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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've always thought that Scandinavia was NW Europe...? Perhaps they really mean Greenland?:yahoo:?

Fair comment. I guess they mean towards us and Iceland....Which I think is classed as part of Europe! ?

But yes hints of retrogression that way it seems, week 2-3 of Feb. Lets hope so....

Edited by Southender
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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Feb 2019 to Thursday 28 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold wintry, showery days and more mobile days with Atlantic fronts bringing rain across the UK, and occasional milder interludes remain possible. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder, more easterly flow developing, though the signal for this has decreased in recent days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Rain and hill snow will clear later on Monday, however further rain, sleet and snow will possibly arrive from the west on Tuesday. It will stay mostly cold, with frost and ice likely overnight. Thereafter, it is likely to stay changeable, with further spells of rain, sleet and snow interspersed by sunshine and showers. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, although further colder interludes are still possible. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 30 dayer is a downgrade though - chance of an Easterly now late Feb, we will get an Easterly at some point - probably July, when we don't want one as that would bring heat then.

Yer it’s strange it says chance of even colder on this one but the longer one is a bit meh ?? Confused. Com 

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1 minute ago, cobbett said:

ah well the optimistic updates had to end sometime !

It’s strange because the the further outlook up to the 13th says there is an increased chance of even colder weather ?? 

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looks to me like they see the Canadian vortex persisting and keeping the northern arm strong. glosea must have lost its downwelling signal strength for later in feb over recent runs …….. could return ...

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Yeh, bizarre!! They state greater chance of much colder later in the period, then play it down a bit in the extended, blatantly obvious they ain't got a clue, on a positive note though, colder shots a plenty, so gonna be a continued risk of snow at times 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

looks to me like they see the Canadian vortex persisting and keeping the northern arm strong. glosea must have lost its downwelling signal strength for later in feb over recent runs …….. could return ...

Yes that’s true but why does it say greater chance of cold on the update up to the 13th Nick ?? 

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It’s strange because the the further outlook up to the 13th says there is an increased chance of even colder weather ?? 

Suppose as this is 2 weeks away it should be classed as low confidence anyway. Still at least its not showing raging south westerlies !

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As thought, cold spells similar to this current one look likely through February with some short lived snowfalls for some.  That’s about as good as it gets for now.

PS

It seems that as the BBC monthly upgrades the chance of cold, the Metoffice backs away?

Edited by Don
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32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looks to me like they see the Canadian vortex persisting and keeping the northern arm strong. glosea must have lost its downwelling signal strength for later in feb over recent runs …….. could return ...

Hopefully but I’m doubtful.

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53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Feb 2019 to Thursday 28 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold wintry, showery days and more mobile days with Atlantic fronts bringing rain across the UK, and occasional milder interludes remain possible. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder, more easterly flow developing, though the signal for this has decreased in recent days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

At last!!!! A more realistic forecast 

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3 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Just as the models start to hint at an easterly the Met Office downgrade. Ever get the feeling you're been taken for a ride?

Weather forecasting for you!  Having a break from the weather models at the moment.

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On 29/01/2019 at 13:36, lassie23 said:

had two days of cold lol

You only had two days of cold?? 

We had three days down here in South London. Tuesday to Friday afternoon. 2cm of snow. Amazing it was. ? ? 

It was truly memorable. Not! 

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