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It really feels like we didn't get a winter this year. Just a continuation of Autumn with every month above average.

The wait for next winter will feel even longer as a result. 

Next year I will not be following the stratosphere or the net office updates. Just focus on the operational output till 144 hours and that's it. Too much time wasted for very little in return.

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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33 minutes ago, karyo said:

 

Next year I will not be following the stratosphere or the net office updates. Just focus on the operational output till 144 hours and that's it. Too much time wasted for very little in return.

I bet you will! ?

 

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

?

They have done it again, lulled us into chase and took it away one day later, not surprising though, the backtrack on the ensembles over the last 2 runs, definately game over now.

 

been game over since October lol

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7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

?

They have done it again, lulled us into chase and took it away one day later, not surprising though, the backtrack on the ensembles over the last 2 runs, definately game over now.

 

I think I've finally realised that you're actually joking whenever you say these things lol, and if not then you definitely need help haha

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1 minute ago, Rambo said:

I think I've finally realised that you're actually joking whenever you say these things lol, and if not then you definitely need help haha

its quasi serious now, when you even hear bluearmy and nick sussex say they are going to give it until the end of the week to see if the phase 8 MJO hemispheric composites look like verifying then you know its close, although there are reasons why i would never actually completely give in until April, although blocking in winter might be game over, you can just get lucky with a continuous snow event, in fact unless you get the ridiculous mid level profile of last March, i would rather have a runner or frontal event as even if its marginal, if heavy juicy flakes it will stick, with showers they just melt, i am not one of these who needs it to stick around for days, although i like to be out in it when it falls so that is less likely in the daytime at that time of year but you don't need blocking, so in short until its impossible to get a heavy bout of continuous snow giving a dumping, then i will always take a look at the output.

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All over the place in a word - symptomatic of significant uncertainty for how things may evolve through second half of February - sudden subtle short term developments will make the difference - with very fine margins between cold and mild.

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35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

its quasi serious now, when you even hear bluearmy and nick sussex say they are going to give it until the end of the week to see if the phase 8 MJO hemispheric composites look like verifying then you know its close, although there are reasons why i would never actually completely give in until April, although blocking in winter might be game over, you can just get lucky with a continuous snow event, in fact unless you get the ridiculous mid level profile of last March, i would rather have a runner or frontal event as even if its marginal, if heavy juicy flakes it will stick, with showers they just melt, i am not one of these who needs it to stick around for days, although i like to be out in it when it falls so that is less likely in the daytime at that time of year but you don't need blocking, so in short until its impossible to get a heavy bout of continuous snow giving a dumping, then i will always take a look at the output.

Snow is an ever present possibility well into April as we all know, those spring switcharounds are notorious and often have occured on the back of relatively snowless mild winters - far too many talk about. Never discount snow until May I say, and even then it can occur. The last day of April 2016, yes 30 April ! brought snowfall with temperatures at 0 degrees at lunchtime here on the back of one of the mildest winters on record! I will keep reminding people of this when they call off chance of snow at this stage in the year.

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34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Snow is an ever present possibility well into April as we all know, those spring switcharounds are notorious and often have occured on the back of relatively snowless mild winters - far too many talk about. Never discount snow until May I say, and even then it can occur. The last day of April 2016, yes 30 April ! brought snowfall with temperatures at 0 degrees at lunchtime here on the back of one of the mildest winters on record! I will keep reminding people of this when they call off chance of snow at this stage in the year.

I think when you get to 30th of April though that is too late for a right dumping, 24th (ish) April 1981 is the latest a countrywide proper dumping has ever occurred, and that was not a once in a generation event, it was a once in ridiculous amount of time event, probably April's equivalent of January 1987, a slushy inch doesn't float my boat any more, but yes, you are right, the chances of even a proper event, do not diminish as quick as people on the model thread make out, even for the South, however, i respect bluearmy's view that even a dumping doesn't float his boat if its gone within 24 hours (as that is down to personal choice), which it usually is once you get significantly into Spring.

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I would definately expect them to confirm game over for the meteorological winter and the first 5 or so days of March on this update later.

 

They get worse with every run.

image.thumb.png.cc34c81290e4d996160e8f3b3bb0daf7.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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19 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Winter is not over yet..

Winter hasn’t even started here yet ! Worst winter ever so cannot wait to see the back of it. I’m looking for heat now. Seen one shower of snow all winter. Horrific! SSW and background signals! Never again 

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UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Sunday 24 Feb 2019:

A band of rain is expected to move slowly eastwards across the west of the UK during Friday and Saturday, weakening as it does so. Otherwise, the weekend will be mainly fine and settled, with sunny spells, once any early morning low cloud and fog clears. It will be mild by day, but nights will be chilly with a risk of frost in the south. Little overall change is expected through the start of the following week, although temperatures will return to normal, notably across the south and east. Thereafter there is increasing uncertainty, although there is likely that some wet and windy weather will arrive from the west, whilst high pressure to the northeast continues to give many parts dry weather, perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 25 Feb 2019 to Monday 11 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and this should help to give plenty of settled weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which may give some snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Sunday 24 Feb 2019:

A band of rain is expected to move slowly eastwards across the west of the UK during Friday and Saturday, weakening as it does so. Otherwise, the weekend will be mainly fine and settled, with sunny spells, once any early morning low cloud and fog clears. It will be mild by day, but nights will be chilly with a risk of frost in the south. Little overall change is expected through the start of the following week, although temperatures will return to normal, notably across the south and east. Thereafter there is increasing uncertainty, although there is likely that some wet and windy weather will arrive from the west, whilst high pressure to the northeast continues to give many parts dry weather, perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Hmm, still going for the chances of snow, with high pressure to the north east, albeit with lots of uncertainty.  Can't see that coming off as it stands.......

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Feb 2019 to Monday 11 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and this should help to give plenty of settled weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which may give some snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

No change then.

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7 minutes ago, Don said:

Hmm, still going for the chances of snow, with high pressure to the north east, albeit with lots of uncertainty.  Can't see that coming off as it stands.......

This is exactly what Jon hammond of weather trending is also pointing out, so I am definitely still giving it some credence. My glass is still half full, maybe next week it will become half empty! 

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UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

The weekend is likely to be changeable and rather cloudy, with outbreaks of rain making slow progress across the UK. The rain heaviest over the hills in the west, but generally light in the east. For many it will be mild, but feeling rather cold at times in the northwest where it will be windy with a risk of gales. Early next week likely to remain similar, with further bands of rain slowly and erratically moving eastwards. Temperatures will be generally around or just above normal, but northwestern areas turning colder at times. Thereafter uncertainty increases, although the most likely scenario is that some wet and windy weather will arrive from the west, although there is a chance of some colder weather, with perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 12 Mar 2019:

Confidence is very low during this period, with no strong signals for either very unsettled weather or prolonged blocking and cold. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and should help to give some temporary settled spells of weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which may give some snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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So it now says colder in the North West instead of the South and East that was mentioned for the last few days. These forecasts are completely pointless they change pretty much everyday, you don't stand a hope in hell of working out what the weather is likely to be like in a week's time from reading them. Oh it might snow, no looks like being mild and dry, no wait looks like rain, oh it says cold again...

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