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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Updates today seem a bit odd, in that there is no mention of the possible easterly next week.

Sometimes I find these updates run a bit behind the trends of the models sometimes. I remember the beast from the east updates they were going for the extended deep cold for a bit of a while after the GFS hinted it would break down in early March.

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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3 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

The easterly is before this period is it not 

The 14 day does not mention it either  infact says snow showers  North West    who knows

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yesterday the chance of snow at low levels was greater in the north and east. Today north and northwest. This indicates more chance of north/northwesterlies than easterlies.

Yes but it might be rain coming in from the west hitting cold air from the east and it not  making a great deal further east ?? 

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Just now, weirpig said:

The 14 day does not mention it either  infact says snow showers  North West    who knows

Yes, more likely to be a northerly veering northwesterly at times. 

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes but it might be rain coming in from the west hitting cold air from the east and it not  making a great deal further east ?? 

Could be but you'd think they would mention wintry/snow showers in the eastern coasts at least.

I suppose the main thing is that both updates are cold and wintry overall so that's good.

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's because they don't issue a new one, each and every time a computer models flips...

Pretty such it’s not just one model that has flipped ? Plus yesterday it said wintry showers were particularly likely in the east, suggesting an easterly wind. Today it doesn’t say that, despite numerous computer models showing an increased likelihood of easterly winds.

Edited by MattStoke
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Just now, ICE COLD said:

No one can say fore sure what way the cold is coming from that do not mention NE ,N ,NE or E . It says very cold good enough for me . 

Indeed  infact the met office 10 day update ( which gav posted)  says wind direction  unsure.   so everything still up in the air.

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Could be but you'd think they would mention wintry/snow showers in the eastern coasts at least.

I suppose the main thing is that both updates are cold and wintry overall so that's good.

Yer there both good . It’s just a bit of fence sitting for now . ?

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Just now, weirpig said:

Indeed  infact the met office 10 day update ( which gav posted)  says wind direction  unsure.   so everything still up in the air.

Exactly mate . Fence sitting for now . Both updates are good ?

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Fence sitting or a more realistic assessment for UK weather in coming days and weeks? Either way it is mid-Winter and the reading screams bulk standard UK mid-Winter weather.

A cold spell on its way in the middle of Winter and there's snow on hills and in the North. Unusual? Nah.

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30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Friday 15 Feb 2019:

Cold and sometimes very cold weather will continue as we head through the first half of February. It is likely to remain changeable too, especially at first, bringing strong winds and spells of rain which will turn to snow at times. Snow will mainly affect higher ground in the north, but there is a greater risk to lower levels too with the cold air in place. Some drier and brighter periods are possible as well, perhaps becoming focused across the northwest with time. Occasional milder and wetter interludes may intersperse the generally cold conditions, these most likely in the south but also posing a more significant risk of snow and ice.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

It mentions changeable weather, with indicates a Westerly weather direction but strangely says dries and brighter in the North West indicating an Easterly.

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10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It mentions changeable weather, with indicates a Westerly weather direction but strangely says dries and brighter in the North West indicating an Easterly.

But I wouldn't call last year's BFTE 'settled' exactly, MS: a full-on blizzard, one minute; sunshine, the next was, I think, rather 'changeable'?

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42 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Fence sitting or a more realistic assessment for UK weather in coming days and weeks? Either way it is mid-Winter and the reading screams bulk standard UK mid-Winter weather.

A cold spell on its way in the middle of Winter and there's snow on hills and in the North. Unusual? Nah.

In recent years it is unusual to have a cold spell in the middle of winter. 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Confidence is low for Tuesday, but outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow will probably edge southeastwards across the country, perhaps giving the risk of some snow to lower levels on the leading edge. Strong winds and wintry showers will follow, especially around windward coasts and hills and it will be cold, especially so in the wind, which will accentuate how cold it feels. Thereafter, it will remain cold and often changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, perhaps with an increased chance of snow to low levels in the north and northwest, but with the potential elsewhere at times too. Some drier and brighter interludes are possible, bringing overnight frosts, which will be widespread and locally severe in any longer clear spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Is this definitely the latest forecast? It reads differently for me:

D633A3E7-E0D0-45ED-B416-20BF15E11050.thumb.png.bc6d7cf83c296673d990dd9dc784e309.png

no mention there of snow to low levels most likely in the North and North West....unless I’m going completely mad and missing this?

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6 minutes ago, snowking said:

Is this definitely the latest forecast? It reads differently for me:

D633A3E7-E0D0-45ED-B416-20BF15E11050.thumb.png.bc6d7cf83c296673d990dd9dc784e309.png

no mention there of snow to low levels most likely in the North and North West....unless I’m going completely mad and missing this?

Im now confused.  Prefer that one though.  its changed  you are right that must have been an old update

Edited by weirpig
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Confidence is low for Tuesday, but outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow will probably edge southeastwards across the country, perhaps giving the risk of some snow to lower levels on the leading edge. Strong winds and wintry showers will follow, especially around windward coasts and hills and it will be cold, especially so in the wind, which will accentuate how cold it feels. Thereafter, it will remain cold and often changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, perhaps with an increased chance of snow to low levels in the north and northwest, but with the potential elsewhere at times too. Some drier and brighter interludes are possible, bringing overnight frosts, which will be widespread and locally severe in any longer clear spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

The met office have updated the forecast since its issue

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow for many areas on Tuesday with a chance of snow to low levels but the details of this are currently uncertain. Strong winds are also possible in the southwest. Showery conditions will follow although some brighter weather is also possible later in the week. Thereafter, remaining cold and possibly turning very cold, accentuated by brisk winds which will last through until the end of January. Frontal zones may arrive from the northwest at times bringing spells of rain, sleet and snow. However, some drier and brighter interludes are still likely and these will bring overnight frosts, which will be widespread and locally severe, especially in any longer clear spells.

Edited by Summer Sun
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