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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’m gonna have to agree now with@feb1991blizzard it’s game over . Just isn’t gonna happen this winter and I’m well gutted too . We had everything in are favour and the meto on board but it’s just not happened ?. My towel is in . 

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I think I will hang on to my towel until mid month.  Needed something to lift my spirits this morning with the snow disappearing, but that clearly hasn't happened!

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’m gonna have to agree now with@feb1991blizzard it’s game over . Just isn’t gonna happen this winter and I’m well gutted too . We had everything in are favour and the meto on board but it’s just not happened ?. My towel is in . 

AD2A4D7D-0146-48D1-9887-6D512371E737.jpeg

On the plus side Here is a line from the short term outlook

"There is increasing uncertainty thereafter however it is likely to remain similar"

BUT if it varies at all then the 16-30 dayer may as well be written on toilet paper.

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53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or whether we maintain more of an Atlantic influence with a more widely unsettled theme.

Far too much is read into these things when the bolded text actually instructs you not to.

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The weather doesn’t behave according to the UKMO outlook.

If it did we would have seen numerous snow events and eskimos floating down the Thames.

So best to keep an open mind and not follow these forecasts as if they’re Moses and engraved on tablets of stone .

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This thread, and the people in it haha...does make me laugh.

(not everyone) but certain people claiming winter is over for good now, because the MetO say so, and in the next breath saying how bad the MetO are at forecasting..........I find that hilarious, so thanks for the laughs haha

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43 minutes ago, Rambo said:

This thread, and the people in it haha...does make me laugh.

(not everyone) but certain people claiming winter is over for good now, because the MetO say so, and in the next breath saying how bad the MetO are at forecasting..........I find that hilarious, so thanks for the laughs haha

Yes, very true, and that's even with the MET themselves saying they have 'very low confidence' in what is going to happen.

Still, its good for a giggle on a drizzly Monday! ?

 

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3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The weather doesn’t behave according to the UKMO outlook.

If it did we would have seen numerous snow events and eskimos floating down the Thames.

So best to keep an open mind and not follow these forecasts as if they’re Moses and engraved on tablets of stone .

Have to agree with Nick here ^^... it seems to me they write these 30 dayers in line with likely climatology and as we had the ssw it put more weight in possibly being colder. So as we got closer to feb and the models came into the more reliable and it was clear that there was no chance of it becoming much colder or extreme cold they adjusted accordingly. Now we are getting ever closer to spring it is much more likely that we won’t have a cold spell or extreme cold so that’s what they’ve gone with and it’s hard to argue that the models are suggesting otherwise. So although I think there is still room for one last chance of cold shot if I were writing the update it would sound very much like the one the meto have put out. A real shame as I’ve wasted hours of my life this year getting excited to only have a dusting on one day. Grrrrr.....

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4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

feb - you've been gutted more times than a bloody findus haddock fillet twelve pack !

Birds eye cod better, particularly the big pieces of fish, anyway, i am just not seeing any strat influence, even Judah Cohen now confident of winters end. - mind you i really meant for the duration of the rest of Feb, we could still get a dumping in March i suppose.

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UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

Sunshine and blustery showers are likely through Sunday. However there is a chance of more persistent rain moving across central and southern areas. The new working week will start largely dry, bright and frosty before becoming more unsettled with strong winds and rain at times, particularly across northern and western areas. Further south and east it should remain drier and brighter. Any snow is likely to be confined to hills in the north, with most places seeing temperatures around where we would expect for early February. Around the middle of the month, things become very uncertain. However there is an increasing chance of it becoming somewhat more settled with drier and perhaps colder conditions developing. The greatest chance of unsettled milder conditions persisting is across the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 6 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 6 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards,? so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Lol not a clue.

download.jpg

Edited by booferking
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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A ticket for faux cold? Nah, you're alright.

But they have every wether type in there again ? There is still a chance we could squeeze something out of this . 

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11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A ticket for faux cold? Nah, you're alright.

Faux cold is better than mild at this time of year IMHO.

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11 minutes ago, March said:

That’s the most awkwardly worded update I’ve ever seen haha. 

Can't blame them tbh, it has been a very difficult winter to predict!

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I am a really big fan of the Met Office but mid term forecast say 15 days out has been abysmal (forget 30 days out really no clue the which is fair enough ) ...... despite huge increases in computing technology they failed to pick up serious movement of low pressure  systems pouring out of North America to skittle any chance of HLB

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1 hour ago, booferking said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 6 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards,? so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Lol not a clue.

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That is not true, they are being honest with the data they have, far more than you and I on Net Wx have access to. Also they are the professionals but they do get it wrong from time to time.

My comment on the so far 'non-appearance' in the UK of the surface effects from the SSW are this.

I have already suggested that, perhaps, it has already occurred. The SSW does not mean that deep and long lasting cold will occur for the UK. About the time of the first 'spike' in Polar 30 mb temperature, or rather the possible time lag after it, is when the very marked European trough developed, see below

image.thumb.png.66a48a291df4a448ed14769aabf22746.png

The very deep cold in parts of N America is also, perhaps, another part of this, but from the second spike, again, see below

image.thumb.png.862b11d5048466ea0f3b82e0996331a9.png

What puzzles me about UK Met 6-15 day outlooks through this year is their persistence with a rather similar phrase to what they are still using, sometimes more definite although it has been their 15-30 day outlooks that this phrase has appeared most often, 

'There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds'

What has kept appearing in their model outputs that they can access to keep this going for over 6 weeks now. That I do find rather surprising.

Certainly in the 6-15 day anomaly charts I use I have never seen anything other than 1 model and then only for a day or so (not long enough to give any confidence) of any kind of easterly likely to set up. In the 15-30 day outlooks that is beyond my confidence to give any guidance about but again I do wonder what they keep seeing.

 

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24 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

That is not true, they are being honest with the data they have, far more than you and I on Net Wx have access to. Also they are the professionals but they do get it wrong from time to time.

My comment on the so far 'non-appearance' in the UK of the surface effects from the SSW are this.

I have already suggested that, perhaps, it has already occurred. The SSW does not mean that deep and long lasting cold will occur for the UK. About the time of the first 'spike' in Polar 30 mb temperature, or rather the possible time lag after it, is when the very marked European trough developed, see below

image.thumb.png.66a48a291df4a448ed14769aabf22746.png

The very deep cold in parts of N America is also, perhaps, another part of this, but from the second spike, again, see below

image.thumb.png.862b11d5048466ea0f3b82e0996331a9.png

What puzzles me about UK Met 6-15 day outlooks through this year is their persistence with a rather similar phrase to what they are still using, sometimes more definite although it has been their 15-30 day outlooks that this phrase has appeared most often, 

'There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds'

What has kept appearing in their model outputs that they can access to keep this going for over 6 weeks now. That I do find rather surprising.

Certainly in the 6-15 day anomaly charts I use I have never seen anything other than 1 model and then only for a day or so (not long enough to give any confidence) of any kind of easterly likely to set up. In the 15-30 day outlooks that is beyond my confidence to give any guidance about but again I do wonder what they keep seeing.

 

I've never been completely convinced that the SSW was a clean split, like 2018's clearly was...? Having watched Gavin P's videos, it never really looked (to me, at least - and with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight!?) that the 'Goldilocks Scenario' was really quite there...

That is of course not to say that I didn't go along with the consensus, as clearly I did...But, looking back, I think the seeds-of-doubt have always been there; an intermediate situation, somewhere between the displacement of 2003 and the clean split of 2018...?

Anywho, once a proper scientific assessment has been carried-out, the whole meteorological community will be in a better place than it was before...What say you, Michael??

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