Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This may help to illustrate what John is saying. The 925mb wind field for midday Thursday and two forecast soundings

gfs-uk-z925_speed-1636800.thumb.png.3c93874944c6490a70786848ecb62858.png641815885_sounding1.thumb.png.1f19e37558dd3deda753fbd38a506d7c.png628831137_sounding2.thumb.png.3e133aec58a6319c8624eb9ee164e0ea.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
27 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Met office app doesn't really show any heatwave for Manchester. Maxes of 23 to 25C all week.

I suspect 25deg is quite a bit above average for June  for manchester?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Friday 28 June - Sunday 7 July

Friday looks set to stay dry, sunny, hot and humid in the south and east, with the risk of some isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms in the north and west. By the weekend and into the following week, confidence is low, with uncertainty in the possibility of a breakdown to fresher conditions gradually spreading in from the west. Thereafter, as we go into early July the most likely scenario is for a continuation for very warm/hot and potentially thundery weather possible for parts of the UK. There is likely to be occasional spells of dry and fine weather. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm or hot spell of weather at the start of the period.

Monday 8 July - Monday 22 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic weather fronts nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather across the northwest with showers or longer spells of rain. However the south and east would see more in the way of drier weather, although thundery showers are still possible at times. Temperatures during this time are more likely to be slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

The 1st paragraph looks a bit contradictory to me?

That said, its a great update with the favoured outcome the azores high ridging in bringing temps slightly above average.,

 

Edited by northwestsnow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Saturday 29 June - Monday 8 July

On Saturday a band of showery rain, with the risk of thunder, will spread erratically from the west, introducing fresher conditions. The hot and humid conditions will likely be confined to the east on Sunday. By Monday,the fresher conditions will spread to all areas. It will likely stay drier across the south and southeast though. Thereafter, as we go into early July the most likely scenario is for a continuation for warm or very warm, locally hot, and potentially thundery, weather possible for parts of the UK. There is likely to be occasional spells of dry and fine weather. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm or hot spell of weather at the start of the period.

Tuesday 9 July - Tuesday 23 July 

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic frontal systems nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather over southern and southwestern parts of the UK, with some rain or showers. However, the north and east would see more in the way of drier and settled weather. Temperatures during this period are likely to be around or slightly above normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

So now they say that the low close to the southwest will bring unsettled weather to southern and southwestern areas which makes more sense. Before they were thinking it would be the northwest.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Sunday 30 June - Tuesday 9 July

Sunday will be fresher than of late, with sunny spells and occasional showers. The showers will be heaviest in the northwest, where there will be a risk of thunderstorms and coastal gales. However southeastern areas will stay dry, warm and humid. By Monday, the fresher conditions will spread to all areas. It will likely stay drier across the south and southeast though. Thereafter, as we go into early July the most likely scenario is for a continuation for warm or very warm, perhaps locally hot, and potentially thundery, weather possible for parts of the UK. There is likely to be occasional spells of dry and fine weather though. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm or hot spell of weather at the start of the period.

Wednesday 10 July - Wednesday 24 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic frontal systems nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather over southern and southwestern parts of the UK, with some rain or showers. However, the north and east would see more in the way of drier and settled weather. Temperatures during this period are likely to be around or slightly above normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Monday 1 July - Wednesday 10 July

By Monday, fresher and less warm weather will spread to all areas. The north of the UK will probably be rather wet and windy but southern parts are likely to be drier. Winds and rain will probably ease on Tuesday and Wednesday, apart from the far south, where it may become more breezy for at time. Most of the UK is likely to have some warm sunshine on those days, though it is not expected to be as warm as this week. Over the following days, the most likely scenario is for mainly dry, bright and warm weather to continue though there is no special signal for particularly hot temperatures. Early morning mist or short-lived wetter and windier weather are also likely at times.

Thursday 11 July - Thursday 25 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period, though some wind and rain is likely at times. This could well continue later into July, perhaps with some hot weather spreading from the continent at times. However, the situation is very uncertain by then. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tuesday 2 July - Thursday 11 July

There will be showers in the north on Tuesday, with fine and dry conditions in the south. Most of the UK is likely to have some warm sunshine over the next few days, though it is not expected to be as hot as this week. It will be often dry and sunny for many eastern and southern areas, with the cloudiest conditions and likelihood of spells of rain across the north and northwest. Into next weekend confidence falls low. However, the most likely scenario is for mainly dry, bright and warm weather to continue, with warm temperatures mostly in the south and east but some cool nights will be possible too. Short-lived wetter and windier weather will also be likely at times, mainly in the north or northwest.

Friday 12 July - Friday 26 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July, perhaps with some hot weather spreading from the continent at times. However, the situation is very uncertain by then. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

HUGE difference between Exeter and the BBC monthly outlook!

BBC monthly absolutely convinced about a very unsettled month, Exeter not so sure, still leaning to mainly settled 1st half of July.

144 hour time period absolutely critical for the 1st half of July- will the troughing break through the 'gap' and head towards the UK?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wednesday 3 JUly - Friday 12 July 

Often dry and sunny for many southern and eastern parts of the UK, with the likelihood for spells of rain and strong winds across northwestern parts for the start of July. There is an increasing signal for high pressure to become dominant as we go further into the period. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are likely to be across the UK. Generally, it looks like a broadly fine and settled spell of weather for many towards the middle of the month. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm or warm for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights, whilst temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the northwest, but still feeling warm here at times.

Saturday 13 July - Saturday 27 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July, perhaps with some hot weather spreading from the continent at times. However, the situation is very uncertain by then. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
On 27/06/2019 at 13:35, northwestsnow said:

HUGE difference between Exeter and the BBC monthly outlook!

BBC monthly absolutely convinced about a very unsettled month, Exeter not so sure, still leaning to mainly settled 1st half of July.

144 hour time period absolutely critical for the 1st half of July- will the troughing break through the 'gap' and head towards the UK?

Think a more settled first half of July is nailed on to be honest, there might be some showers and a few days of light PPN, but overall PPN levels will be below average out to at least 13th July in my opinion.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Thursday 4 July - Saturday 13 July

Often dry and sunny for many southern and eastern parts of the UK, with the greatest likelihood for spells of rain likely to be across northern and northwestern parts for the start of July. There is an increasing signal for high pressure to become dominant as we go further into the period. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are likely to be across the UK. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights expected under clearer skies, whilst temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the north and northwest, but it will still feel warm here at times.

Sunday 14 July - Sunday 28 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July. However, the situation is very uncertain. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Friday 5 June - Sunday 14 July

Not updated

Monday 15 July - Monday 29 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July. However, the situation is very uncertain. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Friday 5 June - Sunday 14 July

Friday will be dry and sunny for southern and eastern parts of the UK. It will be a cloudier day for northern and northwestern parts with a risk of some isolated showery outbreaks. Winds will be light. As we head through early July there is a good signal for high pressure to become dominant. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are most likely. However, by and large, conditions should be generally fine and settled with warm temperatures for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights expected under clearer skies. Temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the north and northwest, but it will still feel warm here at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Saturday 6 July - Monday 15 July

Early cloud in the south on Saturday should soon clear leaving sunny spells. Breezy in the east, with perhaps a few showers, but generally dry across the rest of the UK. By Sunday there's a risk of some thundery showers in the southwest, with settled weather continuing elsewhere. Temperatures near normal for most, but locally rather cool in the north. Through the second week of July there is likely to be a good deal of fine and settled weather, however the north and northwest may be cloudy and breezy with spells of rain at times. Temperatures could be warm at times across many central, southern and eastern areas, although some cool nights are expected under any clearer skies.

Tuesday 16 July - Tuesday 30 July

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, bringing us a good deal of fine and settled weather, and with any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Sunday 7 July - Tuesday 16 July

This period will start with predominantly dry and warm weather in the south, but a slightly more changeable look further north, with occasional rain or showers and breezier conditions. By midweek, a slightly more unsettled spell of weather looks most likely, with sunny spells and showers. Some of these could be heavy and thundery, accompanied by stronger winds at times, especially in the south, compared to the start of the period. Temperatures will be on the warm side in central and southern parts, but closer to average further north. Towards mid July, there is an emerging signal that high pressure will re-establish itself close to the southwest of the UK, bringing a return to fine, settled weather here, but further showers are likely in the north and northwest.

Wednesday 17 July - Wednesday 31 July

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, probably anchored to the west or southwest of the UK, meaning a good deal of fine and settled weather, and any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Sunday 8 July - Wednesday 17 July

This period will start with predominantly dry and warm weather in the south, but a slightly more changeable look further north, with occasional rain or showers and breezier conditions. By midweek, a slightly more unsettled spell of weather looks most likely, with sunny spells and showers. Some of these could be heavy and thundery, accompanied by stronger winds at times, especially in the south, compared to the start of the period. Temperatures will be on the warm side in central and southern parts, but closer to average further north. Towards mid July, there is an emerging signal that high pressure will re-establish itself close to the southwest of the UK, bringing a return to fine, settled weather here, but further showers are likely in the north and northwest.

Thursday 18 July - Thursday 1 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, probably anchored to the west or southwest of the UK, meaning a good deal of fine and settled weather, and any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a poor show when they think sunday is the 8th of July!!

 

They have just forgot to change the day from sunday to monday.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...