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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Feb 2019 to Thursday 28 Feb 2019:

A cold start to Tuesday with any fog patches clearing to sunny spells. However, it is likely to cloud over from the northwest, with rain and strong winds across the north later. The rest of the week is likely to remain settled across the UK, with cloud and rain becoming increasingly restricted to the far north of the UK. Daytime temperatures will be around normal, mild for some, but some overnight fog and rural frost is likely. The rest of the month looks set to continue with generally settled theme, with the continued risk of overnight frost and fog. However, some unsettled spells of weather may push into the far west at times, with stronger winds and some rain possible. Temperatures should remain around or a touch above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 1 Mar 2019 to Friday 15 Mar 2019:

Confidence is low during this period, but to begin with we are likely to see Atlantic weather fronts affecting the west and northwest, with these perhaps making some progress across the country. These will occasionally bring rain to some places, however with higher pressure remaining close to the east of the UK we are more likely to see a continuation of drier than average conditions, especially in the south and east. As we go through March, more of a southeasterly wind may develop, which could bring colder air from the continent across the UK. As frontal systems then come against this, there is a small risk for some snow. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average, but with the continued chance of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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To be fair, they are getting closer, it started with north to north easterly winds, changed to easterly, now south easterly...give it a week and they will cotton on to the southerly flow !

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

It will probably stay dry and bright in southern and eastern areas of the UK on Wednesday, although cloud and some rain, with strong winds may affect northern and western parts. The drier and brighter conditions may well extend further north and west through Thursday and Friday. The settled and quiet weather looks set to remain into the weekend, especially across the south and east. Any fronts that make it further east will probably tend to weaken. However, there is a small chance that a more active frontal system could make it across to eastern areas, which may bring a low risk of some temporary snow. Temperatures are most likely to be mild overall, but with a small chance of a colder spell developing in the east later.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Mar 2019 to Saturday 16 Mar 2019:

As we go into March we are likely to continue to see Atlantic frontal systems mainly affecting northern and western parts, but these occasionally getting further east across the rest of the UK as more active features. However, many southern and eastern parts of the UK should remain predominantly settled throughout. Any snow looks most likely to be confined to higher ground in the north, although there remains a small chance of snow to low-levels elsewhere, should a continental easterly airflow develop. Temperatures are likely to remain mild overall, although some shorter cold spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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With temperatures today touching 16 degrees above freezing, just a reminder of what the Meto long ranger was on the 26th January------>>>

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Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

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Horrendously wrong.

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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

With temperatures today touching 16 degrees above freezing, just a reminder of what the Meto long ranger was on the 26th January------>>>

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Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

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Horrendously wrong.

You beat me to it mate. I was just reading through those old forecasts from last month. I was about to say that only this day last week they were predicting possible snow showers for Eastern England today ish. Now I know its not an exact science but come on!!!! ?

 

Edited by Wimbledon88
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20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

With temperatures today touching 16 degrees above freezing, just a reminder of what the Meto long ranger was on the 26th January------>>>

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Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

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Horrendously wrong.

Shockingly wrong!

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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

With temperatures today touching 16 degrees above freezing, just a reminder of what the Meto long ranger was on the 26th January------>>>

----------------------------------------------------------

Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

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Horrendously wrong.

Spot on. I certainly won’t pay any attention to the meto long ranger or background signals next year. Been woeful 

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15 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Spot on. I certainly won’t pay any attention to the meto long ranger or background signals next year. Been woeful 

I don't expect these forecasts to be 100% correct, not even 70 or 80% correct, but kind of point us in a direction of travel, I certainly don't expect them to be soooo monumentally  wrong though, especially at a 2 to 3 week timeframe. I mean, this forecast compared to the actual outcome points to a complete an utter failure of whatever prediction methods they use.

Back to the drawing board.

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14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I don't expect these forecasts to be 100% correct, not even 70 or 80% correct, but kind of point us in a direction of travel, I certainly don't expect them to be soooo monumentally  wrong though, especially at a 2 to 3 week timeframe. I mean, this forecast compared to the actual outcome points to a complete an utter failure of whatever prediction methods they use.

Back to the drawing board.

Well whatever they are using it ain’t to good but yes, their accuracy should be better than what was  currently on offer this year. 

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just been explaining to my daughter,  why my winter prediction went so horribly wrong! ?

I think the models were caught out as much as the forecasters themselves, what with the ‘promising’ background signals! 

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UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Feb 2019 to Saturday 2 Mar 2019:

Many places will stay dry with sunny spells on Thursday and Friday. The far west and northwest is likely to be cloudier and breezier, with some rain and drizzle. Temperatures will widely be above the seasonal average, but sometimes they will be tempered in the north and west by the wind. Towards the end of Februarary and beinging of March, there will probably be a good deal of dry and bright weather across the south and east, but morning fog is likely here. It will be more changeable in the northwest, with the risk of gales, although some drier interludes are possible here. Temperatures are most likely to be mild overall, but overnight frosts will be likely, with a small chance of a colder spell developing in the east later.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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