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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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Yes  METO still going for it  despite usual posters saying they will change their outlook to less cold, every single day and every single day the met say the same. Stalemate?

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19 minutes ago, Don said:

No sign of a backtrack in either update today.  If they stand firm tomorrow, I think the prospects for Feb will be good.

agree - if the same tune is being played by Wednesdays issue once they have crunched the latest 46

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5 minutes ago, sausage said:

well by the emoji does that mean bad?! if so its been a total garbage waste of time following it n being excited by it! scrap it if thats the case.

Latest run will be tonight. 

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3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Yes  METO still going for it  despite usual posters saying they will change their outlook to less cold, every single day and every single day the met say the same. Stalemate?

....and every single day there is nothing in the modelling to suggest this. And every single day the meto outlook, which sounds really good, is being pushed back day by day. Soon it will mention March!

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5 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

....and every single day there is nothing in the modelling to suggest this. And every single day the meto outlook, which sounds really good, is being pushed back day by day. Soon it will mention March!

It states very cold during February, and even if it is March, then great a repeat of last year, go stand outside and tell me if you feel a raging westerly wind and rain followed by showers!! The second beast is coming!! ?

 

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2 hours ago, Lloyds32 said:

....and every single day there is nothing in the modelling to suggest this. And every single day the meto outlook, which sounds really good, is being pushed back day by day. Soon it will mention March!

.......nothing in the publicly available models maybe......oh, and most of those publicly available models dont go that far lol

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3 minutes ago, Rambo said:

.......nothing in the publicly available models maybe......oh, and most of those publicly available models dont go that far lol

If I remember correctly, there was nothing showing in the publicly available models initially when the metoffice started to forecast a very cold end to November/December 2010.

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Why should the EC 'Greenland height rises' 46 have any sway on what the Metoffice predict in the next update? It's been pretty useless wrt our weather this season IMO so if I was the Metoffice, I'd sooner use my own intuition!

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2 hours ago, Lloyds32 said:

....and every single day there is nothing in the modelling to suggest this. And every single day the meto outlook, which sounds really good, is being pushed back day by day. Soon it will mention March!

I seem to recall them favouring cool to cold conditions developing during January and here we are. Nothing is being pushed back - they've been very bullish about the cold potential into February, with the potential for brief milder interludes in between the general cold pattern. Time will tell whether they end up being correct. 

They will mention March when the 30-dayer reaches March. Time works that way ?

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I think that there is a disconnect between their two mid term forecasts. First one, where the words have suggested less chance of an easterly/ north easterly, to the second one that then talks about cold or very cold in its first sentence. I think they will downgrade the 2nd, 16-30, soon. I expect that their concentration is going into the 2 lows and it’s possible impact. Hope I am wrong but just how I see it. 

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The METO update this morning continues to be very bullish mid February vis cold or very cold with predominately easterly or north easterly winds This remains very much at odds with this morning's EC46 update. For that period the latterhas  ridging into Iceland/Greenland with positive anomalies and the Azores pushing north over the UK  Thus  WSW upper flow with temps not a long way from average. I can only assume the METO model and other indicators are indicating a much stronger block in the Greenland Arctics region orientated in a manner to advect colder in from Asia

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I see the Meto are still sticking to there guns. I’ve been hearing for days to expect changes in the long range wording. Ironically now I’ve made this post they will change on the lunch time update?

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5 hours ago, knocker said:

The METO update this morning continues to be very bullish mid February vis cold or very cold with predominately easterly or north easterly winds This remains very much at odds with this morning's EC46 update. For that period the latterhas  ridging into Iceland/Greenland with positive anomalies and the Azores pushing north over the UK  Thus  WSW upper flow with temps not a long way from average. I can only assume the METO model and other indicators are indicating a much stronger block in the Greenland Arctics region orientated in a manner to advect colder in from Asia

Remember though, that the upcoming update in about 20 minutes or so will be the first update to actually include last nights EC46, they don't actually update in the middle of the night even though it has that time stamp - Summer Sun knows more about that though.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Remember though, that the upcoming update in about 20 minutes or so will be the first update to actually include last nights EC46, they don't actually update in the middle of the night even though it has that time stamp - Summer Sun knows more about that though.

Today's update is normally around the middle of the afternoon

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Today's update is normally around the middle of the afternoon

Its really confusing but i am sure Gavin (Summer Sun) posts it around 12 Oclock, i don't know how he knows but he generally does get it spot on, i think it might be a problem with caching, as people get the EPS London graph before me as well, then i tried using E as opposed to Google Chrome and it works now.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its really confusing but i am sure Gavin (Summer Sun) posts it around 12 Oclock, i don't know how he knows but he generally does get it spot on, i think it might be a problem with caching, as people get the EPS London graph before me as well, then i tried using E as opposed to Google Chrome and it works now.

Yeh Feb, I've noticed summer sun gets the updated version posted a good hour before I get access to it through my own Google search, so credit to him for that, think perhaps he as a little inside knowledge with the met boys myself!! ?

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yeh Feb, I've noticed summer sun gets the updated version posted a good hour before I get access to it through my own Google search, so credit to him for that, think perhaps he as a little inside knowledge with the met boys myself!! ?

I think you can apply to recieve updates to your phone, perhaps he does that, as i don't even bother with the site for this purpose now, SS been first port of call for years now, anyway he will be along in a bit.

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its really confusing but i am sure Gavin (Summer Sun) posts it around 12 Oclock, i don't know how he knows but he generally does get it spot on, i think it might be a problem with caching, as people get the EPS London graph before me as well, then i tried using E as opposed to Google Chrome and it works now.

Confusing it is as I get it from this METO site. Presumably Gavin gets an earlier view

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Confusing it is as I get it from this METO site. Presumably Gavin gets an earlier view

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Yes - he says ignore the time stamp and it only actually updates once a day (around now) which makes sense really as little point updating a 30 dayer at 2am and twice a day as it isn't really the most pressing issue on their minds (particularly this week).

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Confusing it is as I get it from this METO site. Presumably Gavin gets an earlier view

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

It's a caching issue which means some browsers take longer to get it

As @feb1991blizzard said this and the 6 to 15 dayer only update once a day normally between 11am and 1pm

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