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Meto Uk Further Outlook

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13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Good so bitter north easterlies and heavy snow showers arriving for Feb, by the sound of thar update, just get next week over then its BOOM  looking forward to sledging in the downs in just over a weeks time. WINTER 2018/2019 took your time ⛸️⛸️⛸️❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄⛄⛄😂😂😂😂😂

 

The METO update sounds like they have covered all bases and don’t want to commit to anything. 

Could be mild, could be dry, could see snow, probably frosty. Very poor IMO. 

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They should really be 100% certain at more than 2 weeks out...

Edited by MattStoke

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25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That looks to me like they think they know what coming but they have no idea how it actually arrives or when it arrives .....

 

If indeed it even arrives at all, hence the line ‘however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty.’

Been the story of this winter, but still plenty of time for it to change.

 

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Much as the models have delayed any real chance of cold, so the Met Office outlook continues to say a higher chance of cold, but always in the later period. Plenty of caveats in there too. We shall see. 

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38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 25 Jan 2019 to Sunday 3 Feb 2019:

On Friday, southeastern areas are likely to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry, bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the east. Thereafter, an unsettled period of weather is possible with further band of rain moving southeast across the UK, with brighter and showery weather in between. Snow is also possible in some northern and central areas at times as it turns increasingly cold with overnight frosts, although some brief milder interludes are possible too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Do central areas mean the Midlands or the north of England, say around yorkshire and cumbria? that's about the middle of the island?

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Well well well,  mogreps behind the curve as per usual ......

How exactly  its been forecasting cold for weeks now? 

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I think you can get just as good forecast on here or just looking at the models yourself. You would of thought the met with all there millions of pounds of equipment would do slightly better. But it seems we can see the changes in the forecast before they do. Not knocking them but expect better.

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40 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

How exactly  its been forecasting cold for weeks now? 

Because, the eps were pretty clear yesterday morning that the easterly was gone with only a couple clusters to hang onto. The wording of the forecast and tweet from Marco clearly shows that they had other modelling available which contradicted (somewhat) this eps guidance .....the only guidance that could be is MOGREPS .... it’s a two week ens tool which they use in conjunction with the eps to cover the 15 day period. 

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16 minutes ago, minus 9 said:

I think you can get just as good forecast on here or just looking at the models yourself. You would of thought the met with all there millions of pounds of equipment would do slightly better. But it seems we can see the changes in the forecast before they do. Not knocking them but expect better.

Quite a few people on here would concur .......their software makes analysis of the modelling a lot faster, focussed and easier than we could manage though. However, on the occasions that mogreps is leading the way, they are clearly at an advantage! 

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Into February it is...so everybody getting excited about getting cold in the heart of winter was for nothing, next stop cold into the second half of February.:oldlaugh:

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6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Into February it is...so everybody getting excited about getting cold in the heart of winter was for nothing, next stop cold into the second half of February.:oldlaugh:

The met office doesn't seem to have a scooby, we will have to rely on the ahem experts in the Mod thread instead🤐

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This cold potential is continually being put back.  Late December, early January, mid January, late January and now February!  That’s why I’m giving up on this winter.  Something is not playing ball.

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I have a feeling that they will start to drop references to very cold in the extended soon.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I have a feeling that they will start to drop references to very cold in the extended soon.

Yes, unless the GLOSEA is showing a scandi high around 10th feb or something - beginning to think now thats our only chance - all in on a scandi hight, the most risky and would now need to re-orientate a few times while in situ because col pool is decaying to the East - long shot but probably worth the risk now.

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22 hours ago, MattStoke said:

They should really be 100% certain at more than 2 weeks out...

I don't think so - just shows - even though models that they have and we can't see plus the models we can see show this or that beyond 4/5 days - it's a total "guessing game" that much far ahead - so we're still at 7 - 10 days flailing around in the dark - amateurs and pros alike - the science of meteorology has to take another leap forward - especially in winter - before being able to really get a handle on the weather so far out - these super computers even at 100 million pounds are still struggling to crunch the numbers and churn out spot on forecasts

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UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:

Changeable on Saturday with rain and hill snow clearing southeastwards, to leave a brighter and showery picture for the remainder of the weekend. Showers will be of a wintry mix with snow possible at lower levels, particularly in the north and it will be windy with coastal gales probable in the north and west. Thereafter, the final few days of January and early February are likely to remain rather unsettled with brisk winds, outbreaks of rain and hill snow, as well as some showery interludes in between. It will remain cold for most with widespread overnight frosts as well as the risk of ice. Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frost, however there remains some uncertainty. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder interludes, bringing a risk of more significant snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Could have been worse tbh .uncertainty is the key word tho lol

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It's been put back to mid-Feb now...Cold summer coming, at this rate!😁

Edited by Ed Stone

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frost, however there remains some uncertainty. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder interludes, bringing a risk of more significant snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYyEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSss

Still looking cold 🥶 

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

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But feb it’s now way into February now , so there can be no confidence in that what so ever ? 

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