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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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Even though there was a downgrade during the week that LRF is still not bad at all. It is possible they have downgraded this week as the signals they have been expecting are not yet showing so rather than be left with egg on their face they have tempered the wording a little. Still an interesting month ahead and wouldn't rule out a repeat of last year yet.

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Updated again

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Feb 2019 to Saturday 2 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

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4 hours ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Updated again

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Feb 2019 to Saturday 2 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

Doh!

To be honest, the outlook hasn't really changed, it's just worded differently.

 

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3 hours ago, Don said:

Doh!

To be honest, the outlook hasn't really changed, it's just worded differently.

 

It is a backtrack somewhat to increased chances for colder conditions - there must still be a strong signal for potential colder weather towards month end, with easterlies.. I would certainly not cast the chance of this occurring. 

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3 hours ago, Don said:

Doh!

To be honest, the outlook hasn't really changed, it's just worded differently.

 

It is a backtrack somewhat to increased chances for colder conditions - there must still be a strong signal for potential colder weather towards month end, with easterlies.. I would certainly not cast the chance of this occurring. 

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41 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

It is a backtrack somewhat to increased chances for colder conditions - there must still be a strong signal for potential colder weather towards month end, with easterlies.. I would certainly not cast the chance of this occurring. 

That would be great.  Have had 10cm of snow overnight and today, so would be nice to get something from the east, too!

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UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Feb 2019 to Saturday 16 Feb 2019:

It will remain unsettled at the end of next week, with a mixture of sunshine and showers affecting many areas, especially on Thursday. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the north and west, where possibly wintry on hills. Driest conditions likely to persist in the southeast. A more organised band of cloud and rain may affect western and southwestern parts, with coastal gales, before moving east during Friday. The unsettled theme looks set to continue into the weekend and into the following week, with further Atlantic frontal systems bringing spells of wet and windy weather, with perhaps some hill snow in the north. However, there will be some quieter, colder interludes. Temperatures are likely to be near normal, but with fluctuate day-to-day, perhaps milder overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

well that seem to play it safe, a bit of everything thrown 

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UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or we maintain more of an Atlantic influence, with a more widely unsettled theme continuing through second half of the month. At this stage, it looks as though Atlantic low pressure systems will track further to the south, with high pressure situated to the north. This set up would bring slightly wetter conditions across the south of the UK, with some strong winds at times. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions are likely in the north, although with some coastal showers possible. There is the possibility that frontal systems may bring wintry hazards, particularly if a more east or northeasterly flow develops. Temperatures overall around the average. Low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

 

 

Think the fat lady is clearing her throat!!!!

Edited by Rascals Revenge
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UK Outlook for Friday 8 Feb 2019 to Sunday 17 Feb 2019:

It will remain unsettled at the end of next week. A more organised band of cloud and rain will move east during Friday. Meanwhile, Saturday sees rain clear to a mix of sunshine and showers with the most frequent showers likely in the north and west. Some of the showers will likely turn wintry over higher ground here too. The unsettled theme looks set to continue through Sunday and into the following week, with further Atlantic frontal systems bringing spells of wet and windy weather, with perhaps some hill snow in the north. However, there will be some quieter, colder interludes, with perhaps some wintry showers. Temperatures are likely to be near normal, but will fluctuate day-to-day, perhaps milder overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 18 Feb 2019 to Monday 4 Mar 2019:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or we maintain more of an Atlantic influence, with a more widely unsettled theme continuing through second half of the month. At this stage, it looks as though Atlantic low pressure systems will track further to the south, with high pressure situated to the north. This set up would bring slightly wetter conditions across the south of the UK, with some strong winds at times. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions are likely in the north, although with some coastal showers possible. There is the possibility that frontal systems may bring wintry hazards, particularly if a more east or northeasterly flow develops. Temperatures overall around the average. Low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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28 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or we maintain more of an Atlantic influence, with a more widely unsettled theme continuing through second half of the month. At this stage, it looks as though Atlantic low pressure systems will track further to the south, with high pressure situated to the north. This set up would bring slightly wetter conditions across the south of the UK, with some strong winds at times. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions are likely in the north, although with some coastal showers possible. There is the possibility that frontal systems may bring wintry hazards, particularly if a more east or northeasterly flow develops. Temperatures overall around the average. Low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

 

 

Think the fat lady is clearing her throat!!!!

That's yesterday's update, the met are very uncertain, and the fact they still keep mentioning wintry hazards and ENE winds means they still have signals emerging, an interesting last 3rd of the month me thinks

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's yesterday's update, the met are very uncertain, and the fact they still keep mentioning wintry hazards and ENE winds means they still have signals emerging, an interesting last 3rd of the month me thinks

Its todays update.

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It's all been a bit like following Brexit: Just around Xmas, we had Plan A (which got kicked into touch, by reality); Plan B - which was really plan A, but with a different label - also vanished without trace; and now, we can all look forward to plan C...Whatever that is!?

Anyone-else think this emojo looks like 1980s Michael Fish??

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