, with any wet and windy weather largely confined to the north, although this could move further southeast at times. Moving into October the most likely situation seems to be a return towards a more changeable weather pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are most likely remain close to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north, and with a risk of frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Wednesday 18 Sep - Friday 27 Sep

A chilly start on Wednesday, with any fog soon clearing to leave a dry day with sunny periods, although the extreme northwest may be cloudier with patchy rain. The rest of the week sees predominantly settled conditions across the UK, with any wet and windy weather confined to the far north. There'll be some warm sunshine, but some chilly nights, with overnight fog patches possible. This weather pattern is likely to continue through the rest of the period, with drier and more settled conditions probable for many, especially across the south, while any windier conditions with rain or showers most likely across the north. Temperatures are expected to be around average, and possibly warm in the south at first, but cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations.

Saturday 28 Sep - Saturday 12 Oct

Confidence remains low for the end of September and into October, however it is likely that the more settled conditions will prevail until the end of September, with any wet and windy weather largely confined to the north, although this could move further southeast at times. Moving into October the most likely situation seems to be a return towards a more changeable weather pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are most likely remain close to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north, and with a risk of frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Thursday 19 Sep - Saturday 28 Sep

Dry and bright weather is expected to dominate on Thursday and Friday. Daytime temperatures are likely to be warm for most, and perhaps very warm in the southeast. There could be chilly nights though, with overnight fog patches. Any wet and windy weather will be confined to the far northwest. Over the weekend, cooler, unsettled weather will move in from the west, continuing into the start of next week. The situation beyond next Tuesday is uncertain, but the most likely situation is for southeastern UK to stay fairly dry, with warm daytime temperatures. Low night temperatures are likely, bringing an increased chance of mist, fog or even frost. Meanwhile, the northwest of the UK is more likely to keep stronger winds with heavier rain at times, and lower daytime temperatures.

Sunday 29 Sep - Sunday 13 Oct

Confidence remains low for the end of September and into October, and a number of different weather scenarios are possible. However the most likely situation is for southeastern UK to stay on the dry side of average, with daytime temperatures fairly warm for the time of year. Low temperatures are likely during many of the nights, bringing an increased chance of mist, fog and ground frost. Meanwhile, the northwest of the UK is more likely to keep stronger winds with heavier rain at times, and lower daytime temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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The above suggest a generally westerly flow with the jet aligned on a typical west-east path just to the north of the UK, and high pressure from the azores ridging into southern parts for most of the time..

All rather zzzzz.... 

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Friday 20 Sep - Sunday 29 Sep

Dry, sunny and warm weather is expected to dominate on Friday and Saturday with any wet and windy weather confined to the far northwest. Overnight temperatures will be on the cool side for many bringing a chance for some patchy mist and fog, especially in the south. By Sunday cooler, unsettled weather is expected to move in from the west and herald a spell of rather changeable weather for part of the working week. There is a degree of uncertainty as we head towards the last weekend of September. On balance we should see a northwest to southeast split in the weather with the strongest winds and heaviest spells of rainfall in the northwest, and the best of the dry, warm, and sunny weather in the southeast.

Monday 30 Sep - Monday 14 Oct

Confidence remains low through this period and a number of different weather scenarios are possible. However the most likely situation is for southeastern parts of the UK see the best of the dry weather with daytime temperatures fairly warm for the time of year. Low temperatures are likely during many of the nights, bringing an increased chance of mist, fog and ground frost. Meanwhile, the northwest of the UK is more likely to keep stronger winds with heavier rain at times. It will be cloudier in the northwest leading to lower daytime temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Saturday 21 Sep - Monday 30 Sep

Dry, sunny and warm weather is expected for many on Saturday after patchy mist and fog clears in the morning. There is a chance of thicker cloud and outbreaks of heavy rain arriving in the west during the afternoon with strengthening winds. By Sunday cooler, wet and windy weather is likely to spread east, bringing a spell of rather changeable weather into the following week. There is some uncertainty as we head towards the last week of September. On balance we should see a northwest to southeast split in the weather with the strongest winds and heaviest spells of rainfall in the northwest, and the best of the dry, warm, and sunny weather in the southeast, still with some rain at times.

Tuesday 1 Oct - Tuesday 15 Oct

Confidence remains low through this period and a number of different weather scenarios are possible. However the most likely situation is for southeastern parts of the UK see the best of the dry weather with daytime temperatures fairly warm for the time of year. Low temperatures are likely during many of the nights, bringing an increased chance of mist, fog and rural frost. Meanwhile, the northwest of the UK is more likely to keep stronger winds with heavier rain at times. It will be cloudier in the northwest leading to lower daytime temperatures here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Sunday 22 Sep - Tuesday 1 Oct

After a mostly fine start to the weekend, unsettled weather in the west will probably spread to eastwards to affect most areas on Sunday, with outbreaks of rain, which may be heavy at times. With this, winds will strengthen too with the risk of gales in the west and north and it will feel cooler here too. Thereafter, as we look ahead into the final week of September changeable weather is likely to dominate for many, with the northwest probably seeing the strongest winds and heaviest rain. In contrast, southeastern areas may see longer spells of drier and brighter weather, but with the chance of some rain too, although confidence in the forecast becomes low.

Wednesday 2 Oct - Wednesday 16 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However the most likely situation is for a northwest/southeast split. Northwestern areas will probably continue to see spells of wet and windy weather with occasional brighter and showery interludes. Temperatures will be on the cooler side here too. Meanwhile southeastern parts of the UK are more likely to see the best of the dry weather with daytime temperatures fairly warm for the time of year. However, overnight in the southeast it will turn chilly bringing an increased chance of mist, fog and rural frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Monday 23 Sep - Wednesday 2 Oct

The final week of September will start dry for most with Monday seeing the longest spells of sunshine in the east. Further west cloud, rain and strengthening winds will push in, especially later in the day and overall temperatures will be fresher than recent days. Thereafter, unsettled weather is likely to dominate for many at first with frontal systems bringing spells of rain and the potential for gales, particularly in the west and north. Temperatures will be close to normal, but in any drier spells, days may be warmer than average whilst nights cooler than average. Confidence in the forecast reduces towards the turn of the month, but there is the potential for some more widely settled weather to become established across the country.

Thursday 3 Oct - Thursday 17 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However early October may continue to see some fine and settled weather with bright days, but mist, fog and increasingly some frost overnight. Northern parts of the country may continue to see some rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather this will bring warmer days and cooler nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Tuesday 24 Sep - Thursday 3 Oct

The final week of September will see showers or longer spells of rain become more dominant. Tuesday will see some heavy showers, particularly across the southwest where it will be windy with the risk of gales too. Some sunny spells are likely though and it will remain rather warm in the east, but elsewhere feeling cooler than of late. Thereafter, frontal systems will push in bringing spells of rain and the potential for gales, particularly in the west and north. Temperatures will be close to normal, but in any drier spells, days may be warmer than average whilst nights cooler than average. Confidence in the forecast reduces towards the turn of the month, but there is the potential for some more widely settled weather to become established across the country.

Friday 4 Oct - Friday 18 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However early October may continue to see some fine and settled weather with bright days, but mist, fog and increasingly some frost overnight. Northern parts of the country may continue to see some rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather this will bring warmer days and cooler nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Wednesday 25 Sep - Friday 4 Oct

Through the rest of September, we will see a mixture of changeable days with sunny spells in between showers, and days with grey skies and more persistent rainfall. It is likely to be windy at times, with the potential for gales, particularly in the west and southwest. Temperatures will be close to normal, but in any drier spells, they may be warmer than average. Into the start of October, it is most likely that we will see a continuation of the changeable weather, although this is not certain yet. We could also see a return of more settled weather for the southeast, but still in the northwest it may remain unsettled with wind and rain.

Saturday 5 Oct - Saturday 19 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However early October may bring some fine and settled weather with bright days, but mist, fog and increasingly some frost overnight. Northern and western parts of the country may continue to see some rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather this will bring warmer days and cooler nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Thursday 26 Sep - Saturday 5 Oct

Rain and strong winds will spread eastwards across the UK on Thursday, with gales possible in the north and west. It will stay unsettled for the end of September, with a mixture of some sunny days, and cloudier days with more persistent rainfall. It is likely to be windy at times, with the potential for gales, particularly in the west and southwest. Temperatures will vary around normal, but in any drier spells, they may be warmer than average. Into the start of October, it is most likely that we will see a continuation of the changeable weather, although this is not certain yet. We could also see a return of more settled weather for the southeast, but still, in the northwest, it may remain unsettled, with wind and rain.

Sunday 6 Oct - Sunday 20 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However, early October may bring some fine and settled weather. This would bring bright days, but with the increasing risk of overnight mist, fog and some frost. Northern and western parts of the country may continue to see some rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, this will bring warmer days and cooler nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Friday 27 Sep - Sunday 6 Oct

Draft Friday is likely to be a windy day in most places with sunshine and showers. Gales are possible on western coasts and hills. The heaviest showers will probably in the west while some eastern places may avoid most of the showers. Next weekend is also likely to be rather windy with sunshine and heavy showers affecting much of the UK. It will probably stay changeable for the rest of the period with a mixture of some sunny days, and cloudier days with more persistent rainfall. It is likely to be windy at times, with the potential for gales, particularly in the west and southwest. Temperatures will vary around normal, but in any drier spells, they may be warmer than average.

Monday 7 Oct - Monday 21 Oct

Confidence in the forecast remains low through this period. However, early October may bring spells of fine and settled weather, particularly in the south and east of the UK. These would bring bright days, but with the increasing risk of overnight mist, fog and some frost. Northern and western parts of the country may continue to see rain at times, and this might spread across the rest of the country as we go through October. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and cooler nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Never heard of 'Draft Friday' before!

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