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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

 

I have already suggested that, perhaps, it has already occurred. The SSW does not mean that deep and long lasting cold will occur for the UK. 

 

I think that most of us know this, however, this SSW was expected to impact Britain and Ireland and it wasn't just the Met Office predicting this either, so were many other forecasters, professional as well as amateur. 

Further, it wasn't just the SSW that was favourable either, we have had periods of favourable MJO (as we again have), favourable GWO (as we again have), low solar activity and the wQBO wasn't up to full speed.

To be honest, I have no idea why we haven't achieved a proper high latitude block and it will good for a retrospective look once Winter is over to see where it all went wrong.

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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They still flagging up potentially colder Conditions, and the Easterly still not being dropped. I really hope they are onto something here, just checked the cps model backend of month and that shows some potentially interesting cold shots, they would probably trust a weather cone more over that model, but you never no

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UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 20 Feb 2019:

The new working week will start largely dry, bright and frosty with fairly settled conditions. However it will become more unsettled in the northwest early in the week, with strong winds and rain here at times. Any snow is likely to be confined to hills. Southern and eastern areas will have a good deal of dry and often bright weather although overnight fog may become increasingly likely. After a cold start most places should see temperatures around where we would expect for early February but with overnight frosts likely across central and southeastern areas. In these parts generally colder conditions may begin to develop again. Around the middle of the month, things become very uncertain. However there is an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions developing more widely again.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Feb 2019 to Thursday 7 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times, especially in the northwest. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Feb 2019 to Thursday 7 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times, especially in the northwest. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

There is a low likelihood that this outlook will be right.

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not sure here, or the moaning thread, but here goes.

we all know the track record of the 30 day forecast.. then i went onto the BBC website, and read another climate change article.. again from the Met Office, where they quote 90 percent confidence, but here they are talking about years into the future. It does seem a little strange

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47144058

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Met office 10-day trend

Wind and rain
High pressure next week
Frosty nights

Days 7-10

Higher pressure
Sunny days - Sun gaining in strength so feeling a little warmer
Frosty nights
Small chance turning more widely colder if we pull in chilly air from the continent

 

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18 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

not sure here, or the moaning thread, but here goes.

we all know the track record of the 30 day forecast.. then i went onto the BBC website, and read another climate change article.. again from the Met Office, where they quote 90 percent confidence, but here they are talking about years into the future. It does seem a little strange

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47144058

What does the 30 days forecast for the UK have to do with the article which is talking about global temperature trends? Two very separate things!

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18 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

not sure here, or the moaning thread, but here goes.

we all know the track record of the 30 day forecast.. then i went onto the BBC website, and read another climate change article.. again from the Met Office, where they quote 90 percent confidence, but here they are talking about years into the future. It does seem a little strange

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47144058

What's strange about it? I guarantee you that January 2020 will have a lower CET than July 2019 with 100% confidence.

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2019 to Thursday 21 Feb 2019:

Through next week the unsettled weather looks to be mainly in the north and west, with southern and eastern areas seeing the best of the dry and bright weather. Northwestern areas should see temperatures around where we would expect for early February, although it may get quite cold in the south and east, with overnight frost and fog likely where the skies are clear at night. Towards the end of this forecast, it is too early to say for sure what will happen, but there is a good chance we will see some wet and windy spells at times. This could bring a risk of snow to eastern or southern areas if it gets cold enough.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited by Summer Sun
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UK Outlook for Friday 22 Feb 2019 to Friday 8 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times, especially in the northwest. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited by Summer Sun
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'it is to early to say for certain' ...well I wish they had started every 30 dayer like that for the last few months and going by their accuracy would have prompted numerous posters on here hanging on every word they say not to take them as gospel.

Lets face it this winter they've been way off the mark...possibly other than the back end of January.

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29 minutes ago, karyo said:

I now follow those updates for my amusement more than anything else.

Yep, I said that a while back. People defend these updates but I think they should be totally scrapped past the 2 week period. It’s not a direct criticism of the METO as it’s a ridiculously tough forecast just that this forecast has been a farce all winter, it’s a complete guessing game.

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The Models are certainly following there script. An Easterly flow for the South, But as they say it's finely balanced as to if the Continental flow becomes strong enough to cover all the UK and how cold..

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