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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 12 Mar 2019:

Confidence is very low during this period, with no strong signals for either very unsettled weather or prolonged blocking and cold. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and should help to give some temporary settled spells of weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which may give some snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That basically covers everything.... 

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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I will be surprised if the cold option still features in tomorrow’s update, following tonight’s EC46 update.

Edited by Don
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UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2019:

Sunday will be mostly cloudy and dry for England and Wales, whilst western Scotland and Northern Ireland will see outbreaks of rain, which may spread to most places during Monday. It will be breezy for many, away from the south and southeast where lighter winds will lead to some fog patches. Through next week, this pattern is likely to remain similar with outbreaks of rain, pushing into the west and northwest. Eastern and southeastern areas will often be drier, but some rain is still possible here at times. Winds will be strongest towards the northwest and for most it will be mild, although occasionally colder conditions may filter across northern parts. There is a small chance it may turn drier more widely across England and Wales later.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2019:

Confidence is low during this period, but to begin with we are likely to see Atlantic weather fronts affecting the northwest, with these perhaps making more progress across the country. This will occasionally bring rain more widely, however with higher pressure remaining close to the east of the UK we may see a continuation of drier than average conditions, especially in the south and east. As we go through March, more of a southeasterly wind may develop, which could bring colder air from the continent across the UK. As frontal systems then come against this, there is the potential for some snow. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average, but with the continued chance of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2019:

Sunday will be mostly cloudy and dry for England and Wales, whilst western Scotland and Northern Ireland will see outbreaks of rain, which may spread to most places during Monday. It will be breezy for many, away from the south and southeast where lighter winds will lead to some fog patches. Through next week, this pattern is likely to remain similar with outbreaks of rain, pushing into the west and northwest. Eastern and southeastern areas will often be drier, but some rain is still possible here at times. Winds will be strongest towards the northwest and for most it will be mild, although occasionally colder conditions may filter across northern parts. There is a small chance it may turn drier more widely across England and Wales later.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Snow gone from outlook.

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27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2019:

Confidence is low during this period, but to begin with we are likely to see Atlantic weather fronts affecting the northwest, with these perhaps making more progress across the country. This will occasionally bring rain more widely, however with higher pressure remaining close to the east of the UK we may see a continuation of drier than average conditions, especially in the south and east. As we go through March, more of a southeasterly wind may develop, which could bring colder air from the continent across the UK. As frontal systems then come against this, there is the potential for some snow. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average, but with the continued chance of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Still mentions the possibility of colder spells, but they are forever being pushed back, as per the trend this winter.

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17 minutes ago, Don said:

Still mentions the possibility of colder spells, but they are forever being pushed back, as per the trend this winter.

Well, lets hope it works better for them than it has us!

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

It's gone from the short term outlook, but appears in the longer range, also be interesting if we can build upon that very positive 6z run 

That’s the trouble, though, it always gets pushed back to the longer range.

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

That’s the trouble, though, it always gets pushed back to the longer range.

Just wonder if the 6z is the start of a new trend, could be lead up the garden path, but hopefully we have something in sight 

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just wonder if the 6z is the start of a new trend, could be lead up the garden path, but hopefully we have something in sight 

Hopefully it will, but I won’t be getting my hopes up for a while.  It will be interesting to see if it can save that towel this Sunday! ?

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Hopefully it will, but I won’t be getting my hopes up for a while.  It will be interesting to see if it can save that towel this Sunday! ?

Oh yes, Sunday towel throwing day!! If these charts still showing it by weekend, perhaps we can refrain for a couple of extra days! ?

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I think it's safe to say now that it's all over as far as any meaningful cold spell goes. I know it's only 12th Feb but both the medium and longish term forecasts smack of Euro-slug dominated weather.... And we know how that can hang around and scupper things.

Far better if we had a mobile Atlantic pattern in place, at least for folk up north,might get something out of transient colder spells. 

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UK Outlook for Monday 18 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Outbreaks of rain should clear to the east on Monday, with brighter weather following. Some showers are likely and these could be heavy, especially in the north. Thereafter there is lower confidence but it is most likely that a spell of more settled weather will arrive from Tuesday and should last for much of next week. Western and northwestern parts are likely to be cloudier with some rain and stronger winds. Daytime temperatures will be around normal, mild for some, but some overnight fog and rural frost is likely. The rest of the month looks likely to bring some further unsettled spells in the far west, with some rain perhaps pushing further eastwards across the UK. Temperatures should remain around or a touch above average for February.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Feb 2019 to Thursday 14 Mar 2019:

Confidence is low during this period, but to begin with we are likely to see Atlantic weather fronts affecting the west and northwest, with these perhaps making some progress across the country. These will occasionally bring rain to some places, however with higher pressure remaining close to the east of the UK we are more liltle to see a continuation of drier than average conditions, especially in the south and east. As we go through March, more of a southeasterly wind may develop, which could bring colder air from the continent across the UK. As frontal systems then come against this, there is a small risk for some snow. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average, but with the continued chance of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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35 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Feb 2019 to Thursday 14 Mar 2019:

Confidence is low during this period, but to begin with we are likely to see Atlantic weather fronts affecting the west and northwest, with these perhaps making some progress across the country. These will occasionally bring rain to some places, however with higher pressure remaining close to the east of the UK we are more liltle to see a continuation of drier than average conditions, especially in the south and east. As we go through March, more of a southeasterly wind may develop, which could bring colder air from the continent across the UK. As frontal systems then come against this, there is a small risk for some snow. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average, but with the continued chance of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This update perhaps maybe covers all basis and potentially probably still managers to sit on the fence maybe.

Edited by lassie23
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