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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not sure getting confused ?‍♂️. The ecm does not have N to NE winds end of the week . And staying cold to very cold is not on the ecm . Do you reckon the ecm has gone to far Nick and it will pull slightly back west . Obviously not all the way back to the outputs we’ve been seeing ? 

True ECM doesn't show it but the UKMO does.

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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3 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

It's clear the UKMO are just going with a blend of their own model for now. If the 12z continue to be poor and become more consistent in backing away from the colder air, then I suspect it will change again tomorrow. As the mention of E winds and coastal snow showers has been removed, I suspect they are also backing away from the Easterly. 

Yer that’s true but it’s still got cold to very cold . And the only way it could be very cold is from the NE or E ? 

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer that’s true but it’s still got cold to very cold . And the only way it could be very cold is from the NE or E ? 

Yes, a cold N to NE flow this week until the pattern sinks later on...next weekend Aka GFS, ICON etc.... it just seems to me that the wording is moving towards that scenario. 

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29 minutes ago, Don said:

How does a cold or very cold north/northeasterly airstream give rain or snow at this time of the year?  I would have thought it would be snow all the way?  Unless they are referring to coastal districts ref rain?

Exactly! Who wrote this update? Carol Kirkwood? lol

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Looks like the Mets outlook is on dodgy ground also going by this evening's runs adding to the downward trends...might get a couple of frosts in the forecast tomorrow

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As I have said numerous times this winter the MetO 30 dayer has been generally poor in it's outlooks since November onwards, wouldn't at all surprise me if they've called the colder weather at the end of January into February incorrect as well...time will only tell.

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1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Looks like the Mets outlook is on dodgy ground also going by this evening's runs adding to the downward trends...might get a couple of frosts in the forecast tomorrow

Barring another flip by ECM on this evening’s run, you could well be right. You could already sense the beginnings of back peddling (uncertainties) in today’s updates. Yesterday’s had more confidence in the way they were worded.

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UK Outlook for Friday 25 Jan 2019 to Sunday 3 Feb 2019:

On Friday, southeastern areas are likely to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry, bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the east. Thereafter, an unsettled period of weather is possible with further band of rain moving southeast across the UK, with brighter and showery weather in between. Snow is also possible in some northern and central areas at times as it turns increasingly cold with overnight frosts, although some brief milder interludes are possible too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That looks to me like they think they know what coming but they have no idea how it actually arrives or when it arrives .....

 

needs to get a move on now, becuase the clock it ticking /!

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Good so bitter north easterlies and heavy snow showers arriving for Feb, by the sound of thar update, just get next week over then its BOOM  looking forward to sledging in the downs in just over a weeks time. WINTER 2018/2019 took your time ⛸️⛸️⛸️❄️❄️❄️❄️?????

 

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