Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Mokidugway]

54 minutes ago, karyo said:

A continuation of gentle downgrades.

Or spring

[Don]

Hmm, no getting away from the fact that hopes for Feb are fading.

[Don]

One plus point is there is little to suggest a Bartlett setup establishing in that update.

[Don]

57 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Who cares, they’ve been crap all winter. 

I don’t think they have been crap.  It’s been a very complex winter regarding background signals and most forecasters have struggled recently.

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Feb 2019 to Monday 4 Mar 2019:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or we maintain more of an Atlantic influence, with a more widely unsettled theme continuing through second half of the month. At this stage, it looks as though Atlantic low pressure systems will track further to the south, with high pressure situated to the north. This set up would bring slightly wetter conditions across the south of the UK, with some strong winds at times. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions are likely in the north, although with some coastal showers possible. There is the possibility that frontal systems may bring wintry hazards, particularly if a more east or northeasterly flow develops. Temperatures overall around the average. Low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

The Atlantic dominated theme has to be favourite,,,quite confident of that 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The Atlantic dominated theme has to be favourite,,,quite confident of that 

If low pressure systems take a southerly track, that won't be too bad.

[Neiller22]

29 minutes ago, Don said:

I don’t think they have been crap.  It’s been a very complex winter regarding background signals and most forecasters have struggled recently.

They have been abysmal and there is no other way to describe it. Utterly pointless waste of time even putting them to print

[billy]

3 hours ago, Neiller22 said:

They have been abysmal and there is no other way to describe it. Utterly pointless waste of time even putting them to print

100% agree ....Its pathetic really given the money and info they have . 

They just cover just about every possible outcome in every update

 

Edited February 3, 2019 by billy

[Thinon]

I get that the Met Office has larger resources etc, but it's interesting how the same people on this forum who were predicting a new ice age for Jan/Feb, are the same people now blasting the Met Office for questionable long range forecasting and a desire to cover all bases. 

[Rambo]

4 hours ago, Thinon said:

I get that the Met Office has larger resources etc, but it's interesting how the same people on this forum who were predicting a new ice age for Jan/Feb, are the same people now blasting the Met Office for questionable long range forecasting and a desire to cover all bases. 

Have you got any evidence of that? I cant think of anyone, but I'll accept it if you have proof!

[Thinon]

Speaking of the MetO "covering all bases", what has the actual weather been like for most of us these last 7 days?

Cold? Yes. 
Mild? Yes. 
Rain? Yes. 
Snow? Yes.
Fine/sunny? Yes.

Can you blame them for not offering more certainty? In fact it proves their outlooks have been spot on if anything.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Sunshine and showers will affect most areas through the weekend. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent through Saturday, easing through Sunday. It will be windy with a risk of coastal gales, with temperatures around average. The new working week will start largely dry before wind and rain spreads across northern and western areas later on Monday and through Tuesday. Areas further south and east should remain drier and brighter. Any snow is likely to be confined to higher ground in the north, with near normal temperatures for most. There is increasing uncertainty thereafter however it is likely to remain similar. Cloud and rain will spread eastwards across the UK, but this will be interspersed with drier and brighter spells. Overall temperatures will remain close to average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 5 Mar 2019:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or whether we maintain more of an Atlantic influence with a more widely unsettled theme. What currently seems most likely is that there will be rain at times, particularly in the north and west where snow is possible over high ground, and a greater chance of drier, brighter and more settled spells across the south and east. There remains a low likelihood of colder conditions with east or south-easterly winds developing and an increased risk of snow. Temperatures overall are likely to be around average, possibly mild in the northwest at times, but there remains a low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 5 Mar 2019:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or whether we maintain more of an Atlantic influence with a more widely unsettled theme. What currently seems most likely is that there will be rain at times, particularly in the north and west where snow is possible over high ground, and a greater chance of drier, brighter and more settled spells across the south and east. There remains a low likelihood of colder conditions with east or south-easterly winds developing and an increased risk of snow. Temperatures overall are likely to be around average, possibly mild in the northwest at times, but there remains a low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

More downgrades. Notice the dropping of North Easterlies for South Easterlies, i think that's game over for both Winter and the Met Office.

[Weathizard]

‘Blocking redevelops’ Would need to actually have had some proper blocking before it can redevelop fella.

[feb1991blizzard]

Definitely game over now.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Definitely game over now.

Oh dear, that really is a poor update.  Glad I made the most of the snow at the weekend which is now well on the way out.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Don said:

Oh dear, that really is a poor update.  Glad I made the most of the snow at the weekend which is now well on the way out.

yes - ******* gutted.

[Scandinavian High.]

Game over I don’t think so .

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

yes - ******* gutted.

feb - you've been gutted more times than a bloody findus haddock fillet twelve pack !

[Don]

Just now, abbie123 said:

Game over I don’t think so .

Maybe not, but it's currently not looking good and the metoffice updates are downgrading each day!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear, that really is a poor update.  Glad I made the most of the snow at the weekend which is now well on the way out.

That's true; but, looking on the brights side, if it's as wrong as its predecessors, we might be on the cusp of something special?

[Don]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

That's true; but, looking on the brights side, if it's as wrong as its predecessors, we might be on the cusp of something special?

Problem is, it's bound to be correct now!

[ICE COLD]

I’m gonna have to agree now with@feb1991blizzard it’s game over . Just isn’t gonna happen this winter and I’m well gutted too . We had everything in are favour and the meto on board but it’s just not happened . My towel is in . 

[Weather Monkey]

On 10/01/2019 at 12:05, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 25 Jan 2019 to Friday 8 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather becoming established across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and more widespread frost, particularly across northern parts. However, there is uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Although there have been changes, that wasn't a bad forecast from 3 weeks out.