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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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I think the wrong one was posted ...here is todays

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

Updated: 14:24 on Tue 29 Jan 2019 GMT

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28 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just wandering where Don was, pretty sure he stated last night met office would be downgrading, well they stand firm. 

I’m here and it has downgraded....  somewhat watered down!

Edited by Don
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4 minutes ago, Don said:

I’m here and it has downgraded....  somewhat watered down!

That's a revised update, I'm starting to see that perhaps they don't really have a clue themselves, perhaps still favourable away from the NW, I wouldn't give up just yet though Don, tbh I don't think any meteorological services are covering themselves in much glory currently! 

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Just after I go on about the once daily updates they go and decide the 1st go on the 16 to 30 dayer wasn't right, so they had to have another go ?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

So it looks like the South East England is the place to be.?

But when it mentions RAIN, sleet and snow across the SE, it can hardly be described as a powerhouse Easterly.

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18 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

There could be the all important upgrades..

I doubt it once they have backtracked now. Having said that there will be further snow at times, particularly in the South East of England, if that update is correct.

I suppose if you are after a beast from the east 2019, it's definitely a downgrade.

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29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But when it mentions RAIN, sleet and snow across the SE, it can hardly be described as a powerhouse Easterly.

It just seems to be a continuation of what is going on currently, You would have to think it has rowed back after analysing the latest ECM 46 update

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28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But when it mentions RAIN, sleet and snow across the SE, it can hardly be described as a powerhouse Easterly.

It's a carefully worded downgrade. "Very cold" has gone, a move to average temps for next week is clear, and the previous report mentioned snow....and now its rain, sleet and snow. In addition we now have "some periods" when the wind may come from the east.

They could hardly U - turn within a day as it would leave them looking as average as forecasters as some of us excited amateurs are looking at the moment with our cold forecasts peaking with this week's disappointing transient wet mix. So - downgrade it gently...bit by bit, maybe at 48 hour intervals. 

I am genuinely not normally of a negative disposition - and if you follow the trail of my weather posts in winter for many years I will see snow whenever there is snow. But at the moment I'm looking at 2 more weeks of unremarkable, maybe slightly below average given the jet angle and cold generally spilling out to lower latitudes courtesy of the SSW - but no significant reversal of the flow. There is a chance then of lagged impacts from next week's MJO phase 7 hitting in mid Feb around school half term week - but we have to place this within the context of a season when such moments previously have not produced anything of note. Can this SSW still deliver? Of course - potentially we could have a very cold last half of Feb if everything clicks as we have expected it to - but for the next 10 days we slip now into another holding pattern and the suspicion has to be that whatever has conspired to break cold chances this winter so far will continue to do so.

I hope that is a cue for the coldest latter half of Feb on record. i'd happily wipe the egg off my face and reveal the grin underneath. 

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12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It's a carefully worded downgrade. "Very cold" has gone, a move to average temps for next week is clear, and the previous report mentioned snow....and now its rain, sleet and snow. In addition we now have "some periods" when the wind may come from the east.

They could hardly U - turn within a day as it would leave them looking as average as forecasters as some of us excited amateurs are looking at the moment with our cold forecasts peaking with this week's disappointing transient wet mix. So - downgrade it gently...bit by bit, maybe at 48 hour intervals. 

I am genuinely not normally of a negative disposition - and if you follow the trail of my weather posts in winter for many years I will see snow whenever there is snow. But at the moment I'm looking at 2 more weeks of unremarkable, maybe slightly below average given the jet angle and cold generally spilling out to lower latitudes courtesy of the SSW - but no significant reversal of the flow. There is a chance then of lagged impacts from next week's MJO phase 7 hitting in mid Feb around school half term week - but we have to place this within the context of a season when such moments previously have not produced anything of note. Can this SSW still deliver? Of course - potentially we could have a very cold last half of Feb if everything clicks as we have expected it to - but for the next 10 days we slip now into another holding pattern and the suspicion has to be that whatever has conspired to break cold chances this winter so far will continue to do so.

I hope that is a cue for the coldest latter half of Feb on record. i'd happily wipe the egg off my face and reveal the grin underneath. 

What has transpired essentially is the vortex split wasn't favourable to our location, due to weak downwelling compared to the 2018 event, courtesy of the very strong wave activity associated with last years SSW, we ended up with  lobes of Vortex in the wrong place, where by any attempt at retrogressing was flattened time and again.

This is one of those SSW that has not delivered. We just have to be content with a continuation of the current pattern.

Edited by Bricriu
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Great post by Catacol there.

You can say what you like, today’s 16-30 is a blatant downgrade. Doesn’t mean it’s over for seeing a much colder spell of weather mid to late February but it’s looking less likely and has been for a few days now.

I can see why the Met waited for the latest EC46 before making adjustments to the wording of the 16-30. Probably just to confirm their thoughts and what their own long range model GLOSEA was showing.

Well I doubt we will forget this winter in a hurry..sadly probably for the wrong reasons! Lots for the experts to learn from once winter is over. Let’s see what Thursday into Friday brings us along with possible other opportunities in February.

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Just after I go on about the once daily updates they go and decide the 1st go on the 16 to 30 dayer wasn't right, so they had to have another go ?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I'm not sure why you thought your original post was the update, the date stamp never changed when I was viewing it.

As I said the other day, give it a couple of days. 'Generally cold' just below average, a normal end to winter with snow where expected, ie hills and the north. Normal end to winter.

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I think realistically the chances of genuine cold weather are now low for February.  I think any cold will be similar in nature to last week and what we are experiencing now.  Obviously places will see some surprise snow falls but they will tend to be short lived.  I hope we do indeed see very cold weather taking hold in the second half of the month but expectations need to be kept in check.  As I said before this winter feels poorer than it is in reality due to high expectations in December.

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5 minutes ago, Why said:

What's the difference between genuine cold and just cold? I mean, we've only had a dusting in higher parts of Sheffield today, but it is genuinely cold ?

Deep cold like February/March last year.  

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35 minutes ago, Don said:

I think realistically the chances of genuine cold weather are now low for February.  I think any cold will be similar in nature to last week and what we are experiencing now.  Obviously places will see some surprise snow falls but they will tend to be short lived.  I hope we do indeed see very cold weather taking hold in the second half of the month but expectations need to be kept in check.  As I said before this winter feels poorer than it is in reality due to high expectations in December.

As you say the forecast hardly says consistent mild, cold in the main, with significant chance of wintry precipitation at times, possibly more of what we have had this week and last week, but I suspect we will see more blocking to the north - hence the drier signal for the north and west, which suggests heights more to the NW.

Expectations for this winter on the cold front have been very high it seems - given some of the bullish suggestions at the start of the winter, and possible developments following the SSW, and also I think because we had the cold spell at end of Feb and early March last year, these has raised expectations,they tend to be higher on the back of an average or colder than average winter.

Thankfully we are being spared a winter like 13/14, or 15/16.

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A fairly decent update on the BBC Monthly Outlook:

 

Monday 11 February—Sunday 24 February

Chance of colder weather setting in

There is an increasing risk of significant cold weather as we move through the middle of February. This is because we expect the high pressure currently situated over Scandinavia to shift westwards towards north-west Europe. The effects of this are similar to those described for the first full week of February i.e. reduced 'mild' westerly winds from the Atlantic, and an increasing chance of cold east or north-easterly winds reaching the UK. If this happens there will be an increased risk of snow and ice affecting the UK. 
Although the risk of cold weather has increased, it is by no means certain. There is a chance that the Scandinavian high pressure area will remain less of a feature, leaving the UK in a cool and unsettled pattern with winds coming in from the west or north-west. There is a roughly 30% chance of this, underlining that the forecast for this period of the winter remain rather uncertain.

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2 minutes ago, Thinon said:

A fairly decent update on the BBC Monthly Outlook:

 

Monday 11 February—Sunday 24 February

Chance of colder weather setting in

There is an increasing risk of significant cold weather as we move through the middle of February. This is because we expect the high pressure currently situated over Scandinavia to shift westwards towards north-west Europe. The effects of this are similar to those described for the first full week of February i.e. reduced 'mild' westerly winds from the Atlantic, and an increasing chance of cold east or north-easterly winds reaching the UK. If this happens there will be an increased risk of snow and ice affecting the UK. 
Although the risk of cold weather has increased, it is by no means certain. There is a chance that the Scandinavian high pressure area will remain less of a feature, leaving the UK in a cool and unsettled pattern with winds coming in from the west or north-west. There is a roughly 30% chance of this, underlining that the forecast for this period of the winter remain rather uncertain.

I've always thought that Scandinavia was NW Europe...? Perhaps they really mean Greenland?:yahoo:?

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