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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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hope it gets pushed back to March.That seems to be when we get the real cold and some who hit the jackpot the big snows.March the new winter month in the Uk??❄️️⛸⛷?

.Tha

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frost, however there remains some uncertainty. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder interludes, bringing a risk of more significant snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast


Defo one of the best long term MetO updates I've read. At least there's still that glimmer of hope of something special. 

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Recognising that any polar blocking will be later that expected but not ruled out.The Canadian vortex  stubbornly dictating our weather  until that weakens further then it looks like more cold but not deep cold north westeries for now and marginal snowfalls..

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So the *chance* for 'very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds' pushed deeper into February now, oh well, we continue, increasingly forlornly, to live in hope!

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

It's been put back to mid-Feb now...Cold summer coming, at this rate!?

I make it a full month now for the "put back". From mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Any references to cold, snow in this update and their 'other' update are just 'the scraps', which is a theme i've been peddling for last couple of weeks. Our islands continue to stick two fingers up to global weather patterns and expectations of the 'clever people'. Maybe a repeat of late Feb/March 2018 is on the cards? If not, a very early warm Spring would be most welcome.

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15 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

I’m struggling to see what’s so great about this update! Very very similar to yesterday’s and if anything a push back of the very cold. I mean please correct me if wrong as I’m normally very positive about these updates. It’s ok for sure but not amazing 

Agreed! I have mentioned the gentle push back several weeks ago and sadly it is still continuing.

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4 hours ago, Nick F said:

So the *chance* for 'very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds' pushed deeper into February now, oh well, we continue, increasingly forlornly, to live in hope!

Yep, the same trend continues.

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3 hours ago, karyo said:

Agreed! I have mentioned the gentle push back several weeks ago and sadly it is still continuing.

Exactly, that's why I have pretty much thrown in the towel now, even though it's only the 21st January.  Absolutely no disrespect to the Metoffice or any of the knowledgeable posters in here, I think we have simply been extremely unlucky this year.  Still time for things to turn around but I'm not optimistic.

However, it's all relative really as we're a million miles away from the likes of 1988/89 and at least we have some 'colder' weather in the pipeline.  It's all made far worse with the great background signals and what the winter could have been!

Edited by Don
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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

lol if it was more firm about things and didn't mention uncertainty again, i would be a lot happier

I understand that, but back in the real world, weather is unpredictable, especially at that range, and even more so for the UK. If we were 50yrs into an ice age with the ice caps just touching Scotland, then I dare say the MetO would be firm on cold weather in a month's time. As that isnt the case, you aren't gonna get that level of certainty I'm afraid!

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UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 5 Feb 2019:

Sunday will be cold with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. The showers will arrive on a strong northerly wind, which will ease as the day progresses, and bring some snowfall over exposed northern hills. The snow may reach lower levels later in the day, especially across the northern half of the UK. Thereafter, the final few days of January and early February are likely to remain rather unsettled with brisk winds, outbreaks of rain and hill snow, as well as some showery interludes in between. It will remain cold for most with widespread overnight frosts as well as the risk of ice. Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 20 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frosts. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder spells, and these will bring a risk of some significant snow, but only if very cold air becomes established across much of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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‘As we head through February’ 

 

YAWN. First it was late December early January, then it was early January to mid January then it was mid January to late January then late January to early febuary and so on and so on.

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In al lfairness to the Met office, I've been looking at the forecast from the 4th January for this week, this is what it reads:

Quote

UK Outlook for Friday 18 Jan 2019 to Friday 1 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, the weather is likely to be on the mild side. Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

Got to say, that sounds pretty good in terms of general pattern, but if anything they have slightly overdone the MILD air, not the cold...

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