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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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12 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Meto 6-30 Outlook seem a bit wishy-washy hedgy-wedgy at the minute.  

This has been such an odd winter, it's almost like blind leading the blind this year!

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Friday 22 Feb 2019:

By Wednesday there are signals for predominantly settled weather to be in place across the UK, particularly across the southeast. Some rain and stronger winds are likely in the north and west; temperatures here may be above average or mild for the time of year. Overnight frost and fog is likely during this settled spell, particularly in the south and east where it is likely to be colder than average; with a possibility of snow showers from the east. This theme may last into the following week. There is low confidence in timings for a change to more unsettled conditions across the UK, but by the end of the week a transition to more mobile weather patterns is likely, however there is little confidence on the timing of this transition.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited by Summer Sun
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19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

moved it to march now lol, anyone reckons the next update will have snow for May Day Bank Holiday

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47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Good to see that the Met have finally picked up on the MJO signal.

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Just now, lassie23 said:

I've emailed them to ask them how April is looking, although I could hazard a guess

I'm hoping those 20+C uppers continue to build around the Mediterranean, and eventually give us a thundery breakdown!?

Though confidence is low, at this stage...?

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

image.thumb.png.97541dbe31370fe7e422deea64ccc0c3.png

?

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

moved it to march now lol, anyone reckons the next update will have snow for May Day Bank Holiday

My bet is June 2nd with a snow event including us southerners! ?

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UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Feb 2019 to Saturday 23 Feb 2019:

On Thursday and Friday some wet and windy weather will affect the north and northwest of Britain. Further south and east high pressure will bring largely settled weather with overnight frost and fog. The fog could be slow to clear during the mornings. It will be mild, and perhaps very mild in the north and west. Little overall change is expected through the weekend and start of the following week, although temperatures will return to normal, notably across the south and east, where it could become cold. Thereafter there is increasing uncertainty, although it is most likely that some wet and windy weather will arrive from the west, whilst high pressure to the north or northeast continues to give many parts dry weather, perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and this should help to give plenty of settled weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which could give further snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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So, it’s gone from cold in the south in yesterday’s update to mild, perhaps very mild in the north and west.  I suspect the metoffice themselves are frustrated with the models and winter this year.  I certainly wouldn’t want to be a forecaster there at the moment!

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and this should help to give plenty of settled weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which could give further snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Another change today and as expected, nor for the better, although not a dreadful update.  That said, I don’t think the rollercoaster ride is over yet!  Will be get lucky?

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

?

They have done it again, lulled us into chase and took it away one day later, not surprising though, the backtrack on the ensembles over the last 2 runs, definately game over now.

 

How many times has it been game over this year? ? Clutching at straws but I’m hoping for another flip in the coming days and this time, the models stick to it.  Wishful thinking at its best!

PS You were correct about the change in models overnight but unfortunately, they did not go the right way.......

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They should just split the country geographically and adjust percentage likelihood’s for diff weather types. 

Would be much more sensible and avoid the over analysis of their wording, day to day ......

 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast 

High pressure is not likely to be 'sat' to our north or northeast: it is likely to be 'sitting' to our north or northeast.  Grrr...even the professionals are getting sucked in by the modern state of grammar!  This aside, I have never known as much chopping and changing as frequently as this from the Met Office.

David

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